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Matt Kemp

Postby RynMan » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:41 pm

Seems like I'm missing something here. The Dodgers outfield is pretty crowded, so he probably isn't going to be a starter. The guy is only 23 this year and had big time numbers in the minors, so he needs to play everyday. Are the Dodgers going to have him start at AAA come opening day? Surely they aren't content to have him waste away on the bench. Is this guy as good as his numbers indicate? Why doesn't he get the talk?

PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.
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Postby thedude » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:50 pm

Well of the Dodgers players, Eithier, pierre, Louis Gonzalez, and Kemp, Kemp is probably the most talented and would probably put up the best numbers this year. So if the Dodgers were smart, he would start the year in the majors. However the fact the Dodgers resigned Nomar, when Loney was clearly ready, tells you something about the Dodgers...


Anyway, I really hope this kid gets 400 ML atbats this year ( age please catch up with Gonzo !+) )
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby Steve-o » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:29 pm

RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time. The PFM has a different line:

under 400 AB, with 16/16 season.

But you're right. The dodgers are not being very smart. Both Kemp and Loney are ready and should be starting.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Mar 13, 2007 9:48 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:Kemp has a whol in hsi swing a mile wide. He is like Pedro Cerano, dude can't hit a curve ball


So, you are telling me no one in AAA (where Kemp hit .368 last year) or AA (where Kemp hit .327 last year) can throw a curve ball?
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Postby Prooks25 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 10:05 pm

deerayfan072 wrote:Kemp has a whol in hsi swing a mile wide. He is like Pedro Cerano, dude can't hit a curve ball


You're completely right. He cannot come close to the curve ball.

But the real problem here is...why would the Dodger keep him with the pro team and let him waste away on the bench? He should be playing full time somewehere. Whether it be with the pro team (Andre Either can't shine Kemp's shoes) or in AAA. So he can work on hitting the curve.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:20 pm

Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time. The PFM has a different line:

under 400 AB, with 16/16 season.

But you're right. The dodgers are not being very smart. Both Kemp and Loney are ready and should be starting.


Exactly. PECOTA projects what the player would do given the opportunity but adjusted for how much they think a player of that skill-level would be allowed to play and how much a player with their injury risk would be able to play. Kemp has the skill-level to start for many teams and he's not an injury risk any more than any other young outfielder so PECOTA is bullish on him.

Their PFM may end up getting bumped down even further once the LA outfield situation stratifies some more through ST. I'd expect that AB forecast to drop down into the low-300's and all of the counting stats drop accordingly.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby RynMan » Wed Mar 14, 2007 12:54 am

Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.


Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:26 am

RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.


Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.


Young players with lots of talent that produce big numbers in small sample sizes can put PECOTA into fits so I don't know how much I'd read into that. Take a look at Lincecum's PECOTA forecast for example. I love Lincecum's future as a pitcher but those PECOTA numbers are a tad on the ridiculous side. :-b
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Re: Matt Kemp

Postby thedude » Wed Mar 14, 2007 1:30 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
RynMan wrote:PECOTA also has him pegged for an excellent season - 20/20 with a .295 AVG.


The PECOTA cards are almost like Zips in that they do not attempt to project playing time.


Yeah, you are right on that one. However, it still speaks to how the system views his talent. If given a full season, he would produce a very nice year.


Young players with lots of talent that produce big numbers in small sample sizes can put PECOTA into fits so I don't know how much I'd read into that. Take a look at Lincecum's PECOTA forecast for example. I love Lincecum's future as a pitcher but those PECOTA numbers are a tad on the ridiculous side. :-b


Well Kemp actually has a few full seasons of minor league ball which is what PECOTA is basing its predictions off of. True PECOTA can't tell if Kemp has a hole in his swing, but it can tell that it didn't hurt him in the minors.
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