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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:39 pm

Yoda wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:So there are more SPs who get over 150K and they do it more consistently. If you have those players you know what you're going to get and there are going to be enough to go around (relatively speaking), why wouldn't it be a good idea to bet on the best late round bet for wins?


Because K is a direct attribute of a pitcher's skills. W is a function of a team. It's nearly impossible to predict Ws (save a few pitchers on a few teams) but it is not very difficult to predict Ks.


But we're speaking about an outlier, one who throws 95 when he wants to. One who chooses not to K people. He has the ability. He also is on stacked offensive teams ever, has a bulked up pen including the best closer ever. If wins were ever projectable for such a low pick they are here with Wang. There are so many variables in his favor here - he can K, can control BABIP, has endurance and control and the best team in the league (for wins) behind him...and he's 27.
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Postby Pokey » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:44 pm

I would caution against relying on Wang for 17+ wins. I think we need to remember that this guy hasn't really bucked any trends yet. Anyone can be a statistical anomaly for a season or two. Until he proves that he can keep being successful with such a low k-rate for a sustained period of time, I think the only responsible thing to do is assume that he's going to regress.

Just for fun, here's the same staff Havoc suggested with my projections.

Kazmir: 12 W, 207 K, 3.45 ERA, 1.29 WHIP (190.33 IP)
Patterson: 10 W, 144 K, 3.35 ERA, 1.12 WHIP (149.33 IP)
Willis: 13 W, 163 K, 3.98 ERA, 1.33 WHIP (225 IP)
Wang: 14 W, 75 K, 4.30 ERA, 1.37 WHIP (204.67 IP)
Westbrook: 14 W, 114 K, 3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP (212.67 IP)

So, 63 W, 703 K, 3.80 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 982 IP.
Not a staff I'd want.
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Postby Pokey » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:47 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:So there are more SPs who get over 150K and they do it more consistently. If you have those players you know what you're going to get and there are going to be enough to go around (relatively speaking), why wouldn't it be a good idea to bet on the best late round bet for wins?


Because K is a direct attribute of a pitcher's skills. W is a function of a team. It's nearly impossible to predict Ws (save a few pitchers on a few teams) but it is not very difficult to predict Ks.


But we're speaking about an outlier, one who throws 95 when he wants to. One who chooses not to K people. He has the ability. He also is on stacked offensive teams ever, has a bulked up pen including the best closer ever. If wins were ever projectable for such a low pick they are here with Wang. There are so many variables in his favor here - he can K, can control BABIP, has endurance and control and the best team in the league (for wins) behind him...and he's 27.


You can't just say he can K guys because he has a 95 MPH fastball, he throws it often, and he doesn't K guys. I do believe that pitchers have a measure of control over their BABIP, but Wang's only been in the bigs for a year and a half. He has yet to prove that his control of BABIP is for real.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:55 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:But we're speaking about an outlier, one who throws 95 when he wants to. One who chooses not to K people. He has the ability. He also is on stacked offensive teams ever, has a bulked up pen including the best closer ever. If wins were ever projectable for such a low pick they are here with Wang. There are so many variables in his favor here - he can K, can control BABIP, has endurance and control and the best team in the league (for wins) behind him...and he's 27.


Sorry but day to day offenses and defenses vary so greatly that wins are next to impossible to predict. Pitching well and going deep into games will only get you so far. After that wins are largely a matter of luck.

Mussina - 197.1 IP, 23 QS, 3.51 ERA, 15 W
Wang - 218 IP, 18 QS, 3.63 ER, 19 W
RJ - 205 IP, 14 QS, 5.00 ER, 17 W
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:04 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:But we're speaking about an outlier, one who throws 95 when he wants to. One who chooses not to K people. He has the ability. He also is on stacked offensive teams ever, has a bulked up pen including the best closer ever. If wins were ever projectable for such a low pick they are here with Wang. There are so many variables in his favor here - he can K, can control BABIP, has endurance and control and the best team in the league (for wins) behind him...and he's 27.


Sorry but day to day offenses and defenses vary so greatly that wins are next to impossible to predict. Pitching well and going deep into games will only get you so far. After that wins are largely a matter of luck.

