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Sleeper: Matt Murton?

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Sleeper: Matt Murton?

Postby stumpak » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:11 am

Here is my theory: One trend that is often overlooked is the linkage between manager and SB output.

Based on this, I like Murton a lot this year as a really cheap but very servicable 3rd or 4th OF (depending on how deep the league is). No one likes to run quite like Lou Pinella, and if you look at Murton's minor league stats, he was a decent basestealer. I do not think that it is at all unreasonble to pick up Murton and expect .300 20/15 out of him as baseline, with a some upside on top of that. He really finished strong last season and it looks like the #2 hole is a possibility.

This is more aggregate value than most of the other marginal OFs such as Jose Guillen, Aaron Rowand, Craig Monroe, Mike Cameron or whoever, and none of these guys have much in the line of upside.

Please tell me if I am crazy.
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Postby bellybrother » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:25 am

I think so. In my NL only, auction, keeper, he went for $17 last year. So you see what kinda inflation is going on. Now this year I don't see him being kept for that $17 cause of Uncle Cliffy. So let's say his price falls to $12. Well, that's not bad if you're not a Cliffy believer, health wise AND you're not sold on Jaque(itch) being happy now and weanting to stay. Still looks like they wanna trade him to me. I'll take those odds if I can for $10-$12.
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Postby JTWood » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:39 am

I just read the other day that the plans are to platoon him and Floyd.

Until Murton actually has a full-time spot, I wouldn't mark him as a sleeper.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:49 am

JTWood wrote:I just read the other day that the plans are to platoon him and Floyd.

Until Murton actually has a full-time spot, I wouldn't mark him as a sleeper.
That's the problem I have with him. He isn't even going to be a full-time starter at this point.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:52 am

I agree. I am really sort of annoyed about the Cubs signing Floyd, dropping 6 million/ year for a guy to get in Murton's way, hampering the development of yet ANOTHER young, Cub OF. They should have added that 6 million (or even just 3 or 4 million of it...) to what they were offering Zambrano and let Murton play.

He had a great 2nd half, young, can run AND hit and has decent on base skills with which to set the table but no, let's get a Jacques Jones clone, when we already have the orginal, and stick him on the opposite corner. It just baffles me. I would anticpate that Floyd will hurt something at some point in time but I can't guess that Murton will have sleepworthy value until that happens. :~(
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Postby EugeneStyles » Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:36 pm

I'm not that high on Murton. If you've ever watched him run, it reminds of no one so much as "The Penguin" Ron Cey. Murton is not particularly fleet of foot, nor does he have a whole lot of power. Not to mention that his defense is suspect (although I think this will improve, which doesn't matter fantasy-wise except that it means increased playing time). His main value to the Cubs is that he is a patient hitter with good plate discipline, and can make good contact to all fields.

If he plays full-time, I expect: .305, 15 HR, 60-80 RBI, 60-80 R, 5-10 SB.

The RBI, R, and probably SB depend on his place in the batting order. But unless he's been doing a ton of sprints in the offseason, I'd be surprised to see the high side of that range for SB.
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Postby chadlincoln » Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:46 pm

JTWood wrote:I just read the other day that the plans are to platoon him and Floyd.

Until Murton actually has a full-time spot, I wouldn't mark him as a sleeper.
As of now they are planning on splitting their time, which hurts both of their values. I'd take a flier on him, but Floyd could be rejuvenated in Wrigley.
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Postby Pochucker » Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:02 pm

Trust me, I have been following Floyd since he played in AFL, he will be down by middle of May at latest. Get Murton as a bench player would be good Idea and if someone beats you to him, remind them hes platooning. They might drop him before Floyd goes down if your lucky.
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