Chien-Ming Wang - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Chien-Ming Wang

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:32 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:There are just too many variables to accurately project wins. Take into account how the SP does, the offense, bullpen and then the same for the opposition.


But the Yanks dominate so many of them. The best offense, the best closer (well one of the best. who would your $ be on to close a big game?); improved D and pen.

Just to clear things up, I do not usually value wins unless we're talking Zito and still I usually max out win projections at 15 or so.

What I'd like to hear is what round people think Wang is a good risk for a 5th starter on a standard Roto team.
Chrisy Moltisanti
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1536
Joined: 10 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: 6 feet under

Postby Amazinz » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:41 pm

Interesting note, since '62 there have been ~35 seasons where a pitcher earned 15+ Wins and had less thank 80 K. Only five times is the same pitcher on the list twice, none at three or more, so I'd think history is working against him as well.
Image
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 18800
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: in Canada, toughening up figure skaters

Postby Havok1517 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:44 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:There are just too many variables to accurately project wins. Take into account how the SP does, the offense, bullpen and then the same for the opposition.

I was looking at the staff Havoc put together earlier and it hit me...
Wang = Westbrook
Both are low K pitchers who don't give up many HR and have very good GB/FB ratios.


Yep, I think Wang has the chance to win more games and might have a lower ERA but Westbrook is cheaper, will K more players, contract year, and will win 15+.

You can put guys like Wang, Garland, and Westbrook at the same level. Brandon Webb is a better pitcher than those 3 on all fronts but he's the epitome of what a sinkerballer can be. But to say they have no value is clearly wrong. Wang, Garland, & Westbrook combined could win 50 games combined.
Havok1517
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 8474
(Past Year: 103)
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:49 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:What I'd like to hear is what round people think Wang is a good risk for a 5th starter on a standard Roto team.
I like him in H2H but a roto league with an IP limit he is a bad bet.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... light=wang
Image
Pogotheostrich
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 21514
(Past Year: 455)
Joined: 9 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Louis

Postby Havok1517 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:58 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:What I'd like to hear is what round people think Wang is a good risk for a 5th starter on a standard Roto team.
I like him in H2H but a roto league with an IP limit he is a bad bet.
http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... light=wang


Wang has been going in the 11th round in 12 team leagues.
Havok1517
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 8474
(Past Year: 103)
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:01 pm

Havok1517 wrote:Wang has been going in the 11th round in 12 team leagues.
What do you think? Can a roto team with an IP limit compete in K's with Wang on the team?
Image
Pogotheostrich
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 21514
(Past Year: 455)
Joined: 9 Dec 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: St. Louis

Postby Amazinz » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:07 pm

It depends on your bench. If Wang is a guy you can rotate in than yes I don't think it would be a problem. If you're locked into Wang as your #5 than you're probably screwed. I drafted him in the 14th Rd of the Football Cafe vs Baseball Cafe draft (12-team, 5x5 roto) and I regret that pick.
Image
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Amazinz
Mod in Retirement
Mod in Retirement

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 18800
Joined: 16 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: in Canada, toughening up figure skaters

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:14 pm

Only for roto with and innings limit, H2H it doesn't matter. Last year Wang had 78 K's in 218 innings. Let's say he comes pretty close to that again this year and K's 80 in 210 innings. Most roto leagues I have seen have a max IP around 1250. Looking at the fantasy research study here, 1130 K's are the average and more importantly 970 is the 50% mark. If you have Wang on your team you are going to need 890 K's in 1010 IP just to reach 50% and you have basically no chance of finishing near the top in K's.

Thoughts?


Hmm

Sheets 185 182
Weaver 190 165
Myers 195 171
Bush 185 132

Shields 85 82
F. Cordero 60 67
Street 70 67

970IP 866K = 8 K/9 (I swear I didn't fudge the numbers, that comes out to exactly what Pogo says I need to compete - 1010IP + 890K = K/9 of 8. Maybe that's why I was happy with Wang)

Wang 190 85 - his K rate last year was unusually low. His eq K rate lows were 3.5 and 4.8 in the past. I figure a k/9 of 4.

