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Rich Hill projections?

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Rich Hill projections?

Postby HaZe » Sat Feb 24, 2007 4:49 pm

What do you see from him in 2007?

He's available in my 12 teamer... 15th round. I hate drafting 2nd year pitchers..... never know what to expect.


Any opinions would help, thanks.
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Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:02 pm

i would definitely take him there

AAA after he was sent down last year:
7-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135 Ks in 100 innings

After being called back up:
53.3 innings
3.21 ERA
1.11 WHIP
7.8 K/9
2.9 BB/9
1.2 HR/9
7.1 H/9

Bill James projects:
13 wins, 3.40 era, 1.16 whip and a massive 241 Ks in 201 innings

Zips projects:
12 wins, 3.65 era, 1.17 whip and 190 Ks in 175 innings

easily worth a 15 round pick IMO
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Postby Havok1517 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:08 pm

Hill likely won't pitch as badly as he did the 1st half and will not come close to pitching as well as he did in the 2nd half. Somewhere in between. Anyone that projects him better than that is really gambling and will likely lose.
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Postby BigLebowski » Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:27 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:i would definitely take him there

AAA after he was sent down last year:
7-1, 1.80 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 135 Ks in 100 innings

After being called back up:
53.3 innings
3.21 ERA
1.11 WHIP
7.8 K/9
2.9 BB/9
1.2 HR/9
7.1 H/9

Bill James projects:
13 wins, 3.40 era, 1.16 whip and a massive 241 Ks in 201 innings

Zips projects:
12 wins, 3.65 era, 1.17 whip and 190 Ks in 175 innings

easily worth a 15 round pick IMO


My projections have him about where Zips has him.
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Postby Denmarch » Sat Feb 24, 2007 6:16 pm

Havok1517 wrote:Hill likely won't pitch as badly as he did the 1st half and will not come close to pitching as well as he did in the 2nd half. Somewhere in between. Anyone that projects him better than that is really gambling and will likely lose.


You're right that this is gambling, but are the odds really so bad? There will likely be a regression to some hereto non-existent mean for Hill, but who's to say that mean is not pretty close to his second half numbers--not his September stats alone, but his stats since his last call-up?

I see two good reasons and one dubious reason why his post-callup stats are not sustainable:
1. He was simply hot then, nailing pitches more than he's capable
2. The league will get used to him, as they do to all pitchers (except Santana).
3. There was no massive scouting/homer-hype-machine surrounding Hill like what there is for Hamels, Bailey, Hughes etc (so we're a bit more skeptical about his talents)

I see two big reasons/suggestions why his later stats may be pretty close to his capability:
1. He showed immense skill in the minors, and his later 2006 stats may already nearly correct for the league change (sub-4.00 era instead of a sub-2.00 era, a low but not absurdly low WHIP, etc)
2. Hill's early 2006 stats were influenced by the psychological factors (read: nerves, self-consciousness, etc) involved with joining the big club that early in the season, and affected his ability

Just my two (or five, I guess) cents... But why do you think he'll "not come close" to pitching like his second half?
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Postby Old_Style » Sat Feb 24, 2007 6:26 pm

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Postby DevilDriver » Sat Feb 24, 2007 7:06 pm

Havok1517 wrote:Hill likely won't pitch as badly as he did the 1st half and will not come close to pitching as well as he did in the 2nd half. Somewhere in between. Anyone that projects him better than that is really gambling and will likely lose.

I agree. I don't think his stuff is good enough to come close to matching his second half.
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Postby Fade2White12 » Sun Feb 25, 2007 12:43 am

DevilDriver wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Hill likely won't pitch as badly as he did the 1st half and will not come close to pitching as well as he did in the 2nd half. Somewhere in between. Anyone that projects him better than that is really gambling and will likely lose.

I agree. I don't think his stuff is good enough to come close to matching his second half.


He has a sweet wicked 12-6, not to mention he's been working on his cutter and change much more to compliment that plus pitch of his. He has GREAT stuff.
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Postby Snakes Gould » Sun Feb 25, 2007 12:49 am

i think 241 ks is a bit much :-°
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Postby DevilDriver » Sun Feb 25, 2007 1:21 am

Fade2White12 wrote:
DevilDriver wrote:
Havok1517 wrote:Hill likely won't pitch as badly as he did the 1st half and will not come close to pitching as well as he did in the 2nd half. Somewhere in between. Anyone that projects him better than that is really gambling and will likely lose.

I agree. I don't think his stuff is good enough to come close to matching his second half.


He has a sweet wicked 12-6, not to mention he's been working on his cutter and change much more to compliment that plus pitch of his. He has GREAT stuff.

He's mainly a two-pitch guy. Other than his great curve, his fastball is high 80s/low 90s. Good stuff, but not remotely ace quality.
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