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Best Website for Projections??

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Best Website for Projections??

Postby bond street » Sun Feb 18, 2007 11:55 pm

There may be a list out there already, but I didn't see one while searching. If so, send me the link. If not....

Which website out there have you found is the best at projecting stats?
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Postby MadDog36 » Mon Feb 19, 2007 2:03 am

if cheat sheets you are after hit me with a PM and I'll give em to ya.
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Postby dabum1 » Mon Feb 19, 2007 5:34 am

http://www.fangraphs.com

has 4 projections systems (ZiPS, Bill James, Marcel, CHONE) right at your finger tips. I'm not sure about the Bill James projections, but the other three seem to be just as good as whatever else.
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Postby bond street » Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:23 pm

anything else out there?

Where can I find Bill James Handbook projections?
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Postby yankee_cafe » Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:46 pm

rototimes .... been using their projections for a few years with great success.
Can we build it?
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Postby Wyatt » Mon Feb 19, 2007 8:49 pm

There's also Rotochamps , Sports Fanactics , & Baseballdocs besides those already named. Gives you about 7 sets of projections to look at. MLB I think has some also
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Postby j24jags » Mon Feb 19, 2007 11:07 pm

yankee_cafe wrote:rototimes .... been using their projections for a few years with great success.

;-D ;-D
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:39 am

Fantistics seems to do the best job of projecting playtime. Pecota and Forecaster do the best at rate stats in my opinion. Really depends on how much of the work you want to do yourself.

For free rankings I think http://thundermatt.blogspot.com/2007/02 ... lah-1.html was one of the better listings, though its only position by position.
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Postby Wharton93 » Tue Feb 20, 2007 1:21 am

The best site to use is...any 1 of them. Chone did an analysis and found the correlation coeffecient R below:


For hitters:
PECOTA .736
Shandler .702
James .685
ZIPs .684
Chone .677
Marcel .664

For pitchers:
.459 ZIPs
.451 PECOTA
.445 Baseball Info Solutions
.442 Marcel
.423 Shandler

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/20 ... stuff.html

Tangotiger determined that the max correlation was .73
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... /#comments

(However, Pecota did beat it with a .736 but Chone chalks that up to random variation)

Keep in mind that "marcel" is just a simple regression to the mean...not really a forecast per se, just a 'dumb monkey's forecast' and it did pretty well against "the experts."

You learn a few things:
1) nobody is perfect
2) they ain't all that different from each other
3) it's easier to project hitters than pitchers (ergo, pitchers are more risky)
4) they are all pretty good at hitters and all pretty bad at pitchers

Whoever was in 1st place last year is likely to be bumped by somebody else this year. You'd need a lot of years of studies to figure out who "the best" is.

As Ender said, it depends on how much you work you want to do. Pick a system, any one, and then pay attention for the next 6 weeks and do research--tweak where needed.
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Postby chadlincoln » Tue Feb 20, 2007 12:21 pm

dabum1 wrote:http://www.fangraphs.com

has 4 projections systems (ZiPS, Bill James, Marcel, CHONE) right at your finger tips. I'm not sure about the Bill James projections, but the other three seem to be just as good as whatever else.
;-D ;-D
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