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Random Selection for later picks.

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Postby dabum1 » Thu Feb 22, 2007 4:43 pm

I think it would make more sense to take the names out of the equation.

By not knowing a player's name and only looking at their stats...you could eliminate any predisposition (you just like their name, team, fashion sense) you may have towards a certain player.

But I think that would also have its own problems.

1. You may be able to recognize players by looking at stats if you know them well enough

2. You would be losing any info, inside info, you may have on a player because it wouldn't be included in the stats for that player


I don't think it makes much sense, in terms of effectively drafting, to pick players randomly
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Postby GrubNasty » Thu Feb 22, 2007 5:01 pm

dabum1 wrote:I think it would make more sense to take the names out of the equation.

By not knowing a player's name and only looking at their stats...you could eliminate any predisposition (you just like their name, team, fashion sense) you may have towards a certain player.

But I think that would also have its own problems.

1. You may be able to recognize players by looking at stats if you know them well enough

2. You would be losing any info, inside info, you may have on a player because it wouldn't be included in the stats for that player


I don't think it makes much sense, in terms of effectively drafting, to pick players randomly



Thats kinda where i was going in my thinking. Lets say its the end of the draft. I look things over and Yikes I think my team might be light on the strikeouts. So i look over who is left. Lets say this is the last round, and theres not a lot left. I find about 10 pitchers who i have projected to throw between 80-85 K's. I just want to then randomly select one, because otherwise im just going to end up with the one i read about last on some forum. Which i dont really think is making the best pick. Where we differ is that I think being random might have better results in this situation.
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Postby BritSox » Thu Feb 22, 2007 5:03 pm

Why is the fact that you randomly happened to read about one rather than another on a forum a worse way of picking than some other method of random selection?
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Postby Subversive » Thu Feb 22, 2007 5:05 pm

BritSox wrote:Why is the fact that you randomly happened to read about one rather than another on a forum a worse way of picking than some other method of random selection?


I would rather draft a player that I have a gut feeling about than leave it all up to stats. You have to trust your instincts when it comes to the end game.
Bah, humbug.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 22, 2007 5:43 pm

I'd be interested in seeing how a totally random draft would do. In other words, suppose you take a previous mock draft or ranking, and for each round just randomly selected a player. I wonder how that team would do versus other teams, just out of curiousity.
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Postby teddy ballgame » Thu Feb 22, 2007 5:53 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd be interested in seeing how a totally random draft would do. In other words, suppose you take a previous mock draft or ranking, and for each round just randomly selected a player. I wonder how that team would do versus other teams, just out of curiousity.

Considering the pool of players that could get selected, I'm guessing not very well.
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Postby GrubNasty » Thu Feb 22, 2007 6:15 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd be interested in seeing how a totally random draft would do. In other words, suppose you take a previous mock draft or ranking, and for each round just randomly selected a player. I wonder how that team would do versus other teams, just out of curiousity.



I agree it would be interesting. I think if you had your tiers set up solid you wouldnt draft all that bad of a team. For instance in the first round are any of the top 14 players that bad? Eh, not really. Would a random pick of the top 14 players you have ranked burn you? Id be wiling to bet not much, it wouldnt be all that fun to draft that way though.

Another point on why i wanted to randomly assign my players in the last two rounds of the draft. I always have a list of sleeper picks. Here are some of the guys i had down last year. It was a shallow 10 man league.

McCann
Fossum
D-Cab
Liriano
Bush
kinsler
vargas


I took Fossum and D-Cab, because i felt i needed pitching. I based it of of the hype of sleeper articles. I thought a coach would of turned around d-cab. I cant recall why i was high on fossum :-) In other words i took a bunch of articles and let my gut feel me through them. Random wouldnt of been a bad option *shrug*
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Postby dabum1 » Thu Feb 22, 2007 8:04 pm

If the information you are applying to a player is credible, then you should not choose randomly. Picking a player randomly, based on stats alone, will eliminate any knowledge you have on the profile of that player. Sometimes that stuff you'd be eliminating would be bad info, but sometimes it could be somewhat credible.

If you have a list of 10 pitchers, who you project to be exactly the same in terms of their numbers, and you have no "credible" inside knowledge on any of those players (eg. injury history, yada yada), then I would say picking randomly would be a fine choice. If you had not randomly picked a player from that selection, you may have otherwise gone with an invalid, unsubstantiable thought/bias. Without picking randomly from these 10 statistically identical pitchers, you will more than likely, I believe, make your decision based on something ridiculus, like name, birth place, astrological sign, etc.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:28 pm

teddy ballgame wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd be interested in seeing how a totally random draft would do. In other words, suppose you take a previous mock draft or ranking, and for each round just randomly selected a player. I wonder how that team would do versus other teams, just out of curiousity.

Considering the pool of players that could get selected, I'm guessing not very well.


If you limit yourself to those from say a compilation of expert mock drafts, you might have a list of 300 players.

I'm sure the team wouldn't be that good,but I wonder how many managers would lose to it. Basically, it would be a "replacement level" team,and any manager who knows anything should beat it.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:33 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
teddy ballgame wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I'd be interested in seeing how a totally random draft would do. In other words, suppose you take a previous mock draft or ranking, and for each round just randomly selected a player. I wonder how that team would do versus other teams, just out of curiousity.

Considering the pool of players that could get selected, I'm guessing not very well.


If you limit yourself to those from say a compilation of expert mock drafts, you might have a list of 300 players.

I'm sure the team wouldn't be that good,but I wonder how many managers would lose to it. Basically, it would be a "replacement level" team,and any manager who knows anything should beat it.


I was going to do it but I noticed a big flaw after about 5 rounds. It doesn't take positions into account. I took the cafe's ranking draft. And I end up drafting 5 pitcher in the first 6 round by doing random draft.
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