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Coors effect.

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Postby LCBOY » Thu Dec 04, 2003 5:51 pm

As fans we need to readjust of thinking about Rockies pitchers. A 5.00 ERA in Colorado is good. But we've been "taught" as baseball fans that a 5.00 ERA is bad, which it is any for any normal ballpark.

Also, the Rockies' problems is their offense. There offense has never been good enough. This may sound strange but let me explain. No matter how good the rockies pitchers are, they will always have a 5.00+ team ERA, even if they had five Randy Johnsons. In there 11 year history the Rockies have averaged 861 runs scored and 907 runs allowed per season. Only once have they allowed less than 800 runs in a season, scoring 783 runs in 1995, which also happens to be the only year they have made the postseason.

Using the Expected Wins formula (created by Bill James, DK :-) )we can estimate how many runs the rockies would need to reach 90 wins or 95 wins or 100 wins.

90 wins-1025 runs
95 wins-1097 runs
100 wins-1178 runs

The all time single season scoring record is 1067. So the Rockies need to have an all-time great offense just to get to 90 wins. If their pitching has a REALLY good year and say they only allow 800 runs then they would need

90 wins-904 runs
95 wins-968 runs
100 wins-1039 runs

So the Rockies are just a bad situation. Their own ball park hurts them.
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Postby LCBOY » Thu Dec 04, 2003 5:52 pm

Madison wrote:
LCBOY wrote:DK,

Can you imagine what Honus Wagner would hit in Coors Field?!! Let me go check some of my Bill James books. I'll bet good ole Bill knows!!!! :-D


If there wasn't a pesky little detail about slugging %, then you would be ok. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that little detail is going to be used against you in the debate. I'd like to have seen how you responded to it.


We can discuss it after the debate is over if you wish.
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Postby Madison » Thu Dec 04, 2003 6:00 pm

LCBOY wrote:We can discuss it after the debate is over if you wish.


I figured we would. I'm not the only one who is aware of it. ;-)
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Postby Arlo » Thu Dec 04, 2003 6:13 pm

Madison wrote:
LCBOY wrote:We can discuss it after the debate is over if you wish.


I figured we would. I'm not the only one who is aware of it. ;-)

:-)

And here we thought the debate would settle the issue... ;-)
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Postby Madison » Thu Dec 04, 2003 6:14 pm

Arlo wrote:
Madison wrote:
LCBOY wrote:We can discuss it after the debate is over if you wish.


I figured we would. I'm not the only one who is aware of it. ;-)

:-)

And here we thought the debate would settle the issue... ;-)


Now that wouldn't be any fun. :-D
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Postby DK » Thu Dec 04, 2003 8:41 pm

Madison wrote:
LCBOY wrote:DK,

Can you imagine what Honus Wagner would hit in Coors Field?!! Let me go check some of my Bill James books. I'll bet good ole Bill knows!!!! :-D


If there wasn't a pesky little detail about slugging %, then you would be ok. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that little detail is going to be used against you in the debate. I'd like to have seen how you responded to it.



Wait...didn't I use that already?
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Postby DieHardCubbie » Thu Dec 04, 2003 10:05 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
ramble2 wrote:I still don't know what a hangover effect is.


Must be a non drinker? :-D


Just for the record....I like the Coors (Light) effect..... :*)
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Postby Madison » Fri Dec 05, 2003 12:22 am

DK wrote:
Madison wrote:
LCBOY wrote:DK,

Can you imagine what Honus Wagner would hit in Coors Field?!! Let me go check some of my Bill James books. I'll bet good ole Bill knows!!!! :-D


If there wasn't a pesky little detail about slugging %, then you would be ok. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like that little detail is going to be used against you in the debate. I'd like to have seen how you responded to it.



Wait...didn't I use that already?


Nope. There is a very interesting fact about Wagner that leads to his slugging percentage being skewed and you haven't come close to using it yet.
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Postby Madison » Fri Dec 05, 2003 12:22 am

DieHardCubbie wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
ramble2 wrote:I still don't know what a hangover effect is.


Must be a non drinker? :-D


Just for the record....I like the Coors (Light) effect..... :*)


Silver bullets for me as well. :-)
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:05 am

DieHardCubbie wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:
ramble2 wrote:I still don't know what a hangover effect is.


Must be a non drinker? :-D


Just for the record....I like the Coors (Light) effect..... :*)


DHC nice ;-)
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