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Carlos Quentin and Chris B. Young

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Postby Ender » Fri Feb 23, 2007 7:23 pm



http://baseballprospectus.com/

It compares player seasons to a database of thousands of past years. Last year it was the most accurate hitter projection system and the second most accurate pitcher projection system.



See this is why I hate when people post projection system ratings, especially flawed ones. It was the best at projecting OPS compared to a few other sites, not every site. It was the 2nd best at projection ERA which is just about the worst way to compare pitchers. I love PECOTA and use it as a tool for making my ratings and in just about every projection comparison I see it does a good job with rate stats. Its not generally as good with counting stats though.
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Postby Pirates4Life » Fri Feb 23, 2007 11:07 pm

Young's batting average early in his minor league career ws held back in part because he struck out so much.

Considering Chris Young's DRAMATIC drop in strikeouts in 2006, there's reason to believe that he's got the ability pick his batting average up also. The improvement in his strikeout rate didn't have a direct impact on his batting average in 2006, but I suspect that it'll have a positive impact in time.
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Postby mak1277 » Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:11 am

I was looking at some stuff on the 4-letter website and saw a projected D-Backs' line-up where Chris Young was slotted to hit eigth. Is that really his likely spot? I'd definitely drop him in my rankings if he really is going to hit that low.

Any local inside dope on this?
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Postby Omaha Red Sox » Sat Feb 24, 2007 10:38 am

roto wrote:Chris Young (Diamondbacks) Projection

Chris Young, the Diamondbacks' 23 year-old center fielder, is a fantasy stud in the making. He's got only 70 big league at-bats under his belt, so you still have a chance to get in on the ground floor.

Young is often compared to Eric Davis and his 30/30 potential is well known. Here I will attempt to pin down some numbers for his 2007 rookie season.

As far as at-bats, I would expect around 500. Eric Byrnes might play a little CF here or there, but most of the playing time should go to Young.

Most projections have his batting average in the .250s, presumably because of his high strikeout total in 2005. But Young upped his contact rate from 72% to 82% while jumping to Triple A, so there's reason to believe he can hit .270 or .280. I am going with a conservative estimate of .262 for his rookie year, though.

Power-wise, he seems a lock for 20 home runs. He slugged over .530 at both Double A and Triple A in his age 21-22 seasons and his new home ballpark inflates right-handed homers by 16%. I am going with 24 home runs but it wouldn't be shocking to see him flirt with 30 right out of the gate.

Ribbies should be low, maybe the 75 range. He'll probably bat 6th or so, and that'll hold it down. His batting order position will similarly limit his runs to less than 80, I imagine.

Young should flirt with 20 steals. He's been successful at around 80% in recent minor league seasons, and I would expect at least 25 attempts if he gets into 130 games.

So the overall projected line is .262-24-74-76-18. That's worth about $8 in a mixed league, and a $10 performance is certainly reasonable. You should be able to get him for less than that and have good balanced value on your hands. Keeper league players should especially take note - .275-35-100-90-30 could be pretty sweet in a few years. Young will be a top preseason ROY pick for 2007.


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Postby Yoda » Sat Feb 24, 2007 12:46 pm

Omaha Red Sox wrote:
roto wrote:Chris Young (Diamondbacks) Projection

Chris Young, the Diamondbacks' 23 year-old center fielder, is a fantasy stud in the making. He's got only 70 big league at-bats under his belt, so you still have a chance to get in on the ground floor.

Young is often compared to Eric Davis and his 30/30 potential is well known. Here I will attempt to pin down some numbers for his 2007 rookie season.

As far as at-bats, I would expect around 500. Eric Byrnes might play a little CF here or there, but most of the playing time should go to Young.

Most projections have his batting average in the .250s, presumably because of his high strikeout total in 2005. But Young upped his contact rate from 72% to 82% while jumping to Triple A, so there's reason to believe he can hit .270 or .280. I am going with a conservative estimate of .262 for his rookie year, though.

Power-wise, he seems a lock for 20 home runs. He slugged over .530 at both Double A and Triple A in his age 21-22 seasons and his new home ballpark inflates right-handed homers by 16%. I am going with 24 home runs but it wouldn't be shocking to see him flirt with 30 right out of the gate.

Ribbies should be low, maybe the 75 range. He'll probably bat 6th or so, and that'll hold it down. His batting order position will similarly limit his runs to less than 80, I imagine.

Young should flirt with 20 steals. He's been successful at around 80% in recent minor league seasons, and I would expect at least 25 attempts if he gets into 130 games.

So the overall projected line is .262-24-74-76-18. That's worth about $8 in a mixed league, and a $10 performance is certainly reasonable. You should be able to get him for less than that and have good balanced value on your hands. Keeper league players should especially take note - .275-35-100-90-30 could be pretty sweet in a few years. Young will be a top preseason ROY pick for 2007.


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Eric Davis? Perhaps one of my fav players of all time... I doubt Young will ever swipe 80 in a season though.
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