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Postby ctt8410 » Fri Feb 23, 2007 4:18 pm

Anyone have any issues with weird projections popping up in PECOTA's player forecast manager? I typed in my league settings and Aubrey Huff came up as the 7th best player ahead of Jose Reyes. The projection has him with 117 RBI which would blow away even his 2003 season. Am I missing something here? He came up with an abormally large number of plate appearances at 843. Any suggestions?
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Postby Philliebuster » Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:48 pm

I'm glad you posted this because I just received the same results for Huff, his 29 hr and 100+ RBI seem inflated, and do not correspond to the PECOTA card. None of the projections really exactly correspond to the PECOTA cards, but the Huff projection is way off.
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Postby Ratdog90 » Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:53 pm

Has anyone done a post season review of the PECOTA rankings? I would love to see what their success rate is, or actually their standard deviation from their projections would be a better question.
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Postby Philliebuster » Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:56 pm

Ratdog90 wrote:Has anyone done a post season review of the PECOTA rankings? I would love to see what their success rate is, or actually their standard deviation from their projections would be a better question.


Search the site, PECOTA has shown to be one of the more favorable projection systems for both batters and pitchers. Zips is pretty good for pitching.
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Postby Dawgpound 1613 » Fri Feb 23, 2007 5:59 pm

They will tell you they are the best (when looking only at full-time players and only looking at projected OPS).

Personally, I think they value saves and SB too much, so I have to adjust their values. But, it is another opinion. I do think as PT becomes more solidified, they get better values.

But, right now, I think the values are a little rough around the edges.
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Postby Steve-o » Fri Feb 23, 2007 6:26 pm

Philliebuster wrote:I'm glad you posted this because I just received the same results for Huff, his 29 hr and 100+ RBI seem inflated, and do not correspond to the PECOTA card. None of the projections really exactly correspond to the PECOTA cards, but the Huff projection is way off.


That's because the PECOTA cards used the weighted mean, whereas the PFM tries to incorporate the actual playing time of the ball player.
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Postby Philliebuster » Fri Feb 23, 2007 9:36 pm

Steve-o wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:I'm glad you posted this because I just received the same results for Huff, his 29 hr and 100+ RBI seem inflated, and do not correspond to the PECOTA card. None of the projections really exactly correspond to the PECOTA cards, but the Huff projection is way off.


That's because the PECOTA cards used the weighted mean, whereas the PFM tries to incorporate the actual playing time of the ball player.


Can you please elaborate? I need a idiots guide to these Pecota cards. So the Pecota cards don't necessarily take into consideration playing time? Nor the Five-year forecast? Hmm, they're pretty high on the Huffster then. I may have gotten in a bit over my head with these PECOTAs.
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Postby Steve-o » Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:05 pm

Philliebuster wrote:
Steve-o wrote:
Philliebuster wrote:I'm glad you posted this because I just received the same results for Huff, his 29 hr and 100+ RBI seem inflated, and do not correspond to the PECOTA card. None of the projections really exactly correspond to the PECOTA cards, but the Huff projection is way off.


That's because the PECOTA cards used the weighted mean, whereas the PFM tries to incorporate the actual playing time of the ball player.


Can you please elaborate? I need a idiots guide to these Pecota cards. So the Pecota cards don't necessarily take into consideration playing time? Nor the Five-year forecast? Hmm, they're pretty high on the Huffster then. I may have gotten in a bit over my head with these PECOTAs.


I am happy to share what I know, and then someone can correct me if I am wrong.

It is my understanding the the PECOTA cards are similar to what you see in the actual book (if you have gotten it in year's past). These are the weighted means, which a fairly conservative when it comes to playing time. For example, the weighted mean for Fielder has him getting 575 PA. That's fairly low for an everday young first baseman. When you look at his numbers through the PFM, which is geared towards fantasy, it shows 600 PA. That's a pretty significant difference.

It's not that the card doesn't take PT into consideration, it's just the the PECOTA card forecasts for PT are conservative. Same goes for the 5 year forecast.

Frankly, if you were to do a fantasy draft off PECOTA projections from the book or the cards, I don't believe you would do very well because all you counting stats would be skewed low. I think, in order to really take advantge of the PECTOA system, you need to either combine it with another forecasting system that predicts playing time (I have heard Fantastics does a good job with this) or you need to adjust PECOTA forecasts on your own for PT.


Random note: I read that PECOTA forecasts are done on Excel and take 4 straight days of CPU time. You think there would be a better program for that.
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Postby jfg » Fri Feb 23, 2007 10:10 pm

I use the player forecast manager exclusively and have been happy. I've learned to trust them because when I don't it comes back to haunt me.

Remember Huff only had 475 at bats last year compared to his normal 575-600. I think the PECOTA numbers will be ok. My league settings have him as the 21st best hitter. In 5X5 he's the 33rd. So obviously your league settings have something to do with it as well. But, he hasn't had less than 575 at bats since 2002, so I think he'll outdo last year and come somewhat close to the PECOTA projections.
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Postby Philliebuster » Sat Feb 24, 2007 9:49 am

jfg wrote:I use the player forecast manager exclusively and have been happy. I've learned to trust them because when I don't it comes back to haunt me.

Remember Huff only had 475 at bats last year compared to his normal 575-600. I think the PECOTA numbers will be ok. My league settings have him as the 21st best hitter. In 5X5 he's the 33rd. So obviously your league settings have something to do with it as well. But, he hasn't had less than 575 at bats since 2002, so I think he'll outdo last year and come somewhat close to the PECOTA projections.


PFM has Huff with over 700 AB's for some reason, this is why his stats are inflated, everyone else looks ok. He could do well in Baltimore, but I don't think he'll get 700 AB's :-] .
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