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Sosa--opinions?

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Sosa--opinions?

Postby Erboes » Sat Nov 08, 2003 10:35 am

I've read here and other places that Sosa will have a huge year next season due to his 30 homers and 67 rbi's over the last three months of this season. A look at the numbers over this period makes me wonder about this assertion.

The numbers show that over this period all his other stats declined. He stopped drawing walks (24), doubles were none existent (8) and his average was only .266. It appears to me that he sacrificed everything else for those power numbers. As a life long student of the game, I know power hitters as they age -- and Sosa's 35 or, if you believe the rumors, much older -- tend to cheat as their bat slows in order to keep their power numbers up. Could this be happening to Sammy? Watching him at the end of the season and in the playoffs certainly draws me to that conclusion. Is he nothing more than a .260, 40 homer, 120 hitter now or is there an injury that lies behind this?
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Postby Madison » Sat Nov 08, 2003 1:55 pm

Sure Sammy had an off year, due to many reasons. Personally, I'd say something like .280-.290-40-110. A lot of people will be keeping a close eye on his performance next year.
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Postby Nomar4prez » Sat Nov 08, 2003 2:00 pm

Say what you want to about Sosa, but that boy can hit the ball. I say he has 2-3 more excellent seasons ahead of him, or maybe, like Bonds, it has just began.
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Postby MikeeDee » Sat Nov 08, 2003 2:08 pm

I think Sosa has been great in the past and will be merely very good next year. .270 40hr 100rbi 90r 150k's something like that? In my league, where k's count against and walks in your favor, Sosa is someone I'd trade for an up and coming guy with good plate discipline. I think he's primed for a slow but steady decline.
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Postby wrveres » Mon Nov 10, 2003 8:26 am

Sosa is a stud, a cheating corker stud, but a stud none the less.

in '04 .285ba ... 55hr ... 125rbi
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Postby Tribe-Fan » Mon Nov 10, 2003 1:16 pm

Erboes,
I am going to steal a little from one of your other posts, but wouldn't Sosa fit into that group of players that played below expectations in 2003 that you look for to bounceback in 2004? He seems to fit that mold very nicely.
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Postby Erboes » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:31 pm

Well, Tribe fan, indeed he does, but there are other factors involved. Players tend to fade near the end of their careers, correct? And if a player is on that slide is it not doubtful that he will rebound? Sosa's been slipping for the past two seasons (from $47 in '01 to $32 in '02 to $26 last season), I think it's logical to ask if he'll do it a third. In fact, that would be another interesting research topic: Do players tend to rebound after two inferior seasons in a row? I think I'll let someone else tackle that one.
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Postby Guest » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:50 pm

My two pennies say that he'll be somewhere between 2003 and 2002, which isn't bad.

If his name was anything else, he'd be a guy I'd target as a bit of a comeback possibility, but with his name, he'll still be over-valued.

If a gun was put to my head, I'd say:

550 AB 285/390/590 42 HR 130 RBI 1 SB

Thats not bad, but I have a hard time seeing him w/ 55+ HR, or 320+ BA again.
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Postby Area51's » Mon Nov 10, 2003 2:51 pm

forgot to login....last post was mine....just didn't want to be a lurker!
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Re: Sosa--opinions?

Postby HOOTIE » Tue Nov 11, 2003 6:17 am

Erboes wrote:I've read here and other places that Sosa will have a huge year next season due to his 30 homers and 67 rbi's over the last three months of this season. A look at the numbers over this period makes me wonder about this assertion.

The numbers show that over this period all his other stats declined. He stopped drawing walks (24), doubles were none existent (8) and his average was only .266. It appears to me that he sacrificed everything else for those power numbers. As a life long student of the game, I know power hitters as they age -- and Sosa's 35 or, if you believe the rumors, much older -- tend to cheat as their bat slows in order to keep their power numbers up. Could this be happening to Sammy? Watching him at the end of the season and in the playoffs certainly draws me to that conclusion. Is he nothing more than a .260, 40 homer, 120 hitter now or is there an injury that lies behind this?


40 hrs, 120 rbis are pretty impressive, even at 260. McGwire made a career of it. Can Sosa still do that? Probably something close. I think his golden years are gone. He hit more 2nd half hrs, but his oba was horrible at 305. His eyes seem to be going back to the young Sammy (hacker). His w/k rate dropped from .73 to .46, quite a drop. Hes starting to hit more groundballs, g/f ratio, which could explain fewer gappers and hrs.
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