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Took a PECOTA approach, don't think it worked

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Took a PECOTA approach, don't think it worked

Postby BoilerATC » Tue Mar 13, 2007 1:41 am

I did my first draft of the season today with the PFR over at BP helping me. Maybe I didn't have the setting adjusted right, but it really wanted to go against intuition. I'm going to have to blend it better for my next draft. This was a 5x5 mixed league draft where I had the last pick of the odd rounds. Here's my draft, please comment and leave a link.

1. (12) Miguel Cabrera 3B
2. (13) Hanley Ramirez SS
3. (36) Jake Peavy SP
4. (37) Joe Nathan RP
5. (60) Ben Sheets SP
6. (61) Adam Dunn OF
7. (84) Rickie Weeks 2B
8. (85) Daisuke Matsuzaka SP
9. (108) Prince Fielder 1B
10. (109) Francisco Cordero RP
11. (132) Adrian Beltre 3B
12. (133) Jose Valverde RP
13. (156) Willy Taveras OF
14. (157) Corey Hart OF
15. (180) Eric Byrnes OF
16. (181) Kelvim Escobar SP
17. (204) Alex Gordon 3B
18. (205) Pat Neshek RP
19. (228) Paul Lo Duca C
20. (229) Anthony Reyes SP
21. (252) Justin Duchscherer RP
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Postby LongDrive » Tue Mar 13, 2007 1:46 am

I would think about trading some pitching for some pop.
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Postby Hacktastic » Tue Mar 13, 2007 8:22 am

In my opinion PECOTA can work really well but you have to make sure the values are adjusted well. The default 180 batters to 80 pitchers can still favor pitchers, especially in middle rounds. That's because there are no 1st and 2nd round worthy pitchers besides Santana and maybe a few others. Also, the reason I think why it felt like it went against intuition is because it values some types of players way more than we're used to, and that's sometimes a good thing because we're reminded to find players that can contribute to multiple stats, not always just one.

Here's my team that I drafted using PECOTA.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... p?t=257404

Both of us have a few big bats, a great pitching staff, and a bunch of fillers for the rest of the O spots. Not very impressive batters overall.

My solution is to continue using PECOTA in your next draft, but bring along a list of Average Draft Positions so you know who you can wait on and who you should take right away. That should help solve your problem.
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Postby BoilerATC » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:01 pm

Has anyone had a good draft with a PECOTA strategy?
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