Andruw Jones - My Take on him!

[FBIGUY]

ANDRUW JONES – CF – ATLANTA BRAVES


Jones has enjoyed two of the best years of his career in 2005 and 2006. He hit 41 HR’s, knocked in 129 RBI, and scored 104 runs last season. His batting average was a little less than desired; Jones hit just .262 for the 2006 season. If history is any indication, his batting average is not going to change much from year to year. He has improved his power numbers at the plate in recent years and he has become a top-notch defender winning his ninth consecutive Gold Glove award in 2006. Early word form Braves camp is that Jones has lost 20 pounds in the off season, which should take some pressure off his chronically sore knees.

What to expect in 2007?

Jones has shown that he want to improve his game. His winter workouts…have caused Andruw to lose 20 pounds and should help him with his production. I see Jones hitting his usual .265 for the year. I also expect him to produce a solid 120 RBI, 110 Runs, and about 45 HR. Those numbers should again put him at the top of MLB for his position. Jones is in a contract year and slimming down could help his free-agent value by keeping him in the lineup more. Don’t under estimate the power money may have on Jones. He will be trying to post career numbers this season in an effort to get paid maximum dollars next season. We often see players in contract years produce at high levels and I suspect Jones may be one of those guys.

Fantasy Outlook!

Jones is primed for a huge season. He has proven over the last few years that he is one of the top 5 players at his position. He will continue to do that. He is being drafted around the end of the second round in most early drafts I have seen. I think that is about the correct value for an established player at his position. However, I feel Andruw may outplay his ADP this season. Jones could add a few more home runs to his total and post a batting average 15 points higher than years past. If he does that you are going to want him on your fantasy team in 2007. Don’t rule out a trade, if the Braves feel they can’t keep him in free agency or re-sign him. That could add value if he ends up on a team with more offensive power around him. Remember that a mid season trade often will slow a players production as he gets used to his new environment. Keep those things in mind if you draft Jones this year.

[Doughhead]

Interesting take. The fact that he is playing for a contract is definitely worth noting. As you say, he seems like the kind of guy who might be motivated by that (that's not a knock on him--I'm just saying that he's in his prime years, seems to be really trying to improve his game, and, as good as he has been over the past few years, doesn't seem to get the same recognition as other elite outfielders).

I don't expect Andruw to improve his average--he's seems like a pretty consistent .260-.270 hitter. But he's likely to hit 40+ homers and up to 120 RBIs while playing for that contract. He's a solid second round pick and a great third rounder.

[George_Foreman]

"Keeping him in the lineup more"? The man has been a machine, appearing in 155+ games in all but two of his full seasons. Last year was 156, 2005 was 160. Playing time has never really been an issue for him.

While I disagree that his BA will improve very much over the past few years, his power numbers should definitely be there. He's especially valuable in leagues where OF position matters, as there are only 3 other guys who can provide numbers on the same level (Wells, Beltran, Sizemore).

Also, I wouldn't be concerned about a trade. Andruw is a 10/5 guy, and he probably won't want to leave Atlanta until the end of the season. He'd probably have to have a deal in place to agree to the trade (and even then, I doubt Boras would let him sign without testing the market), and the Braves would have to be out of the race by the trade deadline (which I would be surprised to see).