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3rd yr pitchers and 27 yr old hitters

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3rd yr pitchers and 27 yr old hitters

Postby shoelessjoetara » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:17 am

Does anyone have a list of the two?
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Postby Havok1517 » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:34 am

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Postby Old_Style » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:38 am

I believe CBS has an article about 27 year old hitters and third year pitchers in their fantasy baseball magazine every year.
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Postby deerayfan072 » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:39 am

Adam Dunn 27 and still K'ing :-b

He is still gonna bomb but can't get grip on that avg
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:51 am

CBS has been pretty nice thus far. Probably because they have free content versus ESPN's insider crap. But I like their rankings and articlues much better this year. Does anyone actually pay ESPN to read Karabell telling us not to draft Liriano this year? :-b
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Postby shoelessjoetara » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:59 am

I have seen the sportsline article,but I was hoping to see a printable list.
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Postby chadlincoln » Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:12 am

Maybe Beltre will have a... oh wait, nevermind.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:51 pm

I just have to say that there is no good statistical evidence that supports the idea that you should specifically target 27 year old or 3rd year pitchers.

While the data do show that age 27 is the most frequent peak age, it still shows that only about 10 percent of players peak specifically at that age. While focusing on players in the range of ages 24-30 will get players who are at or near their peak, focusing exclusively on 27 year old players is a poor strategy.

There's even less statistical support for focusing on 3rd year pitchers.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:57 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I just have to say that there is no good statistical evidence that supports the idea that you should specifically target 27 year old or 3rd year pitchers.

While the data do show that age 27 is the most frequent peak age, it still shows that only about 10 percent of players peak specifically at that age. While focusing on players in the range of ages 24-30 will get players who are at or near their peak, focusing exclusively on 27 year old players is a poor strategy.

There's even less statistical support for focusing on 3rd year pitchers.


Who came up with the 3rd year pitcher crap? Also, pitchers peak age is past 27 if I recall correctly.
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Postby Ender » Mon Feb 26, 2007 1:25 pm

Yoda wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I just have to say that there is no good statistical evidence that supports the idea that you should specifically target 27 year old or 3rd year pitchers.

While the data do show that age 27 is the most frequent peak age, it still shows that only about 10 percent of players peak specifically at that age. While focusing on players in the range of ages 24-30 will get players who are at or near their peak, focusing exclusively on 27 year old players is a poor strategy.

There's even less statistical support for focusing on 3rd year pitchers.


Who came up with the 3rd year pitcher crap? Also, pitchers peak age is past 27 if I recall correctly.


I've always gone after pitchers with roughly 500 IP's and positive career trends and its been a large part of my success in fantasy baseball. The 27 year old thing is less reliable than the pitchers in my opinion, its not generally the age that matters as much as the playtime does.

The theory I go by is by 700 IP and 2000 AB's you've probably seen the best a player has to offer (looking at skillsets not actual counting stats) and it takes roughly 300-400 IP(2-3 years) for a pitcher to fully mature and 1250-1500(2-3 full seasons) AB's for a hitter to fully mature. So I like to target players who have shown even subtle signs of growth that fit into those ranges.
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