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Beltrans BABIP

Postby Philliebuster » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:16 pm

I came up with this thought on a Mets forum, however do not claim to be a saber-nerd, and was wondering if it is accurate, or perhaps I don't understand BABIP as well as I should...can I assume the following, or am I missing something?

I was looking at Carlos's stats for fantasy baseball purposes, and his abnormally low batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is suprising (when compared to the other top players in the game). A consistently high or low BABIP is hard to maintain. Therefore, BABIP can be used to spot fluky seasons by baseball players, as those whose BABIPs are extremely high can often be expected to regress in the following season, and those that are low, can be expected to do better.

Last season his BABIP was .268. The league average is approximately .290-.300. This means that if you have a significantly higher than the average, they say you may be getting a bit lucky, and if you are significantly lower BABIP...268, this means you are unlucky as far as hits falling in play.

Being that carlos has a great eye, and makes good contact, this stat indicates to me that Carlos should be able to hit for a better average in 07. Amazingly he hit .275 with a .268 BABIP in 2006. His previous seasons BABIP were .296, .265, .324, .307 for 2005 to 2002, respectively. Strangely his .296 BABIP in 06 coupled with a .266 AVG, which is quite odd, and not the norm. But previous seasons where his BABIP were above .300, he was able to bring his average above .300 (2001 and 2003). This indicates possible good things to come in the future? One can only hope...luck be his lady and his BABIP rises.
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Postby LukeW9027 » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:25 pm

I think you make a very good point here and I personally expect a big rise in BA for Beltran this season.
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:31 pm

It seems like his BABIP dropped because he hit more fly balls. His GB % last year was 36.5%. The three previous years it was 43.8%, 38.8%, and 38%. A fast guy like Beltran could slap hits and be happy with that. Now I believe he is going for more power. Look at his HR in the last 4 years: 41, 16, 38, 26.

Basically, this means that Beltran tried to hit more HRs this last year. You can actually see this in HR per Flyballs, which jumped to his highest level ever. If you want his BABIP to go back up, then expect a drop in HR.

Here is a good look at his stats from last year. And here is a look at some projections for next year. His BA is not going to rise much, if at all.

(edited to fix HR total)
Last edited by Steve-o on Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:35 pm

Steve-o wrote:It seems like his BABIP dropped because he hit more fly balls. His GB % last year was 36.5%. The three previous years it was 43.8%, 38.8%, and 38%. Now look at his HR in the last 4 years: 41, 16, 23, 15.

Basically, this means that Beltran tried to hit more HRs this last year. If you want his BABIP to go back up, then expect a drop in HR.

Here is a good look at his stats from last year.


Beltran's HRs over the last 4 years are actually 41, 16, 38, 26

You took his 2004 totals from KC and HOU and forgot to add them, counting them as 2 separate years.
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Postby rockiesfan06 » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:37 pm

Hitters can influence their BABIP based on how good of a hitter they are. Some players, like Miguel Cabrera, are able to maintain a consistently high BABIP because they consistently make good contact and line the ball all over the yard. Other hitters don't make as consistent of "good" contact and therefore the balls they do put into play don't fall for hits as often. Beltran could be this type of player. 2006 was the second time in three seasons that his BABIP had been under .270, which may mean that Beltran doesn't fare well on balls in play. Also, his line drive percentage dropped to a paltry 16.8% in '06, which is another piece of evidence that the balls he was putting into play were not hit well.
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Postby RynMan » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:38 pm

Steve-o wrote:Now look at his HR in the last 4 years: 41, 16, 23, 15.


Just to clarify Steve, in 2004 he hit 38 (23+15) with 2 different teams. I think you know this, but just pointing it out in case anyone looked at the totals there and thought they were full seasons.
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Postby bigh0rt » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:40 pm

RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:Now look at his HR in the last 4 years: 41, 16, 23, 15.


Just to clarify Steve, in 2004 he hit 38 (23+15) with 2 different teams. I think you know this, but just pointing it out in case anyone looked at the totals there and thought they were full seasons.


Is there an echo in here? O:-)
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:44 pm

RynMan wrote:
Steve-o wrote:Now look at his HR in the last 4 years: 41, 16, 23, 15.


Just to clarify Steve, in 2004 he hit 38 (23+15) with 2 different teams. I think you know this, but just pointing it out in case anyone looked at the totals there and thought they were full seasons.


Yeah. I should've caught that. Oops. My point still stands though. Don't expet Beltran's BA to jump into the 290-300 range.
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Postby Philliebuster » Mon Feb 19, 2007 9:51 pm

Interesting, ok, what is wrong with this comparison then...

GB%/LD%/FB%/BABIP/AVG
2006 Stats

Sizemore
33.3/19.8/46.9/.326/.290

Beltran
36.5/16.8/46.6/.263/.275

Sizemore's #'s are very similar with a .326 BABIP, high flyballs, and low line drives...he just makes better contact, or is a bit luckier?

Steve-o wrote:It seems like his BABIP dropped because he hit more fly balls. His GB % last year was 36.5%. The three previous years it was 43.8%, 38.8%, and 38%. A fast guy like Beltran could slap hits and be happy with that. Now I believe he is going for more power. Look at his HR in the last 4 years: 41, 16, 38, 26.

Basically, this means that Beltran tried to hit more HRs this last year. You can actually see this in HR per Flyballs, which jumped to his highest level ever. If you want his BABIP to go back up, then expect a drop in HR.

Here is a good look at his stats from last year. And here is a look at some projections for next year. His BA is not going to rise much, if at all.

(edited to fix HR total)
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Postby Steve-o » Mon Feb 19, 2007 10:10 pm

Philliebuster wrote:Interesting, ok, what is wrong with this comparison then...

GB%/LD%/FB%/BABIP/AVG
2006 Stats

Sizemore
33.3/19.8/46.9/.326/.290

Beltran
36.5/16.8/46.6/.263/.275

Sizemore's #'s are very similar with a .326 BABIP, high flyballs, and low line drives...he just makes better contact, or is a bit luckier?


You can't ignore that increase in the LD rate. I would say that accounts for most of the difference in average. Probably makes better contact, but not quite sure about that.
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