TOP ARBITRAGE SITUATIONS - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

TOP ARBITRAGE SITUATIONS

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

TOP ARBITRAGE SITUATIONS

Postby Willy T 4 MVP » Sat Mar 03, 2007 8:37 pm

It seems that going into every season the hype machine goes into effect for certain players, while virtually ignoring certain others. I have found that this creates excellent arbitrage opportunities for the shrewd managers out there.

as solid GMs, we all know to capitalize on underrated players and stay away from over-rated, over-hyped players. but what happens when ppl take this concept too far? when they overreact to someone being over/under-rated? what happens is they create an arbitrage opportunity for you to step in and grab bargains in unlikely places. its important to keep in mind that whats important is not a player's pure value, but his value based on where you can pick him.


Case in point:

Dan Uggla:

amazing season last year as a rookie. was very hyped going into the offseason. however the early buzz in fantasy circles this yr is that uggla is too overhyped and is in for a sophomore slump. i happen to agree that he is overrated. however, i think GMs this yr are over-reacting to this and allowing him to fall too late. If the early hype had him as a 5th-6th rounder, and the current backlash has him falling past the 10th, i think the 8th round is an excellent place to grab uggla. Uggla may be overrated but he can still be a value pick for you if you play your cards right.

Felix Hernandez:

the trendy pick for all the so-called experts heading into last season. he no doubt has soured thousands of GMs from ever drafting him again after his mini-disaster of a season. use this to your advantage. no one wants to be the guy to get burned by felix this yr, so he is falling WAY too far. if you look at the facts objectively and in hindsight, you'd see that he was overhyped last yr but is underhyped this yr. entering his 3rd professional season and with no innings cap, i think felix represents one of the best bargains around in 2007.

Dave Bush:

I am a huge fan of dave bush. having owned him last yr i, along with many other solid GMs, realized that his fantasy stats belied his true (sabermetric) ability as a pitcher. this season he was at the top of my list of breakout candidates. however the fantasy writing establishment has gone to great lengths this yr to pimp dave bush. it's gotten to the extent that i can no longer afford to draft him and will be avoiding him in most leagues. so even though i love dave bush, i think ppl have taken his "underratedness" so far that he is now over-rated.


Mark Texiera:

i drafted big tex last season and i swore never to draft him again. apparently every other GM on the planet feels the same way, as tex seems to be dropping past the top 25 this yr. if he's still there in round 3 i cant think of a rational reason not to take him.

Arod:

I absolutely despise arod. that being said i've seen him drop as low as 6th or 7th in drafts this yr bc ppl are soured on him. arod's fall from grace makes him a very attractive "bargain" draft choice if he falls anywhere out of the top 5.

Other players falling too far:

Manny
Bay
Michael Young


Players going too high:

Berkman
Matt Holliday
Derek Lee
Jermaine Dye
Ryan Zimmerman


Im actually a huge fan of holliday, zimmerman and lee. I just think that they are all going a round too early this season. For that reason I'm staying away from them.

Dont even get me started on the crop of young pitchers this year. Having picked up Hamels and Rich Hill off the wire last yr, i know what they're capable of. however, this season, the hype machine is working overtime on both of them. hill especially is being drafted WAY too high this season. these were 2 pitchers i was actually targetting early on, but given the draft price they are carrying this season, I am now staying away from both of them.

let just say though that this strategy is totally different for weak leagues compared to stronger leagues. in a weak league, you're likely to be the only one to know about all the breakout candidates and sleepers. The very fact that you frequent a site like this should give you an almost insurmountable advantage over your weak opponents. in a weak league you'd pick up rich hill in round 24 bc no one else has heard of him. in a strong league, you're likely to get a more established pitcher on the cheap bc some "expert" took rich hill before andy pettitte.

but lets assume that most of us play in leagues with a medium level of skill, with some experts and rookies mixed in. In such a league, I have found that the very best bargains can be found by using the other GMs' own research against them.

I'm curious to see what some of the experts think about these concepts in general and, to a lesser extent, about the specific players i've mentioned. what do you guys think? am i nuts? am i on to something?
Willy T 4 MVP
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 679
Joined: 10 May 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby IllinoisBandit » Sat Mar 03, 2007 9:03 pm

Great article. I agree with you almost across the board, but I'm buying Berkman mid-early 2nd round.
IllinoisBandit
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 615
Joined: 29 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby fremontbuck » Sun Mar 04, 2007 6:20 am

Don't sully the term arbitrage.

Arbitrage is when there is a simultaneous purchase and sale of the same securities, commodities, or foreign exchange in different markets to profit from unequal prices.

I don't think you can find a risk-free profit in fantasy baseball due to differences in "pricing" or drafting.
fremontbuck
Softball Supervisor
Softball Supervisor


Posts: 61
Joined: 30 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby CadensDad » Sun Mar 04, 2007 10:40 am

IllinoisBandit wrote:Great article. I agree with you almost across the board, but I'm buying Berkman mid-early 2nd round.


