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Postby Tavish » Mon Feb 26, 2007 10:15 pm

Ender wrote:
Tavish wrote:Bonderman at #51 and the #8 pitcher off the board is way too high.


I don't know about that, last year his xERA was 3.16, he K'd 202 hitters and it took a high hit rate in the 2nd half to put his WHIP at 1.30.

I don't think I'd take him quite that high but I have no problems with him 9th or 10th. I'd rather have him than Zambrano(really down on him this year) and he's pretty comperable to Lackey who went in the next round. All its going to take for him to be a top 7 or 8 pitcher is more stamina during the end of the season.


The BABIP increase wasn't the only reason for the 2nd half falter. His HR rate came back to reality after a ridiculous 1st half and his walk rate increased back near his normal level. He also was the recipient of some of the best bullpen support in the majors. And that wasn't simply due to the Tigers having a tremendous pen, the other 3 main stays in the rotation all had much worse support from the bullpen.

Bonderman was around the 20th best starter last season in a 5X5 mixed league. Even taking away the pitchers that are injured heading into this season and banking on an improvement from Bonderman it is really hard for me to justify him being the #50 overall pick. He did much better value-wise getting Haren and Young 3 and 4 rounds later who are going to be almost exactly the same value.
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Postby Djones » Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:24 pm

good picks
Harden 8th
Gagne 13th
Laroche 8th

might be reaching:
Smoltz 5th
Prior 8th
Gordon 10th
Bonderman 4th
Clemens 11th
Piazza 8th
Cameron 10th
Sheets 5th
Drew 7th

just my opinion, and i haven't gone thru all of them...
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:26 am

Tavish wrote:
Ender wrote:
Tavish wrote:Bonderman at #51 and the #8 pitcher off the board is way too high.


I don't know about that, last year his xERA was 3.16, he K'd 202 hitters and it took a high hit rate in the 2nd half to put his WHIP at 1.30.

I don't think I'd take him quite that high but I have no problems with him 9th or 10th. I'd rather have him than Zambrano(really down on him this year) and he's pretty comperable to Lackey who went in the next round. All its going to take for him to be a top 7 or 8 pitcher is more stamina during the end of the season.


The BABIP increase wasn't the only reason for the 2nd half falter. His HR rate came back to reality after a ridiculous 1st half and his walk rate increased back near his normal level. He also was the recipient of some of the best bullpen support in the majors. And that wasn't simply due to the Tigers having a tremendous pen, the other 3 main stays in the rotation all had much worse support from the bullpen.

Bonderman was around the 20th best starter last season in a 5X5 mixed league. Even taking away the pitchers that are injured heading into this season and banking on an improvement from Bonderman it is really hard for me to justify him being the #50 overall pick. He did much better value-wise getting Haren and Young 3 and 4 rounds later who are going to be almost exactly the same value.


My numbers show Bonderman as the #12 SP last year and I'd gladly pick him over Mussina and Arroyo who both beat him and have him neck and neck with Zambrano who I think is on the downslide. I wouldn't have a problem taking him over Smoltz given the age issues. I guess we just rate pitchers very very differently if you have him at 20.
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Postby Tavish » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:59 am

Ender wrote:My numbers show Bonderman as the #12 SP last year and I'd gladly pick him over Mussina and Arroyo who both beat him and have him neck and neck with Zambrano who I think is on the downslide. I wouldn't have a problem taking him over Smoltz given the age issues. I guess we just rate pitchers very very differently if you have him at 20.


I'm guessing you give a much higher value to K's than I do. Here are a few other 2006 ratings:
RotoTimes - 18th
Yahoo - 13th
TQStats - 18th
StallValue - 16th
FSC - 17th

So chances are that Bonderman was likely somewhere between my 20th and your 12th. I'm also assuming that you have Liriano's performance valued higher than Bonderman's and you would draft Bonderman well before Liriano this season. That would make him your #7 overall SP? What sort of improvement are you projecting to make him that much better or is it more of a regression by the other pitchers?
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:54 am

Tavish wrote:
Ender wrote:My numbers show Bonderman as the #12 SP last year and I'd gladly pick him over Mussina and Arroyo who both beat him and have him neck and neck with Zambrano who I think is on the downslide. I wouldn't have a problem taking him over Smoltz given the age issues. I guess we just rate pitchers very very differently if you have him at 20.


I'm guessing you give a much higher value to K's than I do. Here are a few other 2006 ratings:
RotoTimes - 18th
Yahoo - 13th
TQStats - 18th
StallValue - 16th
FSC - 17th

So chances are that Bonderman was likely somewhere between my 20th and your 12th. I'm also assuming that you have Liriano's performance valued higher than Bonderman's and you would draft Bonderman well before Liriano this season. That would make him your #7 overall SP? What sort of improvement are you projecting to make him that much better or is it more of a regression by the other pitchers?


22nd in IP
29th in W's
6th in K's
26th in ERA out of pitchers with 190+ IP
27th in WHIP out of pitchers with 190+ IP

Yep you are correct, I place more importance on K's than any other stat. Its by far the most reliable fantasy stat. I place very little importance on W's and ERA because they are a crapshoot more times than not. I also play H2H which tends to favor K's so in roto I could see him slipping more.

I still think he's trending upwards on a slighly above average team (though they wont' come close to playoffs this year) so I don't have a huge problem with where he was drafted, I wouldn't take him quite that high but its not as bad a pick as some others.
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Postby MashinSpuds » Tue Feb 27, 2007 9:04 am

Djones wrote:
might be reaching:
Piazza 8th
Cameron 10th

just my opinion, and i haven't gone thru all of them...


I was wondering if someone was going to mention Piazza... 8th is about the time I realized that we needed two catchers. Maybe I jumped.

Cameron was the best OF available at the time since I was late to the OF party. Despite his iffy Avg, he's relatively solid in 4 categories. Sexier picks to take, but...
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Postby TheRawDAWG » Tue Feb 27, 2007 12:28 pm

Djones wrote:good picks
Harden 8th
Gagne 13th
Laroche 8th

might be reaching:
Smoltz 5th
Prior 8th
Gordon 10th
Bonderman 4th
Clemens 11th
Piazza 8th
Cameron 10th
Sheets 5th
Drew 7th

just my opinion, and i haven't gone thru all of them...


Sheets in the 5th of a 14 teamer is a reach? Are you kidding me? I'm not even a Sheets fan but the dude could easily be a 1st round value. Probably the only guy capable of Santana numbers or besting Santana numbers. Actually didn't think he was going to make it around to me in the 5th...as the LAST pick in the 5th.


Also, I'd like to apologize to the guys in this draft. I got called into a meeting at about the 7th round. So I'm sorry I wan't around to finish the draft.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 27, 2007 1:08 pm

A half year of sheets mixed with a half year of some random guy off the FA list will put up 5th round numbers most likely~

He is one of a very short list of pitchers that could actually be the most valuable SP in fantasy baseball and unlike some other injury issues he came back and pitched healthy to end the season last year.
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Postby SmartassBoiler » Tue Feb 27, 2007 4:10 pm

Djones wrote:might be reaching:
Smoltz 5th
Sheets 5th


I agree with most of your list, but I disagree on these two.

Like mentioned above, Sheets has lights out potential. In the 5th round as the 70th pick, I don't think that's a reach at all. He ended last season healthy, which is a good sign for this upcoming season.

Smoltz is not a sexy, high-upside pick, but he's produced 30 wins, 380 Ks, and solid ratios the last two seasons. A decline is possible, but he's still pitching very well and don't provide much risk outside of his age.
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Postby jwhands » Tue Feb 27, 2007 4:18 pm

Prior is not a reach in Rd 8. This guy is one of the top SPs in the bigs when healthy. He is coming into camp 100% for the first time in years, and I believe he will put up #s deserving of a starter in the top tier of pitchers drafted. So Rd 8 to me is a steal for an ace.
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