1160IP 951K = 7.4 K/9

I think I did OK. I'll be drafting (IF you are in the collaborative league, look away!) Neshek/Eyre/Kuo/Linebrink/Calero/Duch/Wheeler/Soriano and Anthony Reyes/Vazquez so I think I'll be fine in K.

Next pick ~ 190IP 155K

1350IP 1106K = 7.37 K/9

Selective starts

1250IP 1040K = 7.5 K/9

I feel pretty good about it. But I probably should have drafted Vazquez before Wang.

Throw in fewer SP starts and an additional roster spot for a solid MR and I'm happy.
Chrisy Moltisanti
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1536
Joined: 10 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: 6 feet under

Postby Havok1517 » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:26 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
Only for roto with and innings limit, H2H it doesn't matter. Last year Wang had 78 K's in 218 innings. Let's say he comes pretty close to that again this year and K's 80 in 210 innings. Most roto leagues I have seen have a max IP around 1250. Looking at the fantasy research study here, 1130 K's are the average and more importantly 970 is the 50% mark. If you have Wang on your team you are going to need 890 K's in 1010 IP just to reach 50% and you have basically no chance of finishing near the top in K's.

Thoughts?


Hmm

Sheets 185 182
Weaver 190 165
Myers 195 171
Bush 185 132

Shields 85 82
F. Cordero 60 67
Street 70 67

970IP 866K = 8 K/9

Wang 190 85 - his K rate last year was unusually low. His eq K rate lows were 3.5 and 4.8 in the past. I figure a k/9 of 4.

1160IP 951K = 7.4 K/9

I think I did OK. I'll be drafting (IF you are in the collaborative league, look away!) Neshek/Eyre/Kuo/Linebrink/Calero/Duch/Wheeler/Soriano and Anthony Reyes/Vazquez so I think I'll be fine in K.


Yeah, as long as you make up for Wang's warts, which I think you will, you should do fine. People are obsessed with finding players that have it all. Those players are nice but they go quickly in drafts. That leaves you with average overall guys or guys with extremes in different stats. Most people will pick the average player but picking a player that compliments another player is as sound a strategy. I already used this example but combine Wang and Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera's best stat will be his Ks which is pretty much the only stat Wang lacks. Combine the 2 and you could be looking at 300+ Ks, a 4ERA, 1.30WHIP, with over 30 wins in those 2 players alone. Now combine 2 average pitchers and you'll get around the same stats in all but wins which could clearly favor the Wang/Cabrera combo. A guy like Westbrook (who i feel has more value than Wang just because Wang is going 19 rounds earlier in 12 teamers and only cots a $1 in auction leagues) could be a steal using the same strategy.
Havok1517
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Writer
Posts: 8474
(Past Year: 103)
Joined: 8 Mar 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:31 pm

You'd better have some heavy hitting if you do that. I thought taking a risk on Bush and Wang was enough as is. I have little faith in Cabrera and have shown the reasons I think Wang is a good bet to succeed, so I'd want to pair him with someone better. Actually I don't think of it in pairings, but a pitching unit. I built up what I though was a solid team overall, with some emphasis on Ks, before considering Wang. Betting on more than one guy to defy the odds, as in taking Wang and Cabrera (unless he's the last pick in a deeper league), is too much for me.
Chrisy Moltisanti
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1536
Joined: 10 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Basketball
Location: 6 feet under

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: HotRephoantee, legXpromt and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Sunday, Apr. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Toronto at Cleveland
(1:05 pm)
LA Angels at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Seattle at Miami
(1:10 pm)
indoors
Atlanta at NY Mets
(1:10 pm)
Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
(1:35 pm)
St. Louis at Washington
(1:35 pm)
NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
(1:40 pm)
indoors
Minnesota at Kansas City
(2:10 pm)
Cincinnati at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
Chi White Sox at Texas
(3:05 pm)
Houston at Oakland
(4:05 pm)
Philadelphia at Colorado
(4:10 pm)
Arizona at LA Dodgers
(4:10 pm)
San Francisco at San Diego
(4:10 pm)
Baltimore at Boston
(7:05 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact