Havok1517 wrote:Hill likely won't pitch as badly as he did the 1st half and will not come close to pitching as well as he did in the 2nd half. Somewhere in between. Anyone that projects him better than that is really gambling and will likely lose.
You're right that this is gambling, but are the odds really so bad? There will likely be a regression to some hereto non-existent mean for Hill, but who's to say that mean is not pretty close to his second half numbers--not his September stats alone, but his stats since his last call-up?
I see two good reasons and one dubious reason why his post-callup stats are not sustainable:
1. He was simply hot then, nailing pitches more than he's capable
2. The league will get used to him, as they do to all pitchers (except Santana).
3. There was no massive scouting/homer-hype-machine surrounding Hill like what there is for Hamels, Bailey, Hughes etc (so we're a bit more skeptical about his talents)
I see two big reasons/suggestions why his later stats may be pretty close to his capability:
1. He showed immense skill in the minors, and his later 2006 stats may already nearly correct for the league change (sub-4.00 era instead of a sub-2.00 era, a low but not absurdly low WHIP, etc)
2. Hill's early 2006 stats were influenced by the psychological factors (read: nerves, self-consciousness, etc) involved with joining the big club that early in the season, and affected his ability
Just my two (or five, I guess) cents... But why do you think he'll "not come close" to pitching like his second half?