As fans we need to readjust of thinking about Rockies pitchers. A 5.00 ERA in Colorado is good. But we've been "taught" as baseball fans that a 5.00 ERA is bad, which it is any for any normal ballpark.
Also, the Rockies' problems is their offense. There offense has never been good enough. This may sound strange but let me explain. No matter how good the rockies pitchers are, they will always have a 5.00+ team ERA, even if they had five Randy Johnsons. In there 11 year history the Rockies have averaged 861 runs scored and 907 runs allowed per season. Only once have they allowed less than 800 runs in a season, scoring 783 runs in 1995, which also happens to be the only year they have made the postseason.
Using the Expected Wins formula (created by Bill James, DK
)we can estimate how many runs the rockies would need to reach 90 wins or 95 wins or 100 wins.
90 wins-1025 runs
95 wins-1097 runs
100 wins-1178 runs
The all time single season scoring record is 1067. So the Rockies need to have an all-time great offense just to get to 90 wins. If their pitching has a REALLY good year and say they only allow 800 runs then they would need
90 wins-904 runs
95 wins-968 runs
100 wins-1039 runs
So the Rockies are just a bad situation. Their own ball park hurts them.