shady81 wrote:I disagree with the wins but thats just a matter of opinion. I still say 12-14, the O's were able to pull 9 wins out for Cabrera and he had 104 walks in only 148 innings. Seeing that both of these guys will be pitching for a full year (170-200 innings) I thinkboth of them should be able to atleast win 12 games because our offense is better then it was last year (maybe not by much, but it is)
Of course it's opinion.
I agree that
if the offense improves and
if he stays healthy and pitches a full season and
if our bullpen is better than last year and
if his ERA is around 4.00
then Loewen could win around 14, close to what Bedard had last year.
But, when you have to string together 4 ifs to get to your top end prediction, I think backing off on that is realistic. Yes, Loewen could do that. But, what is he likely to do?
Looking at his comparables and recent history for young pitchers, an improvement in his ERA of 1.33, would be a huge improvement. Most of the projection systems put him at 4.6 to 4.8. I think he'll better that, but would be surprised to make him make such a huge leap in ERA.