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Will Beltran flop in comparison to how we think he will do?

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Will Beltran flop in comparison to how we think he will do?

Postby joshheines » Sun Nov 09, 2003 12:34 am

My gut and my heart say no, but my head and my eyes say yes.

In 2003, Beltran had 102 runs, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 41 SB, .307 AVG = Roto God.

However, he only had 14 doubles, while his triples remained consistent with his career numbers. That's 14 doubles. 50 total extra-base hits. That's compared with 80 extra-base hits in 2002. Some will look at the fact that he missed 20 games in the beginning of the season, but that would only add, at most, another 10 extra-base hits if he continued on his pace and did not actually miss those games.

I just wouldn't be surprised if his power dropped a bit in 2004. He'll still be a stud, but can he be a rotogod? Like I said, my head and eyes say no.
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Postby Madison » Sun Nov 09, 2003 1:41 am

I'm not concerned about Beltran in the least next year. He will be gold again.

Tell you what, I'll take him off your hands. :-) Hmm......who would you like? :-D
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Postby HOOTIE » Sun Nov 09, 2003 2:17 am

He set career highs in average, oba, slugging %, sb, and walks last year. He will be 27, just entering peak. I wouldn't be concerned over a drop in doubles. His hr and triple rate were higher then 02. My only concern for Carlos is if he gets traded.
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Postby Brokentusks9 » Sun Nov 09, 2003 5:39 am

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD BAT HIM IN THE FIFTH SPOT!!!

I'm not worried, and hopefully I'll be lucky enough to draft him next year. ;-D
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Postby joshheines » Sun Nov 09, 2003 9:40 am

HOOTIE wrote:He set career highs in average, oba, slugging %, sb, and walks last year. He will be 27, just entering peak. I wouldn't be concerned over a drop in doubles. His hr and triple rate were higher then 02. My only concern for Carlos is if he gets traded.


He set career high in AVG and nearly every other stat is relevant: OBP, SLG, OPS. But his power numbers, i.e., isolated power (SLG - AVG) was down. In 2003, his isolated power was .215. In 2002, .228. In 2001, .208.

Perhaps the numbers are so close as to be negligent, but I just don't think a power spike at the magical age of 27 is coming.
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Postby DK » Sun Nov 09, 2003 10:06 am

joshheines wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:He set career highs in average, oba, slugging %, sb, and walks last year. He will be 27, just entering peak. I wouldn't be concerned over a drop in doubles. His hr and triple rate were higher then 02. My only concern for Carlos is if he gets traded.


He set career high in AVG and nearly every other stat is relevant: OBP, SLG, OPS. But his power numbers, i.e., isolated power (SLG - AVG) was down. In 2003, his isolated power was .215. In 2002, .228. In 2001, .208.

Perhaps the numbers are so close as to be negligent, but I just don't think a power spike at the magical age of 27 is coming.


A change that little in isolated power doesn't worry me at all.

Pre-AS- .173
Post-AS-.266

Before the break he was still nursing that injury of sorts. He heated up in the second half. Don't be too worried.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Nov 10, 2003 10:40 am

HOOTIE wrote:My only concern for Carlos is if he gets traded.

Hootie shows his smarts again. :-) KC is a big time hitters park. And depending on the manager his steals could decrease too. Watch where he goes.
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Postby joshheines » Mon Nov 10, 2003 11:56 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:My only concern for Carlos is if he gets traded.

Hootie shows his smarts again. :-) KC is a big time hitters park. And depending on the manager his steals could decrease too. Watch where he goes.


Kaufman field actually hasn't played an enormous part of Beltran's career. His average IS close to .040 points better at home, but he appears to have the same power numbers across the board. In the end it may prevent Beltran from hitting .300, but if he hits .285 with 30/30/100/100 who cares?
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:07 pm

joshheines wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:My only concern for Carlos is if he gets traded.

Hootie shows his smarts again. :-) KC is a big time hitters park. And depending on the manager his steals could decrease too. Watch where he goes.


Kaufman field actually hasn't played an enormous part of Beltran's career. His average IS close to .040 points better at home, but he appears to have the same power numbers across the board. In the end it may prevent Beltran from hitting .300, but if he hits .285 with 30/30/100/100 who cares?


Look Beltran is a great player. But if he goes to Shea or LA it might look a lot worse. Also depending on the team he might not be stealing 30+ bases. It is just something to keep in mind.
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Postby ramble2 » Mon Nov 10, 2003 12:17 pm

I wouldn't worry too much about the drop in doubles from Beltran. I agree that it's a bigger concern over whether he leaves Kaufman, and if so, where he ends up.
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