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3rd yr pitchers and 27 yr old hitters

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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:43 pm

Ender wrote:
Yoda wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I just have to say that there is no good statistical evidence that supports the idea that you should specifically target 27 year old or 3rd year pitchers.

While the data do show that age 27 is the most frequent peak age, it still shows that only about 10 percent of players peak specifically at that age. While focusing on players in the range of ages 24-30 will get players who are at or near their peak, focusing exclusively on 27 year old players is a poor strategy.

There's even less statistical support for focusing on 3rd year pitchers.


Who came up with the 3rd year pitcher crap? Also, pitchers peak age is past 27 if I recall correctly.


I've always gone after pitchers with roughly 500 IP's and positive career trends and its been a large part of my success in fantasy baseball. The 27 year old thing is less reliable than the pitchers in my opinion, its not generally the age that matters as much as the playtime does.

The theory I go by is by 700 IP and 2000 AB's you've probably seen the best a player has to offer (looking at skillsets not actual counting stats) and it takes roughly 300-400 IP(2-3 years) for a pitcher to fully mature and 1250-1500(2-3 full seasons) AB's for a hitter to fully mature. So I like to target players who have shown even subtle signs of growth that fit into those ranges.


Well, ok but we are talking about physical peak here I think.

Experience doesn't really matter to me as long as they have a good upward trending skill sets (including minors). If someone had a breakout 2nd half the previous year: for instance see Halladay, Holliday, Sabathia, then that is more important to me than how many IP/AB the player has in MLB.
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Postby Ender » Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:56 pm


Well, ok but we are talking about physical peak here I think.

Experience doesn't really matter to me as long as they have a good upward trending skill sets (including minors). If someone had a breakout 2nd half the previous year: for instance see Halladay, Holliday, Sabathia, then that is more important to me than how many IP/AB the player has in MLB.


yeah but a 32 year old having a breakout 2nd half certainly doesn't get you as excited as a 25 year old I'd assume, even if they have similar playtime in the majors. To me when a player breaks out with under 1000 AB's I don't trust it, Hanley Ramirez is a good example. I just don't know that its repeatable. I think Hanley's value would be higher if he had another 500 AB season under his belt, even if that season was a good bit worse than last years.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 26, 2007 2:02 pm

Ender wrote:

Well, ok but we are talking about physical peak here I think.

Experience doesn't really matter to me as long as they have a good upward trending skill sets (including minors). If someone had a breakout 2nd half the previous year: for instance see Halladay, Holliday, Sabathia, then that is more important to me than how many IP/AB the player has in MLB.


yeah but a 32 year old having a breakout 2nd half certainly doesn't get you as excited as a 25 year old I'd assume, even if they have similar playtime in the majors. To me when a player breaks out with under 1000 AB's I don't trust it, Hanley Ramirez is a good example. I just don't know that its repeatable. I think Hanley's value would be higher if he had another 500 AB season under his belt, even if that season was a good bit worse than last years.


Yeah you do have to keep age in mind. Hanley is a good example of someone I would avoid this season. Guys who completely breakout like he did and looking at his ADP, there is no way I am paying for him until I see him do it again.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:33 pm

Ender wrote:I've always gone after pitchers with roughly 500 IP's and positive career trends and its been a large part of my success in fantasy baseball. The 27 year old thing is less reliable than the pitchers in my opinion, its not generally the age that matters as much as the playtime does.

The theory I go by is by 700 IP and 2000 AB's you've probably seen the best a player has to offer (looking at skillsets not actual counting stats) and it takes roughly 300-400 IP(2-3 years) for a pitcher to fully mature and 1250-1500(2-3 full seasons) AB's for a hitter to fully mature. So I like to target players who have shown even subtle signs of growth that fit into those ranges.


Theories are fine, but what I care about is what the data show. I do know that the LOTS of data show that, on average, player performance increases up until age 27 and declines thereafter (that's a gross generalization of the data). I don't know of any data that supports your theory, but it would be interesting to see a comparison.
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