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What's the earliest you would draft Mi-Cab?

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Postby duckbillgates » Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:37 pm

mak1277 wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why you'd draft Reyes ahead of him in a redraft, but not in a keeper? Aren't they roughly the same age?


I would take Reyes above him in either.

But I think the logic behind that generally is that you can expect Cabrera to improve as a hitter year-to-year, potentially developing into an annual MVP/Triple Crown candidate.

Reyes, on the other hand, gets the bulk of his value as a basestealer, and that's more volatile over the course of a career. As his legs get older, potential injuries take a toll or even a switch to a manager less prone to let him steal bases, his fantasy future is a lot more murky.

This is precisely why I'd rather build a keeper team around a Pujols or a Miguel Cabrera than a Jose Reyes or a Carl Crawford. But that's just me.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 24, 2007 5:43 pm

mak1277 wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why you'd draft Reyes ahead of him in a redraft, but not in a keeper? Aren't they roughly the same age?


Because MCab is a better hitter? Most of Reyes' value is tied to SBs.
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Postby A Fleshner Fantasy » Sat Feb 24, 2007 6:13 pm

Yoda wrote:
mak1277 wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why you'd draft Reyes ahead of him in a redraft, but not in a keeper? Aren't they roughly the same age?


Because MCab is a better hitter? Most of Reyes' value is tied to SBs.


That being said, I would still take Reyes #2 in a keeper, and MCAB #3...very close though, and you can't really go wrong with either of them
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Postby KronJon » Sat Feb 24, 2007 6:22 pm

So, I just drafted my first team of the year and drafted Miguel Cabrera with the 11th pick. It was either Cabrera, or Crawford. I took Cabrera, and Crawford was drafted next. So I went with Vlad as my second pick instead.

12-team Yahoo standard 5x5 roto.

C Kenji Johjima (C)
1B Paul Konerko (1B)
2B Ryan Freel (2B,3B,OF)
3B Miguel Cabrera (3B)
SS Miguel Tejada (SS)
OF Vladimir Guerrero (OF)
OF Rocco Baldelli (OF)
OF Willy Taveras (OF)
UTIL Prince Fielder (1B)
BN Dave Roberts (OF)
BN Chris Burke (2B,OF)

SP Jake Peavy
SP Ben Sheets
RP Huston Street
RP Francisco Cordero
P Takashi Saito
P Solomon Torres
P Scott Kazmir
BN A.J. Burnett
BN John Patterson
BN Scott Olsen
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Postby mak1277 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 6:58 pm

Yoda wrote:
mak1277 wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why you'd draft Reyes ahead of him in a redraft, but not in a keeper? Aren't they roughly the same age?


Because MCab is a better hitter? Most of Reyes' value is tied to SBs.


I don't disagree with that. But if MCab is a better hitter, shouldn't he be drafted ahead of Reyes in a redraft also? That's my only point.

If you value Reyes above MCab, I don't see why that value wouldn't carryover to a keeper as well.
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Postby DevilDriver » Sat Feb 24, 2007 7:14 pm

mak1277 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
mak1277 wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why you'd draft Reyes ahead of him in a redraft, but not in a keeper? Aren't they roughly the same age?


Because MCab is a better hitter? Most of Reyes' value is tied to SBs.


I don't disagree with that. But if MCab is a better hitter, shouldn't he be drafted ahead of Reyes in a redraft also? That's my only point.

If you value Reyes above MCab, I don't see why that value wouldn't carryover to a keeper as well.

I agree. Reyes has alot of upside too, so there's no reason why not to also rank him ahead in a keeper. If Cabrera was a 40 HR hitter, I'd take him, but he's in a sub par lineup in a terrible park for RHB. Obviously MCab is one of the game's best hitters and better in real life, but Reyes produces more in fantasy.
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Feb 24, 2007 7:24 pm

mak1277 wrote:But if MCab is a better hitter, shouldn't he be drafted ahead of Reyes in a redraft also? That's my only point.

In a redraft you're evaluating value based on one year. In a keeper the general rule of thumb is three years. I don't think it's that odd to prefer a player in the short term and prefer another in the long term.
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Postby DevilDriver » Sat Feb 24, 2007 7:30 pm

Amazinz wrote:
mak1277 wrote:But if MCab is a better hitter, shouldn't he be drafted ahead of Reyes in a redraft also? That's my only point.

In a redraft you're evaluating value based on one year. In a keeper the general rule of thumb is three years. I don't think it's that odd to prefer a player in the short term and prefer another in the long term.

Of course it's not, but when the player is a 23 yo SS with .300/20+/60+ upside in the long term it would be hard to prefer another player over him that you wouldn't in the short term.
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Postby Amazinz » Sat Feb 24, 2007 7:42 pm

I don't think it's hard if you're expecting exponential growth from Cabrera. Not that I necessarily agree with that but it's not unreasonable. You might also factor in the possibility that Cabrera could be playing for a different team over the next three years. Reyes already plays in good offense. I would personally take Reyes over Cabrera in both a keeper or redraft. I was not arguing that, just that I understand the thought process of someone who'd prefer Reyes this year but Cabrera over the next three.
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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 24, 2007 7:48 pm

DevilDriver wrote:
mak1277 wrote:
Yoda wrote:
mak1277 wrote:Someone needs to explain to me why you'd draft Reyes ahead of him in a redraft, but not in a keeper? Aren't they roughly the same age?


Because MCab is a better hitter? Most of Reyes' value is tied to SBs.


I don't disagree with that. But if MCab is a better hitter, shouldn't he be drafted ahead of Reyes in a redraft also? That's my only point.

If you value Reyes above MCab, I don't see why that value wouldn't carryover to a keeper as well.

I agree. Reyes has alot of upside too, so there's no reason why not to also rank him ahead in a keeper. If Cabrera was a 40 HR hitter, I'd take him, but he's in a sub par lineup in a terrible park for RHB. Obviously MCab is one of the game's best hitters and better in real life, but Reyes produces more in fantasy.


I think that MCab is a safer bet to produce. Reyes broke out last year and until I see him do it again, it's hard for me to put him ahead of MCab.
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