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Batter Ratings Formula - Rip me apart!!!!

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Batter Ratings Formula - Rip me apart!!!!

Postby redsoxsucker » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:01 pm

I need some brain power assistance!

I'm trying to create a rating formula that will be comprehensive, while somewhat unique. I just took a crack at one and I've likely stepped over myself or added value to a category I shouldn't have. The formula is based rewarding 500 at bats and on the following categories:

Batting Ave
HR (added 1.5 value)
RBI
R
SB(added 1.5 value)
Extra Base Hits (added 1.5 value)
OPS
BB/K
Total Bases
Total Plate Appearances
Runs Created (per ESPN definition)

I only used 2006 stats and would run this on 3-year averages if I can tweak it to be more advantageous

Here are the somewhat confusing top 50 player results. when I see Nick Johnson and Scott Hattenbuerg so high up, wiht Jose Reyes so far down, I think there's at least one problem...


PLAYER
Albert Pujols
David Ortiz
Garrett Atkins
Ryan Howard
Brian Giles
Lance Berkman
Joe Mauer
Todd Helton
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Lee
Travis Hafner
Nick Johnson
Vladimir Guerrero
Grady Sizemore
Derek Jeter
Jimmy Rollins
Manny Ramirez
Scott Hatteberg
Bobby Abreu
Alfonso Soriano
Chase Utley
Aramis Ramirez
Mark Teixeira
Jose Reyes
Jim Thome
Jason Giambi
Matt Holliday
Jason Bay
Luis Gonzalez
Alex Rodriguez
Nomar Garciaparra
Justin Morneau
Rafael Furcal
Vernon Wells
Carlos Guillen
Jermaine Dye
Andruw Jones
Johnny Damon
Miguel Tejada
David Wright
Raul Ibanez
Ichiro Suzuki
Victor Martinez
Paul Konerko
Frank Thomas
Gary Matthews Jr.
Juan Pierre
A-Rod is a little B*tch
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Postby chadlincoln » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:13 pm

I quit reading at Brian Giles #5. :-t
7/26 - Cafe goes down:

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Postby jfg » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:31 pm

Is that your league setup? If you are just trying to come up with a comprehensive rankings using those categories you're focusing way too much on how much a person gets on base and how many bases they get. Plus, BB/K has no bearing in almost any league. If you take out the BB/K and the extra base hits you might come up with a little better list.

If that's your league setup though, that's probably a pretty good list. 2-3 years ago Brian Giles would have probably been #1. I don't see how this list can really help anybody else though.
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Postby redsoxsucker » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:52 pm

That makes sense, thanks....I'll change a couple line items.

I can't blame you for stopping at Brian Giles, though some scrutiny would be appreciated as well.
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Postby Tavish » Wed Feb 21, 2007 8:55 pm

What are you trying to measure exactly?
Image

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Postby redsoxsucker » Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:12 pm

How do you guys feel about using OPS instead of BA for rankings despite our league being a normal 5X5?

Also, if I strip this down to:

HR (weighted by 1.5)
R
RBI
OPS
2b
3b
SB (weighted by perhaps as high as 2 or 3?)

I come out with this on my first 50, which seems decent until I hit Ibanez...thoughts???

Albert Pujols
Ryan Howard
David Ortiz
Carlos Beltran
Alfonso Soriano
Travis Hafner
Lance Berkman
Matt Holliday
Jermaine Dye
Miguel Cabrera
Jose Reyes
Garrett Atkins
Grady Sizemore
Jim Thome
Chase Utley
Alex Rodriguez
Carlos Lee
Derek Jeter
David Wright
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Justin Morneau
Andruw Jones
Jason Bay
Jimmy Rollins
Hanley Ramirez
Jason Giambi
Vernon Wells
Bobby Abreu
Aramis Ramirez
Paul Konerko
Carl Crawford
Carlos Guillen
Raul Ibanez
Mark Teixeira
Nick Johnson
Bill Hall
Carlos Delgado
Johnny Damon
Michael Cuddyer
Troy Glaus
Scott Rolen
Adam LaRoche
Frank Thomas
Miguel Tejada
Rafael Furcal
Adam Dunn
A-Rod is a little B*tch
[img]C:\Personal\Pictures\Sox%20Game%20and%20Jenn\cubssox%20marquee.jpg[/img]
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Postby redsoxsucker » Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:19 pm

I'm simply trying to find some gems which might pop out at me by using a formula which deviates from a very basic one. I might be completely over thinking it (which is unlikely in rotisserie baseball). I'm just looking for some kind of edge and looking for a golden ratio of sorts to get there...

If I need to choose between vernon wells, matt holiday, carlos lee and Ichiro for example, I see 15 different people saying 15 different things but I don't know what they base it off of...
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:20 pm

if you are saying that you assume 500 ABs for everyone, thats a huge problem by itself. it ruins any value you put on BA b/c players with the same BA but different ABs are not equal. same for any stat based on PA or AB.

and a general comment that i've made before in similar threads, this system lokos like its set up to confirm beliefs rather than provide answers. by that i mean that by looking at the result and asking yourself if it looks right, why bother doing it at all when you can just whip up a list of what you think lokos right. if you don't have a specific, objectively measurable reason for each component, then i'm not sure what good it does you.
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Postby redsoxsucker » Wed Feb 21, 2007 9:43 pm

those are very solid points and I would ask you two things regarding them

- How can you ostensibly give creedence to players with greater plate appearaqnces/ABs, while also leveling the BA or OPS playing field?

- As far as your other point, it seems difficult to uncover anomalies if any results I yield don't somehwat parallel other rating systems. I'm unsure where the discovering begins and the confirming ends?
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Postby RugbyD » Wed Feb 21, 2007 10:09 pm

redsoxsucker wrote:those are very solid points and I would ask you two things regarding them

- How can you ostensibly give creedence to players with greater plate appearaqnces/ABs, while also leveling the BA or OPS playing field?

first step is to project AB and PA for each player. whatever value you assign to a player based on his raw BA, mulitply it by (playerAB/avgAB), which will give it the appropriate weighting. avgAB is the average projected ABs of whatever player group you are comparing.

OPS is trickier b/c it relies on PA and AB. what i do is take the modified value for OBP and SLG that i got using the above process and plug into this: (playerAB/(playerAB+playerPA))*playerOBPscore + (playerPA/(playerAB+playerPA))*playerSLGscore

- As far as your other point, it seems difficult to uncover anomalies if any results I yield don't somehwat parallel other rating systems. I'm unsure where the discovering begins and the confirming ends?

search for posts made by me using keywords like "projections" "rankings" standard deviation" "stdev"
you'll find detailed explanations of what i do and plenty of otehr people as well whose other posts you can search for. you'll find lots of helpful stuff.
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