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My catcher draft strategy, is it sound?

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My catcher draft strategy, is it sound?

Postby johnsamo » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:06 pm

Thinking of going with a dual catcher catcher strategy, picking up Jason Kendall and Benjie Molina with my last two picks. The idea being, spot starting to get as many vs. lefty ABs as I can. These guys #s vs. lefties are way above their total average. It takes more day-to-day matchup watching than just having one guy, but they'll be dirt cheap, and I figure the lefty affect makes it worth it.

Vs. Lefites last year
Molina 358 avg. .998 ops
Kendal 331 avg. .832 ops
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Postby LukeW9027 » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:13 pm

If this is a daily lineup league, which I assume it is, this seems like a good strategy to me. ;-D
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Postby jlm53089 » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:17 pm

lucky you.
you are in a league where you only start one catcher
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Postby JoshExley » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:19 pm

I was beginning to like it, but why would you draft two catchers that are great against lefties? Shouldn't you draft 1 catcher great against lefties and 1 great against righties? Wouldn't that maximize your output???

Am I missing something?
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Postby j24jags » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:26 pm

Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.
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Postby gostanford07 » Tue Feb 20, 2007 11:30 pm

j24jags wrote:Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.


Yeah, but his point is that that percentage is higher than if he only has one catcher...

Like others said, this only works if you have the bench room. No reason to waste a spot on another catcher if you have say 4 bench spots. Better to have a super-sub utility type, especially in H2H
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:03 am

j24jags wrote:Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.


Actually, it's a horrible idea. Last year, teams ranged between 40 and 60 games versus a lefty starter, or roughly about 30 percent of their games. For these two catchers, there are 4 possibilities:

Both against lefties. That happens 30% x 30% or .3 x .3 =.09 or 9 percent of the time.
Kendall against lefty, Bengie against righty. That happens 30% x 70% or .3 x .7 = 21% of the time.
Bengie against lefty, Kendall against righty. Same as it above, it happens 21% of the time.
Both against righty. This happens .7 x .7 or 49% of the time.

So, roughly half the time, you are going to be stuck using one of these guys facing a righty, not a lefty. And that underestimates it, because you also have to count the pitching switches that will further reduce their time versus lefties.

Bad idea.
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Postby KPucks » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:29 am

j24jags wrote:Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.


I think you might need a few more math classes. If you assume each team on average has two lefties, than at least one of the two catchers will face a lefty (.4)(.4)+2(.4)(.6) = 64% of the time.
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Postby slomo007 » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:41 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
j24jags wrote:Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.


Actually, it's a horrible idea. Last year, teams ranged between 40 and 60 games versus a lefty starter, or roughly about 30 percent of their games. For these two catchers, there are 4 possibilities:

Both against lefties. That happens 30% x 30% or .3 x .3 =.09 or 9 percent of the time.
Kendall against lefty, Bengie against righty. That happens 30% x 70% or .3 x .7 = 21% of the time.
Bengie against lefty, Kendall against righty. Same as it above, it happens 21% of the time.
Both against righty. This happens .7 x .7 or 49% of the time.

So, roughly half the time, you are going to be stuck using one of these guys facing a righty, not a lefty. And that underestimates it, because you also have to count the pitching switches that will further reduce their time versus lefties.

Bad idea.


GTWMA analyzed it perfectly. This is a bad idea.
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Postby j24jags » Wed Feb 21, 2007 12:54 am

KPucks wrote:
j24jags wrote:Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.


I think you might need a few more math classes. If you assume each team on average has two lefties, than at least one of the two catchers will face a lefty (.4)(.4)+2(.4)(.6) = 64% of the time.

Trust me I can do that math, I'm sorry if I was just very lazy there, that's not the point though, the point is that the strategy will backfire regularly.
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