I don't think the actual risk with him is all that much higher, just the preceived risk. People drafting him last year expected him to become a perennial fantasy ace, fact is, he wasn't quite ready for that regardless the 200 strikeouts. He needs to add another plus pitch before that can happen. However, his stuff is certainly good enough for him to get by and I wouldn't count out a repeat of his 06 campaign. Let's remember, he did post a career high in innings that year so we could've (maybe should've given his age) expected some drop off the subsequent season. I also think he got a little unlucky last year since his peripheral numbers didn't show much of a regression.
Field wrote:I don't think the actual risk with him is all that much higher, just the preceived risk. People drafting him last year expected him to become a perennial fantasy ace, fact is, he wasn't quite ready for that regardless the 200 strikeouts. He needs to add another plus pitch before that can happen. However, his stuff is certainly good enough for him to get by and I wouldn't count out a repeat of his 06 campaign. Let's remember, he did post a career high in innings that year so we could've (maybe should've given his age) expected some drop off the subsequent season. I also think he got a little unlucky last year since his peripheral numbers didn't show much of a regression.
How do you figure his actual risk is not that much higher this year compared to previous years? He had an elbow injury that caused him to suck and then eventually shut down for the season.
In fact, if the risk isn't that much higher then why is he getting drafted 6-7 rounds later than he was in 07?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Ender wrote:Good sleeper in roto, not so great in H2H.
Why not? IMO, hot starters are gold in H2H - especially keepers. He helps you win quite a few weeks at the beginning of the season. After a couple months, when teams start to separate, you go to someone at the bottom and offer them Bonderman in return for some guys that are good for late-season outbursts and make the trade. Now you've pawned off his second-half slump on someone else, and you're bound for the playoffs.
In roto, teams know that they have longer to compete, so they'll sit on their second-half guys and not trade them so easily.
If you ask me, Bonderman's value is actually the opposite of what you just said.
Nobody in the leagues i play in would trade for Bonderman by the all star break. I'm stuck with a guy who fades every year and who I'm probably going to be afraid to use in the playoffs. Maybe in crappy leagues where people don't know anything about Bonderman you can do this but certainly not in the ones I play in. H2H is all about playing for the end of the season so this is exactly the type of guy you want to stay away.
In Roto you ride him while you can and then if he starts to go south you can just dump him and replace him and you get to keep the stats he's earned for you which remain valuable even after he is off your roster.
I do it on occasion as well. I don't specifically do it, per se, but if it comes down between a few guys later in the draft I'll draft someone thinking that if he is hot out of the gates, or anytime early in the season, he would be a great sell high type of guy!
Field wrote:I don't think the actual risk with him is all that much higher, just the preceived risk. People drafting him last year expected him to become a perennial fantasy ace, fact is, he wasn't quite ready for that regardless the 200 strikeouts. He needs to add another plus pitch before that can happen. However, his stuff is certainly good enough for him to get by and I wouldn't count out a repeat of his 06 campaign. Let's remember, he did post a career high in innings that year so we could've (maybe should've given his age) expected some drop off the subsequent season. I also think he got a little unlucky last year since his peripheral numbers didn't show much of a regression.
How do you figure his actual risk is not that much higher this year compared to previous years? He had an elbow injury that caused him to suck and then eventually shut down for the season.
In fact, if the risk isn't that much higher then why is he getting drafted 6-7 rounds later than he was in 07?
My bad, I completely forgot about the elbow issue at the end of the year for some reason which kind of negates my comment about risk. I kind of just assumed that it was his typical second half fizzle more than an injury. However, my thought process was (was being the key word here) that his draft stock has fallen more-so because of his 2007 performance rather than any inherent increase in risk.
Field wrote:How do you figure his actual risk is not that much higher this year compared to previous years? He had an elbow injury that caused him to suck and then eventually shut down for the season.
In fact, if the risk isn't that much higher then why is he getting drafted 6-7 rounds later than he was in 07?
My bad, I completely forgot about the elbow issue at the end of the year for some reason which kind of negates my comment about risk. I kind of just assumed that it was his typical second half fizzle more than an injury. However, my thought process was (was being the key word here) that his draft stock has fallen more-so because of his 2007 performance rather than any inherent increase in risk.
I have heard nothing about how Bonderman's elbow is and wonder just how much it was bothering him. There are thoughts that they might have shut him down to try and figure out how to unscrew this guys head. For some reason he cannot start a game well and it started to look like it snowballed on him last season. I would feel much better about him if it were simply his elbow. I am very cautious about what Bonderman has to offer this season and will be drafting accordingly.
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by Field » Thu Feb 14, 2008 3:25 pm 
