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For whatever its worth..... Alex Gordon

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Postby The Loveable Losers » Sat Feb 24, 2007 1:20 pm

J35J wrote:
ondeckb wrote:I think he's going to be the starting 3B for KC.........with Teahan going to RF. As phenominal as I think he's going to be.....I don't think it's going to be this year.....projecting a .275/70/70 with about 15 steals. This kid is going to be special.......with time.



I also don't think he will "blow up" this year but if he starts the year off in the Bigs and gets 525+ ABs then he should be well above 70/70. I could see something like...

.275-.280
23 HR
85 RBI
80 Runs
10 SB


......somewhere around there. I don't think he will be quite the SB guy he has showed in the minors either.


I think those numbers are probably pretty close. I'd give him credit for another 5 points in average, 3 home runs or so and maybe a couple of steals but at that point it's really nitpicking. The value in those numbers depending if the hype outstrips the talent.
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Postby djacks » Sat Feb 24, 2007 3:05 pm

According to the papers Gordon is the Royals opening day 3B. Today's Wichita Eagle has an article titled "Royals shuffling outfield" that talks about Teahan moving to RF and Reggie Sanders and Emil Brown platooning in LF.
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Postby Esen » Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:06 pm

I think one interesting factor to compare him against wright is that he is playing with Kansas City where Wright started with the Mets.
I would imagine that carries some pros and cons.
Maybe equate to him scoring less runs or rbi's and some other factoes but then in the smae breath he may have less stress put on him.

Im sure somewhere in the calculations being with the Royals means something.

On a side note: I really like what the Royals are doing this year. I think that they are getting close to being 2 or 3 years away to being solid over a 500 team. and thats a good thing.
Im not saying they are the next tigers or anything only that they have hope. BTW Im a die hard Met fan, but still think the Royals will be fun to watch develop.
As for Alex Gordon. I thin he is the real deal. but everyone should know by now that ceircumstance will really carve how fast h e will develop or twindle out.

To use the mets as an example

David Wright had a lot going right for him and did great
Lastings Milledge is a good core player but things around him didn t click and he is on a slower track wityhj a lot he needs to prove.
Jose Reyes had a very rough start but still managed to pan out bifg time
and dinaly Kaz Matsui has a lot of internal talent but was worse then Mud with teh mets.

Take it for what its worth.
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Postby davidmarver » Sun Feb 25, 2007 8:31 pm

JakeTrain72 wrote:Ok so if we give him 25 HRs, 10 SBs, 70 R, 70 RBI with a .280 AVG he doesn't compare to a Ryan Zimmerman? With no Soriano this year and a worse overall offense his RBI will be closer to 80 than 110.

When I look at projections for Gordon vs. Zimmerman:

Zim- .285 with 20HR/80R/80RBI/10SB
Gor- .280 with 25HR/70R/70RBI/10SB

I see pretty close numbers. After the top 5 3B who is next? Zimmerman is probably a better pick to do better this year, but Gordon won't be far behind if Zimmerman does beat him.

You're definitely slighting Zimmerman. Soriano was on for Zimmerman last year, sure, but the majority of Ryan's RBIs came in the 4-5-6 holes, not the 3 hole, while Soriano ended up knocking himself in quite a lot, and being knocked in by the 2-3 guys in that lineup. To be honest, I don't think Zimmerman will have quite the same amount of RBI opportunities this season, but to knock him down 30 and explain it to be losing Soriano is a little ridiculous to me.

For someone as talented and young as Zimmerman, I'm surprised by the lack of growth people expect him to have, as well as the amount of respect he has (or doesn't have) in fantasy circles. He's 22!
I have him at .294, 88, 27, 105, 7.
Zips has him at .303, 86, 21, 95, 7.
Washington Nationals ZIPS Projections
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Sun Feb 25, 2007 10:55 pm

davidmarver wrote:
JakeTrain72 wrote:Ok so if we give him 25 HRs, 10 SBs, 70 R, 70 RBI with a .280 AVG he doesn't compare to a Ryan Zimmerman? With no Soriano this year and a worse overall offense his RBI will be closer to 80 than 110.

When I look at projections for Gordon vs. Zimmerman:

Zim- .285 with 20HR/80R/80RBI/10SB
Gor- .280 with 25HR/70R/70RBI/10SB

I see pretty close numbers. After the top 5 3B who is next? Zimmerman is probably a better pick to do better this year, but Gordon won't be far behind if Zimmerman does beat him.

You're definitely slighting Zimmerman. Soriano was on for Zimmerman last year, sure, but the majority of Ryan's RBIs came in the 4-5-6 holes, not the 3 hole, while Soriano ended up knocking himself in quite a lot, and being knocked in by the 2-3 guys in that lineup. To be honest, I don't think Zimmerman will have quite the same amount of RBI opportunities this season, but to knock him down 30 and explain it to be losing Soriano is a little ridiculous to me.

For someone as talented and young as Zimmerman, I'm surprised by the lack of growth people expect him to have, as well as the amount of respect he has (or doesn't have) in fantasy circles. He's 22!
I have him at .294, 88, 27, 105, 7.
Zips has him at .303, 86, 21, 95, 7.
Washington Nationals ZIPS Projections


I agree a 30 RBI drop is drastic which is why I said CLOSER to 80 than 110. I myself had Zimmerman last year and like him. Soriano at the top is a tough out and that has an impact on pitchers. When Soriano hit a HR, now they have to face the heart of order after giving up a bomb with shaken confidence. I'm not saying Soriano was the one Zim batted in all the time, but Soriano puts pressure on the pitcher when batting, and on the basepaths-including when trotting after a HR-that takes a toll on pitchers. Even if soriano isn't on the field when Zimmerman batted, he was facing pitchers that were affected by Soriano nonetheless. Not this season. Pitchers will be ready for him and they will have more flexibility when pitching to him due to a weaker offense.

He did drive in more runs from the 4-5-6 holes compared to the #3 spot...64 to 46 or 18 more. He also played 28 more games batting in the 4-5-6 spots that gave him 102 more ABs to get those extra 18 RBI. However, batting third, or closer to Soriano, improved his K/BB rate to 2:3 rather than 1:2.5 in the 4-5-6 holes. His best OBP came when he batted third as well.

The fact is Zimmerman has less protection and as the biggest threat in the lineup with Soriano gone, he will get pitched around. Getting pitched around doesn't help your RBI output. Zimmerman is good, but he will have less chances to drive in runs worse pitches to hit when he does and isn't a huge HR hitter in a big park. Expecting a 33% increase in HRs in his second full season (often a year hitters regress) with all the factors I just mentioned seems more unlikely to me than predicting 30 fewer RBI for him.

But that is why we all have our own rankings and opinions on players which is what makes fantasy baseball so fun. The lack of growth I give him in numbers isn't due to him, but the lack of an offense around him.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:20 pm

Yoda wrote:I like Wright better but that's just me. Plus I don't think Gordon will steal as much.


The other question about this is how much better you like Wright, as he will still likely be going in the earliest rounds of most drafts whereas Gordon is likely to be available for a fraction of the 'cost' in terms of where you can draft him, and will put up very similar numbers. That seems like a reasonable plan to me...3B doesn't thrill me this year and, if I can just hold off and get Gordon late for cheap, or even early for cheap in an auction, that's going to help your team...

JakeTrain72 wrote: . I'm not saying Soriano was the one Zim batted in all the time, but Soriano puts pressure on the pitcher when batting, and on the basepaths-including when trotting after a HR-that takes a toll on pitchers.


don't overlook Soriano's amazing manner of posing majestically to admire homeruns... ;-D :-D
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Postby davidmarver » Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:46 pm

JakeTrain72 wrote:He did drive in more runs from the 4-5-6 holes compared to the #3 spot...64 to 46 or 18 more. He also played 28 more games batting in the 4-5-6 spots that gave him 102 more ABs to get those extra 18 RBI. However, batting third, or closer to Soriano, improved his K/BB rate to 2:3 rather than 1:2.5 in the 4-5-6 holes. His best OBP came when he batted third as well.

Right, and that's the point I'm proving. Since he played more in the 4-5-6 hole, most of those RBI were nearly unrelated to Soriano. Soriano was on the bases just 28% of the time last season, meaning that, at the very best, 28% of the time Zimmerman came up, Soriano was on base. Now that's incredibly unrealistic since innings can end before Zimmerman, and also Zim was in the 4-5-6 slots for much of the season making the scenario even less likely.

But regardless, you're proving my point that the bulk of his RBI last season were unrelated to Soriano.

The fact is Zimmerman has less protection and as the biggest threat in the lineup with Soriano gone, he will get pitched around. Getting pitched around doesn't help your RBI output. Zimmerman is good, but he will have less chances to drive in runs worse pitches to hit when he does and isn't a huge HR hitter in a big park. Expecting a 33% increase in HRs in his second full season (often a year hitters regress) with all the factors I just mentioned seems more unlikely to me than predicting 30 fewer RBI for him.

I don't really buy that. Being in the midst of Lopez, Kearns, and Nick Johnson really isn't that poor, in my opinion. And there's a difference between most rookies, and mega prospects who succeed at the MLB level at such an early age. Being in the 3 slot in front of someone like Nick Johnson is just going to increase the quality of pitches Zimmerman sees; if he stays healthy like he did all of '06, he should accumulate the numbers I have projected for him, and I feel none of those are optimistic.
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Postby Yoda » Sun Feb 25, 2007 11:54 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:
Yoda wrote:I like Wright better but that's just me. Plus I don't think Gordon will steal as much.


The other question about this is how much better you like Wright, as he will still likely be going in the earliest rounds of most drafts whereas Gordon is likely to be available for a fraction of the 'cost' in terms of where you can draft him, and will put up very similar numbers. That seems like a reasonable plan to me...3B doesn't thrill me this year and, if I can just hold off and get Gordon late for cheap, or even early for cheap in an auction, that's going to help your team...


Well the other poster was comparing him to Wright in terms of career so I said I would take Wright.
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Postby Yoda » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:00 am

JakeTrain72 wrote:Ok so if we give him 25 HRs, 10 SBs, 70 R, 70 RBI with a .280 AVG he doesn't compare to a Ryan Zimmerman? With no Soriano this year and a worse overall offense his RBI will be closer to 80 than 110.

When I look at projections for Gordon vs. Zimmerman:

Zim- .285 with 20HR/80R/80RBI/10SB
Gor- .280 with 25HR/70R/70RBI/10SB

I see pretty close numbers. After the top 5 3B who is next? Zimmerman is probably a better pick to do better this year, but Gordon won't be far behind if Zimmerman does beat him.


You are not giving Zimmerman enough credit here. He can hit and despite only playing 67G in the minors, he pounded the ball in 06 as a 21 yo in a tough pitchers park. Power is usually the last thing to develop and he already hit 47 2B and 20 HR along with a .471 SLG. Gordon is older and he probably will hit for more power but Zimmerman is damn good.
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:19 pm

davidmarver wrote:
JakeTrain72 wrote:He did drive in more runs from the 4-5-6 holes compared to the #3 spot...64 to 46 or 18 more. He also played 28 more games batting in the 4-5-6 spots that gave him 102 more ABs to get those extra 18 RBI. However, batting third, or closer to Soriano, improved his K/BB rate to 2:3 rather than 1:2.5 in the 4-5-6 holes. His best OBP came when he batted third as well.

Right, and that's the point I'm proving. Since he played more in the 4-5-6 hole, most of those RBI were nearly unrelated to Soriano. Soriano was on the bases just 28% of the time last season, meaning that, at the very best, 28% of the time Zimmerman came up, Soriano was on base. Now that's incredibly unrealistic since innings can end before Zimmerman, and also Zim was in the 4-5-6 slots for much of the season making the scenario even less likely.

But regardless, you're proving my point that the bulk of his RBI last season were unrelated to Soriano.

The fact is Zimmerman has less protection and as the biggest threat in the lineup with Soriano gone, he will get pitched around. Getting pitched around doesn't help your RBI output. Zimmerman is good, but he will have less chances to drive in runs worse pitches to hit when he does and isn't a huge HR hitter in a big park. Expecting a 33% increase in HRs in his second full season (often a year hitters regress) with all the factors I just mentioned seems more unlikely to me than predicting 30 fewer RBI for him.

I don't really buy that. Being in the midst of Lopez, Kearns, and Nick Johnson really isn't that poor, in my opinion. And there's a difference between most rookies, and mega prospects who succeed at the MLB level at such an early age. Being in the 3 slot in front of someone like Nick Johnson is just going to increase the quality of pitches Zimmerman sees; if he stays healthy like he did all of '06, he should accumulate the numbers I have projected for him, and I feel none of those are optimistic.


Your point that more RBI came when he was not batting third doesn't dispell a pitcher being affected by having to face Soriano in a lineup. Having Soriano in your lineup is relevant to every hitter in the lineup. The point I am making is that it doesn't matter if it was Soriano on base that Zim hit in. The guys that were on base when Zim was batting (those who were batting 3-4) were more able to get on due to Soriano's presence in that lineup, much the same way that Zim's numbers were better batting third. Nick Johnson's OBP was 20 points higher in 06 than 05. Zim's AB/RBI was virtually the same no matter where he batted, add in 100 ABs and you get the 18 differential. So I'm not sure how you can say he is going to do well because he hit more RBI batting late. He hit RBI at the same clip.

Where we disagree is how having Kearns and Lopez in the lineup is different than having Vidro and Soriano.

Kearns, Lopez, Johnson are not scrubs, but they are far from being 40/40 guys. I'm not an MLB pitcher but if given the choice of whom to face between Soriano, Kearns, Lopez, Johnson and Zimmerman I gotta think Soriano and Zimmerman are last on the list. He has less protection in my opinion.

Since you don't agree with me on this point, so I don't expect you to then agree with my reasoning.

Bringing it back to Gordon, I would put my stock in Zimmerman before Gordon this season. But I don't think Gordon is that much worse an option at 3b after the top 5 are off the board. My post wasn't aimed at saying Gordon is better than Zimmerman this season. But that I think Gordon can give you similar numbers from the 3b position taken later in drafts.
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