I agree Berkman is well worth his 2nd round pick he is getting, known to get you 30-40 homers AVG near or over .300 knock in 100 RBI's score 100 R's. Plus this will be the first year he has ever had a full time power hitter in the lineup with him. (Not counting Beltran from a few years back.) I think we should expect all of his numbers to stay the same and his RBI's and R's to go up.
Image

“Never argue with a idiot, because first they will bring you down to their level. Then beat you with experience.”
CadensDad
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Cafe RankerMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 5977
(Past Year: 2)
Joined: 25 Feb 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Willy T 4 MVP » Sun Mar 04, 2007 11:46 am

fremontbuck wrote:Don't sully the term arbitrage.

Arbitrage is when there is a simultaneous purchase and sale of the same securities, commodities, or foreign exchange in different markets to profit from unequal prices.

I don't think you can find a risk-free profit in fantasy baseball due to differences in "pricing" or drafting.


i see someone's google skills are sharp as ever. try not to take my disgrace of the term too seriously - this is a fantasy baseball forum afterall. you are correct though, a better term would be "finding bargains in unlikely places". either way, you are exploiting the market inefficiency created by GMs over-reacting to players being overtated or underrated. i find it quite interesting that the most "underrated" players can actually be a ripoff come draft day while the overhyped players can actually come mroe cheaply than you think.
Willy T 4 MVP
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 679
Joined: 10 May 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby Willy T 4 MVP » Sun Mar 04, 2007 12:01 pm

CadensDad wrote:
IllinoisBandit wrote:Great article. I agree with you almost across the board, but I'm buying Berkman mid-early 2nd round.


I agree Berkman is well worth his 2nd round pick he is getting, known to get you 30-40 homers AVG near or over .300 knock in 100 RBI's score 100 R's. Plus this will be the first year he has ever had a full time power hitter in the lineup with him. (Not counting Beltran from a few years back.) I think we should expect all of his numbers to stay the same and his RBI's and R's to go up.


berkman is certainly a great hitter with a proven track record. however, he hasn't had a season even remotely close to last yr's power production since 2002 - at the magical age of 27. i personally see his power numbers declining significantly and reverting much closer to his career avg of about 30 hr. thats not to say i wouldnt love to have the guy on my team, i just think ppl expecting last yr's numbers will be disappointed. for my $ id much rather take texiera in rd 3 than berkman in early rd 2 (which is where he's typically being selected).
Willy T 4 MVP
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 679
Joined: 10 May 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball

Postby greenandgold » Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:23 pm

Death To Funston! wrote:
CadensDad wrote:
IllinoisBandit wrote:Great article. I agree with you almost across the board, but I'm buying Berkman mid-early 2nd round.


I agree Berkman is well worth his 2nd round pick he is getting, known to get you 30-40 homers AVG near or over .300 knock in 100 RBI's score 100 R's. Plus this will be the first year he has ever had a full time power hitter in the lineup with him. (Not counting Beltran from a few years back.) I think we should expect all of his numbers to stay the same and his RBI's and R's to go up.


berkman is certainly a great hitter with a proven track record. however, he hasn't had a season even remotely close to last yr's power production since 2002 - at the magical age of 27. i personally see his power numbers declining significantly and reverting much closer to his career avg of about 30 hr. thats not to say i wouldnt love to have the guy on my team, i just think ppl expecting last yr's numbers will be disappointed. for my $ id much rather take texiera in rd 3 than berkman in early rd 2 (which is where he's typically being selected).


I don't really see Teix falling to the third round aside from the most shallow or crappy leagues. I would much rather take Teix in the third round but it just isn't going to happen, especially if you are at the end where you would have the option of taking Berman in early second.

As for the top post, it is nice but I just don't think your assumptions match reality. First is the comment on Teix, in Yahoo! his ADP (thanks for the awesome post GTWMA) is ~20, in knowledgable leagues he will go earlier.

As for Uggla, his ADP in Yahoo! is ~70 which is about 6th round. I can't imagine him falling to the 10th in any league, but on the other hand I can't see him being worth even a 10th round pick with the distribution of 2B talent this year.

Some things I agree with are Manny falling too far and D. Lee and Dye going too high.
greenandgold
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 746
Joined: 11 Oct 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Goin' home with the Armadillo

Postby greenandgold » Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:24 pm

fremontbuck wrote:Don't sully the term arbitrage.

Arbitrage is when there is a simultaneous purchase and sale of the same securities, commodities, or foreign exchange in different markets to profit from unequal prices.

I don't think you can find a risk-free profit in fantasy baseball due to differences in "pricing" or drafting.


Definitions have little meaning in this place - shallow or deep can be used to describe any position, might as well throw this word into the crapper too...
greenandgold
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar
Cafe RankerMatchup Meltdown Survivor
Posts: 746
Joined: 11 Oct 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Goin' home with the Armadillo

Postby bigwords » Sun Mar 04, 2007 1:49 pm

Great thoughts. I was thinking the same things myself.
bigwords
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1026
Joined: 7 Jun 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball


Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: scarnicease and 10 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Aug. 20
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Texas at Miami
(12:40 pm)
indoors
Seattle at Philadelphia
(1:05 pm)
Toronto at Milwaukee
(2:10 pm)
NY Mets at Oakland
(3:35 pm)
Houston at NY Yankees
(7:05 pm)
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
(7:05 pm)
Arizona at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Detroit at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
LA Angels at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Cincinnati at St. Louis
(7:15 pm)
San Francisco at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
Baltimore at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Cleveland at Minnesota
(8:10 pm)
Kansas City at Colorado
(8:40 pm)
San Diego at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact