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Position scarcity: Fact or fiction?

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Postby shortsavage » Thu Nov 06, 2003 7:48 pm

Erboes,

Welcome to the board (now that you are official a member). It is always good to have opinionated posters.

You have attempted to make a very interesting and valiant arguement. However, your examples seem a little fuzzy and positional scarcity is one step away from being a fantasy law.

English freak SIDE NOTE: It would also be easier to understand your posts if you spent more time editing them.
Last edited by shortsavage on Thu Nov 06, 2003 8:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Arlo

Postby shortsavage » Thu Nov 06, 2003 7:56 pm

Transmogrifier wrote:It's also interesting to note the depth--or at least the lack of deviation (less than OF)--at third base. With Pujols Chipper-ified, 3b is somewhat deep.


Haha, I used the term "Chipperfied" in a post a week or so ago. Has it already been coined? It is a great expression to use when looking at 2b, SS, C and 3B switches to the outfield.
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Postby Erboes » Thu Nov 06, 2003 8:50 pm

Shortsavage,

The biggest insult you can make toward a former English major like me is to criticize his English. Point is well taken, though. It is just so taxing questioning common knowledge that I have little left for editing.

I'm a bit surprised that the only real defense for your philosophy was a two team draft that falls a bit short of realistic. The main defense seems to be, "Hey, everyone does it, so that proves it works." I'm sorry, but I don't buy into that type of logic. Can't someone here use some facts to back it up?

And do you have to start with this Beltre crap already? After suffering with him for various times of the past three seasons I need a reprieve. Oh, and here's my yearly list of primo bounce back candidates. They'll win you a championship if you can get them cheaply:

Tejada
Berkman
Shawn Green

I'll have more as the offseason progresses.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Nov 06, 2003 9:00 pm

Erboes wrote:I'm a bit surprised that the only real defense for your philosophy was a two team draft that falls a bit short of realistic.


YOU are the one questioning a Fantasy Law; YOU need the evidence, and three years of dollar figures isn't enough. The standard deviation is pretty good, wouldn't you say?

I'm all for people questioning common knowledge, but it is not us who have to defend our case. The burden is on you.

And welcome to the Cafe! (And some great first posts, by the way.) ;-D
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Re: Arlo

Postby Arlo » Thu Nov 06, 2003 9:09 pm

Nothing as controversial in fantasy baseball as positional scarcity... :-D

The two-team draft is just a way of illustrating the point (albeit a valid one); for proof, standard deviations as calculated by Pogo are less assailable.

Besides, if you consider Soriano and A-Rod as possibly the top two fantasy players, aren't you buying into positional scarcity yourself?
Erboes wrote:Keep in mind with SS and 2b as well that possibly the two best players overall play these spots in A-Rod and Soriano. Take them out and you'll find much the same. I agree that SS can hardly be classified as scarce anymore, so that position shouldn't really be included in this discussion.
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Postby BumpWills » Thu Nov 06, 2003 10:16 pm

I think the two team draft actually skews the results to the best player available strategy. It seems to me that the deeper the league, the more important it is to own quality offensive players at weak positions.

In a two team scenerio, the team with the second best SS gets a guy like Tejada or Garciaparra. In the 12 team example everyone got a $16+ 2B. In a 24 team league guys like Royce Clayton and Mike Matheny start to appear.

I realize the quality of OF also goes down, but I find it easier to scrape up decent OF late than middle infielders. Very few starting OF's are kept around for their glove without any offensive ability (see Jack Wilson).

I also think it should be easier to find undrafted breakthrough players in the OF. More players play the outfield and more young guys are likely to break into the lineup covering OF injuries and slumps.

How about the other age old fantasy debate...does the smart fantasy manager draft pitching or hitting?
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Postby Tribe-Fan » Thu Nov 06, 2003 11:05 pm

I saved a mock draft from TSN from 2003. The first 10 pitchers taken in order were Johnson, Schilling, Pedro, Ozwalt, Halladay, Hudson, Gagne, Maddux, Morris, and Lowe. Only Pedro, Halladay, Hudson and Gagne had truly great years, the other 6 were hurt or did not pitch up to expectations.

Now lets look at the top 10 hitters. Arod, Soriano, Vlad, Pujols, Bonds, Giambi, Sosa, Helton, Piazza, and Manny. Now Piazza was a bust last year, but all the rest had decent to fantastic seasons.

I know it is only the top 10 for each, but I think it gets to my point. Pitching is damn risky. I know, I took Weaver and Radke fairly early last year in my 7-keeper league, as they were 2 of the best on paper that were not kept. The guy with the 1st pick took Glavine, and called it a no-brainer pick. Screw that. This year I am keeping 2, Pedro and Santana, and then drafting the rest late.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Nov 06, 2003 11:35 pm

Arlo wrote:

Ok, time for the best available player folks to rip into me! Great topic! ;-D


Who would rip you? You are the headwaiter, and the Cafe crowd is hungry lol.

Position scarcity exists. Take the top 10 guys at each position and compare. 1b and outfield dominate. The real question is, does position scarcity win? I'm kind of on both sides of the fence. I believe in it when superstuds are on the board. Once they are gone, i always try to pick best player. One thing in favor of best player available, is value is value. It really doesnt matter where your value comes from, just that you have it.
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Postby HOOTIE » Thu Nov 06, 2003 11:37 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:OK. This peak my attention, so I did a little research. Rototimes values for a MLB universe 12 team 5x5.

Here are the standard deviation for the top 12 players at
2b - $9.76
C - $8.64
1b - $6.99
SS - $11.14
3rd - with Pujols $10.28 without Pujols $5.42

top 36 at
OF - $6.67

Now if there was no such thing as position scarcity these numbers would all be equal.


I guess i don't get these numbers? I know c is by far the weakest offensive position. How is c in the middle?
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Postby Transmogrifier » Fri Nov 07, 2003 12:37 am

HOOTIE wrote:I guess i don't get these numbers? I know c is by far the weakest offensive position. How is c in the middle?


Well, while catcher may very well be the weakest position, that doesn't mean that there is great separation amongst the top positions. SS and second base have GREATER separation--or a larger "standard deviation"--amongst production values. Sure, this is slightly tilted for a few players, but that's the point. There is a huge drop off from Arod-Nomar-Tejada-Renteria, and Soriano-Boone-Kent.

Same with catchers, but it is smaller.
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