NYY answer back - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

NYY answer back

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Postby Guest » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:39 pm

Ramble-

Very impressive. But I wasn't saying taking Bayesian theory to show that I'm write about post-season statistics. I was just making the point that there is more than one way to interpret data in general. Anyway, we went from talking about Sheffield with Hootie originally to Bayesian theory. It's been a wacky ride. I look forward to debating DIFFERENT issues in the future.
Guest


Home Cafe: Football
Friendliness: %

Postby ramble2 » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:45 pm

wrveres wrote:Wow guys, I am speachless ... actually speachless.

because I have no idea what you are talking about ...
But It looks good on paper ;-D
I'll give you an .... (A-)only cus you misspelled ... ... Sciosca...LOL :-)


Oh no! I hope the Karma isn't going to get me too! :-D
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
ramble2
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 2952
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 27 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Salt Lake City

Postby wrveres » Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:48 pm

ramble2 wrote:
wrveres wrote:Wow guys, I am speachless ... actually speachless.

because I have no idea what you are talking about ...
But It looks good on paper ;-D
I'll give you an .... (A-)only cus you misspelled ... ... Sciosca...LOL :-)


Oh no! I hope the Karma isn't going to get me too! :-D


lmao

Image
25                "Love the Padres"
Rafael

Dodgers FAIL|Mets FAIL|Canada FAIL
wrveres
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe Musketeer
Posts: 31773
(Past Year: 761)
Joined: 2 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby HOOTIE » Wed Dec 03, 2003 12:43 am

GANG GREEN Been a pleasure as well :-D
You certaintly have nice credentials, good luck in school.
RAMBLE nice explanation, good luck as well.B-)
A future lawyer and PhD wow. Had i known this at the beginning, i would have hired a advisor. :-o

I hate the word choke as much as clutch. :~(
Never thought about it really, nor have i ever heard anything on it. Since i'm in the believe that players will in the end resemble their norm, i think if you believe one exists, then they both would have too? Am i thinking right here? If one exists, wouldn't the other one have too then? If clutch exists, guys playing over their norms, then wouldn't you have to have guys below (choke) to even it out? If 100 is median, but we say clutch exists, then choke would have to right, or the line would jump above median? Maybe you or RAMBLE have a guess?
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicResponse TeamFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 15115
(Past Year: 297)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.

Postby Arlo » Wed Dec 03, 2003 8:46 am

Since the statistics side of this issue seems to be pretty much covered... ;-)

A quick comment about using Jordan as a comparison: I'd be a bit wary to draw conclusions based on other sports (particularly those where opprtunities are based on situational play-calling rather than a set lineup). In some sports, hockey probably being the best example, the game itself tends to change in the playoffs, and so do the stats.

OK, one comment on statistics after all: yes, they do hold up in a court of law. DNA evidence, for example, often leads to statistical results, not absolute proof...
Arlo
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 8847
Joined: 4 Jan 2002
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: The Cheap Seats

Postby Erboes » Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:35 am

Yes, they do tend to change in the playoffs. Defenses get tighter and offense usually goes down, especially in basketball and hockey, which makes Jordan's feats even more remarkable.

The difference is, though, in these other team sports adrenaline is an advantage. If you don't have your adrenaline under control in baseball your taking these huge swings at anything even close to the strike zone. It's like shooting pool -- you'll have ripped felts and balls flying off the table if you played with high adrenaline. Games of skill rely on an even temperment and not high emotions.

Probably the best sport to compare baseball to is golf. I know Michelson is known to struggle in the clutch, but that is as far as my knowledge goes of the sport. Isn't Woods known to usually end up on top if he's close on the final day? And aren't his opponents usually so intimidated that they make mistakes that they normally do not make when they are facing him? Again, I don't follow golf. These are just snippets of info I garnered from watching Sportscenter. It does seem to me this at leasts suggests that there are differing performance levels with players when faced with the same pressure, no?
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby ramble2 » Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:13 pm

HOOTIE wrote:GANG GREEN Been a pleasure as well :-D
You certaintly have nice credentials, good luck in school.
RAMBLE nice explanation, good luck as well.B-)
A future lawyer and PhD wow. Had i known this at the beginning, i would have hired a advisor. :-o

I hate the word choke as much as clutch. :~(
Never thought about it really, nor have i ever heard anything on it. Since i'm in the believe that players will in the end resemble their norm, i think if you believe one exists, then they both would have too? Am i thinking right here? If one exists, wouldn't the other one have too then? If clutch exists, guys playing over their norms, then wouldn't you have to have guys below (choke) to even it out? If 100 is median, but we say clutch exists, then choke would have to right, or the line would jump above median? Maybe you or RAMBLE have a guess?


I'm not a big fan of 'choke' either, but I haven't read anything on it. Everything I've seen is on the fallacy of clutch. But when I look at how Bonds' post-season stats changed after last season, I suspect that the long-term trend holds either way.

If we say that clutch is simply players performing above their norm in a small sample, then we could say that choke is simply players performing below their norms in a short sample. I don't think that's how those terms actually get applied by announcers and others, though. If it were, then every post-season we'd call almost half the players clutch, and almost half chokers, and the labels would be pretty meaningless.

I know the data strongly supports the claim that clutch is a myth. I don't know what the data has to say about choking.

My feeling is that with regard to clutch, players don't suddenly become better players. They always are performing at a high level, and that's why we see a regression to the norm in a large enough sample size.

Choking, though, might be different. I'm not talking about a player who simply performs below the norm in a series - I think over the long term they will bring that average up. I'm talking about the players who have total mental or emotional breakdowns. But if we understand choke this way, then I think it's a mistake to tie it too closely together with clutch. So choke could exist without clutch (or clutch would be the 99% of players who don't have mental or emotional breakdowns). But how many players would qualify for the choke label? Not too many have had those kinds of breakdowns in pressure situations.

This has been a great thread, and very informative. But I'm ready to discuss something else! :-D
"The game has a cleanness. If you do a good job, the numbers say so. You don't have to ask anyone or play politics. You don't have to wait for the reviews." - Sandy Koufax
ramble2
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe Ranker
Posts: 2952
(Past Year: 7)
Joined: 27 Feb 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Salt Lake City

Postby Lofunzo » Wed Dec 03, 2003 2:14 pm

Erboes wrote:Probably the best sport to compare baseball to is golf. I know Michelson is known to struggle in the clutch, but that is as far as my knowledge goes of the sport. Isn't Woods known to usually end up on top if he's close on the final day? And aren't his opponents usually so intimidated that they make mistakes that they normally do not make when they are facing him? Again, I don't follow golf. These are just snippets of info I garnered from watching Sportscenter. It does seem to me this at leasts suggests that there are differing performance levels with players when faced with the same pressure, no?


A golf reference? Now, I gotta get involved. Let me preface this by saying that the media coverage of all spots, golf included, has increased immensely. Yes, some guys are better built to succeed, physically and mentally. IMHO, it's all about putting yourself in a position to succeed. Tiger does that. He has also been drilled by his father on mental toughness since he was a young child. Mickelson does seem to falter down the stretch and looks bad doing it. Then, his talent shows at times and he makes you doubt that. When people think of recent chokers in golf, they think of Norman and Mickelson. Do you know who the golfer is with the most 2nd place finishes? The greatest golfer of all-time.......Mr. Jack Nicklaus. Yes, he won a ton, but he also lost out on a bunch. Ask Tiger. It's all about putting yourself in a position to win on Sunday and take your chances. I have no doubt that Mickelson will win a major, maybe more, in his career. He just needs a break. Then, they might steamroll. The problem with him is that his bad is really bad. On top of his game, he can go toe-to-toe with Tiger. He is just lacking a little something.

I would also like to slightly dispell Tiger's Sunday prowess. I can't find the numbers right now but he is a great finisher. What I mean is that if he is up going into Sunday, he seals the deal. His record if he is not leading isn't that good. Those numbers can be skewed because he could be down by a lot but even if he's close, he doesn't have a great record. That said, there is some validity to his presence and the effect on other players. If I was up a few on the back nine and saw his name on the board, the hands would get a little clammy.
Lofunzo
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerEagle EyeHockey ModPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 23698
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 9 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Central Jersey

Postby Erboes » Wed Dec 03, 2003 3:16 pm

I know nothing about golf. I play once every few years then usually get blacklisted from every course in the Cleveland area.

With that said, I think golf is similar enough to draw some comparisons since hitting a baseball and golfball both require skill and not necessarily athleticism. If there's "choking" and "clutch play" in golf on a consistent basis, I see no reason why there can't be in baseball. If there isn't, though, let's forget about this barren subject and move on.
Erboes
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1433
Joined: 26 Mar 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Lofunzo » Wed Dec 03, 2003 3:37 pm

Erboes wrote:I know nothing about golf. I play once every few years then usually get blacklisted from every course in the Cleveland area.

With that said, I think golf is similar enough to draw some comparisons since hitting a baseball and golfball both require skill and not necessarily athleticism. If there's "choking" and "clutch play" in golf on a consistent basis, I see no reason why there can't be in baseball. If there isn't, though, let's forget about this barren subject and move on.


I wasn't disagreeing with you. I was expanding on what you wrote. ;-D
Lofunzo
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe RankerEagle EyeHockey ModPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 23698
(Past Year: 11)
Joined: 9 Jul 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Central Jersey

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ray Zorback, scarnicease and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Aug. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Texas at Miami
(12:40 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Philadelphia
(1:05 pm)
Toronto at Milwaukee
(2:10 pm)
NY Mets at Oakland
(3:35 pm)
Houston at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
Arizona at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Detroit at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
LA Angels at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Cincinnati at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Francisco at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Baltimore at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Cleveland at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Kansas City at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
San Diego at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact