glcmustliveon wrote:I wouldnt exactly describe a 19 Year old posting a 3.84 PERA as "shaky" . He ran into some bad luck with his BABIP which skewed his actual results a bit, making him a pretty good bargain come draft time.
I actually live in the NW and see the M's games. Felix did not run across much bad luck. He was a Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde type of a pitcher last year. Either he was really, really on or couldn't hit his spots with his pitches and got hit. Felix did come into camp in terrific shape this spring and most likely will have a solid year, but I do not see how a 2nd year pitcher barely out of his teens is a "safer" pick over someone who has had all star hitters in awe in the past. Everything leans to Dice-K being the more stable pick:
Injury risk - Young arm of Felix = higher risk. Advantage Dice-K
Experience - Dice-K proven to get hitters out more consistently. Advantage Dice-K
Run Support - Bosox vs. M's. One team playing for WS, other is fielding a Little League all star team. Advantage Dice-K.
So where is it that Felix is a safer pick? Give me something concrete here other than a 3.84 ERA (actual ERA for Felix last year was 4.52) or some lame BABIP stat that doesn't reflect his level of "luck". Here's some good #s for you to crunch to help your valuation. 23 HR's in 31 starts or .262 BAA. Those aren't numbers reflecting bad luck.