Philliebuster wrote:I came up with this thought on a Mets forum, however do not claim to be a saber-nerd, and was wondering if it is accurate, or perhaps I don't understand BABIP as well as I should...can I assume the following, or am I missing something?
I was looking at Carlos's stats for fantasy baseball purposes, and his abnormally low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is suprising (when compared to the other top players in the game). A consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by baseball players, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to regress in the following season, and those that are low, can be expected to do better.
Last season his BABIP was .268. The league average is approximately .290-.300. This means that if you have a significantly higher than the average, they say you may be getting a bit lucky, and if you are significantly lower BABIP...268, this means you are unlucky as far as hits falling in play.
Being that carlos has a great eye, and makes good contact, this stat indicates to me that Carlos should be able to hit for a better average in 07. Amazingly he hit .275 with a .268 BABIP in 2006. His previous seasons BABIP were .296, .265, .324, .307 for 2005 to 2002, respectively. Strangely his .296 BABIP in 06 coupled with a .266 AVG, which is quite odd, and not the norm. But previous seasons where his BABIP were above .300, he was able to bring his average above .300 (2001 and 2003). This indicates possible good things to come in the future? One can only hope...luck be his lady and his BABIP rises.
A .268 BABIP and a .275 overall BA? How is this possible? My brain must not be processing completely or I'm completely overlooking something. If he has a .268 BA in all the at-bats that he put the ball in play how did he raise his average to .275 without putting another ball in play? Do SAC's count as AB's when calculating BABIP?