j24jags wrote:Let's pick a #, if each rotation has 40% lefties, then the chances that one of the two faces a lefty is 80%, but you are still stuck on 20% of days with a catcher who faces a righty.
Actually, it's a horrible idea. Last year, teams ranged between 40 and 60 games versus a lefty starter, or roughly about 30 percent of their games. For these two catchers, there are 4 possibilities:
Both against lefties. That happens 30% x 30% or .3 x .3 =.09 or 9 percent of the time.
Kendall against lefty, Bengie against righty. That happens 30% x 70% or .3 x .7 = 21% of the time.
Bengie against lefty, Kendall against righty. Same as it above, it happens 21% of the time.
Both against righty. This happens .7 x .7 or 49% of the time.
So, roughly half the time, you are going to be stuck using one of these guys facing a righty, not a lefty. And that underestimates it, because you also have to count the pitching switches that will further reduce their time versus lefties.