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Value of Top Closers (Auction Strategy ?)

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Postby slomo007 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 11:44 am

But don't you think Lee would have gone for less than the price you paid for K-Rod, if Lee were not a keeper? I think he would have been below $30 for sure, and probably in the $25 range or so. So really you would have been better off just buying Lee outright...though I realize you weren't able to do that because he was kept. I'm trying to relate this to a non-keeper league though.
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Postby Tavish » Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:03 pm

slomo007 wrote:But don't you think Lee would have gone for less than the price you paid for K-Rod, if Lee were not a keeper? I think he would have been below $30 for sure, and probably in the $25 range or so. So really you would have been better off just buying Lee outright...though I realize you weren't able to do that because he was kept. I'm trying to relate this to a non-keeper league though.


Its really hard to relate this situation to a non-keeper league but had Derek Lee came up this year to buy I would have been willing to spend somewhere in the upper $20s to low $30s for him (roughly the same price as I would have bid for K-Rod). He went at $28 and $24 in the two cafe mock auctions and I would be willing to guess that he is going to be somewhere around there in other non-keeper leagues or first year.
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Postby Ender » Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:47 pm

KRod had more effect on ERA and WHIP than all but 6 SP's in all of baseball last year in a 1300 IP league. Generally speaking top end closers are underrated because people don't realize just how much they help ERA/WHIP. Granted they only have that type of value in a league with innings limits.
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Postby ActionHero » Tue Mar 13, 2007 5:57 pm

slomo007 wrote:How much are the cheaper options going for?

Guys like Kerry Wood, Joel Pineiro, Ryan Dempster, etc?

I think I would shoot for one mid-level guy, no matter what the cost...then sit back and let everyone else overspend on the rest. Then hope to either (a) get lucky on the WW or (b) make a trade.

By mid-level guy, I mean Street, Hoffman, Lidge, or either of the Corderos.


Here are a few other closer prices from last year:
Hoffman $18
Lidge $28
F Cordero $19
Borowski $14
BJ Ryan $20
Todd Jones $15
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Postby ActionHero » Tue Mar 13, 2007 5:58 pm

Ender wrote:KRod had more effect on ERA and WHIP than all but 6 SP's in all of baseball last year in a 1300 IP league. Generally speaking top end closers are underrated because people don't realize just how much they help ERA/WHIP. Granted they only have that type of value in a league with innings limits.


Very interesting. Our league also has an innings limit, so perhaps it's worthwhile to try to grab a top closer. How would I go about calculating how much they're worth in an innings limit league?
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Postby ActionHero » Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:05 pm

Amazinz wrote:I'm not that familiar with Sportsline's dollar values. One possible factor are the category splits, not the batter/pitcher split. Sportsline could be devaluing Saves which would explain the discrepancy in closer values. I am not sure why there would be a wide discrepancy in MR. It's possible that Sportsline is evaluating SP/MR as two separate player pools and ESPN evaluates them as one? I don't know, just a guess.

At any rate, I would lean toward the ESPN numbers. I create my own dollar values and the value of top tier closers in my work is closer to ESPN than it is to Sportsline.


One thing interesting is that when I added up the $ amounts for all the players listed in Sportsline, it came up to $3150 -- $30 more than it should have. This gives me a lot less confidence in Sportline's numbers. Generally, they are lower than ESPN in all positions except OF and RP. Perhaps they just made different lineup assumptions?

Also, I noticed I made a mistake in my original post. The Sportsline $'s should have been listed first (fixed)
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Mar 13, 2007 6:51 pm

Dollar values will never equal the league cap. They're not really supposed to. When you determine the value of a unit of production than you can assign a value to any player. In this scenario the values should not be expected to sum to zero.

Also, I guess I am closer to Sportsline then. Top closer are definitely worth closer to $30 than $20 IMHO. ;-)
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Postby ActionHero » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:02 pm

Amazinz wrote:Dollar values will never equal the league cap. They're not really supposed to. When you determine the value of a unit of production than you can assign a value to any player. In this scenario the values should not be expected to sum to zero.

Also, I guess I am closer to Sportsline then. Top closer are definitely worth closer to $30 than $20 IMHO. ;-)


Really? ESPN actually has 2 numbers -- one a projected value number (which is fractional) and the other is an auction value. I definitely agree that the projected value number would not "sum to zero". However, I would have thought that the auction values should sum to $3120 (for a 12 team, $260 cap league). My rationale is that some players (even if they could have some value) are simply not worth bidding on given the size of the league. For example, even if Jason Marquis is projected to create $3.15 in value, he's simply not worth a $1 bid because there are other pitchers who would create more value that could also be taken with a $1 bid.
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Postby Amazinz » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:25 pm

I guess that dollar values could be taken another step and refined until they are something like you describe. Maybe ESPN/Sportsline does that. I'm not really sure. But generally you're going to determine a dollar value for each unit in each category and then use that to determine the players value. This gives you an idea of how valuable a guy is in the context of the league, a lot of times it's a negative value (which is what I was referring to when I said sum to zero). You're not actually assigning available dollars to the players. The dollars do get assigned evenly within the categories. That's the point where you want to verify that everything sums to zero but with published dollar values you can't do it since you don't normally have access to the intermediate steps.
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Postby Ender » Tue Mar 13, 2007 7:38 pm

ActionHero wrote:
Ender wrote:KRod had more effect on ERA and WHIP than all but 6 SP's in all of baseball last year in a 1300 IP league. Generally speaking top end closers are underrated because people don't realize just how much they help ERA/WHIP. Granted they only have that type of value in a league with innings limits.


Very interesting. Our league also has an innings limit, so perhaps it's worthwhile to try to grab a top closer. How would I go about calculating how much they're worth in an innings limit league?


A) you'd have to have the info from a league run last year. The league I used had a 1300 IP limit and the average pitching was a 4.03 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Then deduct the closers IP worth of average production and add in the closers actually numbers to see how much it changes ERA/WHIP.

B) Deduct 200 IP's of average pitching and do the math to find out what ERA/WHIP those 200 IP's need to be replaced with to give you the same results as Part A.

Using my league data he came out being equal to a 200 IP starter with a 3.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.

The more IP's your league allows the less a closer can modify the results. In a typical H2H league where you stack 2 start guys etc their value goes way down, in a roto league especially one with a small IP limit it goes up.
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