Mussina - 197.1 IP, 23 QS, 3.51 ERA, 15 W
Wang - 218 IP, 18 QS, 3.63 ER, 19 W
RJ - 205 IP, 14 QS, 5.00 ER, 17 W


Moose and RJ faced better pichers. Wang is projected at the #3, he'll be going against meat most of the time.

I think 17 wins is a realistic projection.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:08 pm

Pokey wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:So there are more SPs who get over 150K and they do it more consistently. If you have those players you know what you're going to get and there are going to be enough to go around (relatively speaking), why wouldn't it be a good idea to bet on the best late round bet for wins?


Because K is a direct attribute of a pitcher's skills. W is a function of a team. It's nearly impossible to predict Ws (save a few pitchers on a few teams) but it is not very difficult to predict Ks.


But we're speaking about an outlier, one who throws 95 when he wants to. One who chooses not to K people. He has the ability. He also is on stacked offensive teams ever, has a bulked up pen including the best closer ever. If wins were ever projectable for such a low pick they are here with Wang. There are so many variables in his favor here - he can K, can control BABIP, has endurance and control and the best team in the league (for wins) behind him...and he's 27.


You can't just say he can K guys because he has a 95 MPH fastball, he throws it often, and he doesn't K guys. I do believe that pitchers have a measure of control over their BABIP, but Wang's only been in the bigs for a year and a half. He has yet to prove that his control of BABIP is for real.


The evidence shows it's Webb, Lowe and Wang when it comes to controlling how the ball is hit, on the ground. His BABIP was .290 last year and .270 the year before.

It's been stated by more than one source, including Wang, that he chooses not (try) to K people unless needed. Otherwise he's content getting DPs and groundouts. I don't mean to imply he's the terminator or something, but essentially you get the idea.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:14 pm

Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
Chrisy Moltisanti wrote:But we're speaking about an outlier, one who throws 95 when he wants to. One who chooses not to K people. He has the ability. He also is on stacked offensive teams ever, has a bulked up pen including the best closer ever. If wins were ever projectable for such a low pick they are here with Wang. There are so many variables in his favor here - he can K, can control BABIP, has endurance and control and the best team in the league (for wins) behind him...and he's 27.


Sorry but day to day offenses and defenses vary so greatly that wins are next to impossible to predict. Pitching well and going deep into games will only get you so far. After that wins are largely a matter of luck.

Mussina - 197.1 IP, 23 QS, 3.51 ERA, 15 W
Wang - 218 IP, 18 QS, 3.63 ER, 19 W
RJ - 205 IP, 14 QS, 5.00 ER, 17 W


Moose and RJ faced better pichers. Wang is projected at the #3, he'll be going against meat most of the time.

I think 17 wins is a realistic projection.


Maybe Moose and RJ faced better pitchers but that isn't what their 2006 Run Support shows.
Mussina - 6.52
Wang - 6.32
RJ - 7.51

17 wins is a very realistic projection the problem is with projecting wins there is a such a large deviation.
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:16 pm

17 wins is a very realistic projection the problem is with projecting wins there is a such a large deviation.


Due to all the variables with decent potential to be in his favor I believe this deviation is minimized. He could go for 20+ wins you know. :-b
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Postby Chrisy Moltisanti » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:24 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:Maybe Moose and RJ faced better pitchers but that isn't what their 2006 Run Support shows.
Mussina - 6.52
Wang - 6.32
RJ - 7.51


There was a large variance in the quality of Unit's starts. I don't think his number has much worth here.

Last year Wang had 15.1 expected wins (11th overall, 5th in the AL) based on the BP metric.

Moose 12.4

Unit 10.9

I don't know everything about this stat, but I like it right now :-D

Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation).
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Mar 13, 2007 3:27 pm

There are just too many variables to accurately project wins. Take into account how the SP does, the offense, bullpen and then the same for the opposition.

I was looking at the staff Havoc put together earlier and it hit me...
Wang = Westbrook
Both are low K pitchers who don't give up many HR and have very good GB/FB ratios.
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