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Position scarcity: Fact or fiction?

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Arlo

Postby Erboes » Thu Nov 06, 2003 2:39 pm

I don't know, Arlo, that is a bit of laboritory test and not one based on the real world. What usually happens in a draft is that someone will take like a $21 Posada with the 18th pick and I'll take a $35 Ordonez in with 19th. That means I could take a $10 catcher in the 20th round and for him to match my $45 of production he'll have to take an OF around the 7th or 8th round. In an auction someone will always pay the going amount or more for a catcher like Posada but you can scoop up a bargain price OF like Ordonez for $25. This is all crazy. Posada should go somewhere around the 8th round and no earlier, but it doesn't happen. "I got to get me a catcher!" you can here people thinking and there he goes in the second or third round and you here people moan in disappointment. This is all lunacy.
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Nov 06, 2003 2:43 pm

OK. This peak my attention, so I did a little research. Rototimes values for a MLB universe 12 team 5x5.

Here are the standard deviation for the top 12 players at
2b - $9.76
C - $8.64
1b - $6.99
SS - $11.14
3rd - with Pujols $10.28 without Pujols $5.42

top 36 at
OF - $6.67

Now if there was no such thing as position scarcity these numbers would all be equal.
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Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Nov 06, 2003 2:46 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Now if there was no such thing as position scarcity these numbers would all be equal.


Now, standard deviation I completely understand. I think Pogo just made the best point. ;-D
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Postby Shitney™ » Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:09 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:OK. This peak my attention, so I did a little research. Rototimes values for a MLB universe 12 team 5x5.

Here are the standard deviation for the top 12 players at
2b - $9.76
C - $8.64
1b - $6.99
SS - $11.14
3rd - with Pujols $10.28 without Pujols $5.42

top 36 at
OF - $6.67

Now if there was no such thing as position scarcity these numbers would all be equal.


which is why i want my MI selected by round 4 or 5 ;-D
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Postby stevelabny » Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:17 pm

position scarcity isnt a scam.

why?

because whether you play auction or draft, you can never be assured of the BEST OF. so the stats youre looking at are more of a scam than position scarcity. especially since youre looking at final value and not comparing it to pre-season value. (example: the year soriano was the top 2B at $44, he was nowhere near a 1st round pick or $44 auction bid. so it would have been even MORE foolish to overdraft a 2B early, but wise to snag him late instead of a mediocre OF)

the concept is difficult to grasp because there is no strict RULE, and thats where people go wrong.

some people will draft any MI/C over any OF.
they are obviously stupid.

some people will draft any good MI/C over any OF.
they are stupid, though less obviously.

some people will draft any great MI/C over any OF.
this is really just a judgment call.
its not always right. its not always wrong.

and also in drafts and or auctions, you might not wind up with even the 12th best 2B or C, as other people might be filling their MI or U spots in a normal 12 team league.

since most leagues require backup C, what are the differences between the 13th and 24th C as compared to the 37th and 60th OF?
what are the chances if you take the 13th C (assuming that EVERYONE else at your draft agrees with your best 12) that you will wind up with the 60th OF (slim, theres no way everyone agrees on the rankings of OFs 37-60)

this isnt a rule either, as sometimes the best backup catcher left will be better than some scrubby OFs, but there are usually enough good sleeper OFs out there to just sit on a C.

EVERY draft pick/auction bid is a DECISION.
you have to weigh all the options.
is the player too expensive? can i get similar stats for the same price or less? if i dont draft him now, will he still be here for my next pick?
if i miss out on this guy, is their another player who can give me his steals or homers? is there still enough players at this position that I will be happy having on my team?

you have to look at stats, position scarcity, AND draft/auction position which means what you have on your team as far as categories and positions, what EVERYONE ELSE has on their team.

yes, stats are the most important, but you must take EVERYTHING into account.

and learning how to do that is what seperates the men from the boys as they say
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Re: Arlo

Postby Arlo » Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:20 pm

Erboes wrote:I don't know, Arlo, that is a bit of laboritory test and not one based on the real world.

Agreed - in the real world, differing opinions, projections and strategies (not to mention injuries, sleepers, slumps, poor projections and so on) enter into the equation, and make it hard to determine the impact draft strategy had on a team. You're right, perhaps it wasn't the best example; Pogo's numbers are a far clearer way of making the point. !+)

Interesting that SS still has the highest standard deviation in spite of several shortstops performing better than expected this season. Definitely something to think about...
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Postby Shitney™ » Thu Nov 06, 2003 3:26 pm

i dont see a rush on SS next year..
there will be Arod, Jeter, Nomar, Tejada, Renteria going early
then Furcal, Cabrera, Matsui going middle
and reyes, rollins, crosby and berroa left for the guys ok with sleepers..

thats 12 SS that will not hurt having as a starter..
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Re: Arlo

Postby Transmogrifier » Thu Nov 06, 2003 4:05 pm

Arlo wrote:
Erboes wrote:I don't know, Arlo, that is a bit of laboritory test and not one based on the real world.

Agreed - in the real world, differing opinions, projections and strategies (not to mention injuries, sleepers, slumps, poor projections and so on) enter into the equation, and make it hard to determine the impact draft strategy had on a team. You're right, perhaps it wasn't the best example; Pogo's numbers are a far clearer way of making the point. !+)

Interesting that SS still has the highest standard deviation in spite of several shortstops performing better than expected this season. Definitely something to think about...


It's also interesting to note the depth--or at least the lack of deviation (less than OF)--at third base. With Pujols Chipper-ified, 3b is somewhat deep.
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Re: Arlo

Postby Erboes » Thu Nov 06, 2003 4:47 pm

[quote="Transmogrifier"][quote="Arlo"][quote="Erboes"]I don't know, Arlo, that is a bit of laboritory test and not one based on the real world.[/quote]
Agreed - in the real world, differing opinions, projections and strategies (not to mention injuries, sleepers, slumps, poor projections and so on) enter into the equation, and make it hard to determine the impact draft strategy had on a team. You're right, perhaps it wasn't the best example; Pogo's numbers are a far clearer way of making the point. !+)

Interesting that SS still has the highest standard deviation in spite of several shortstops performing better than expected this season. Definitely something to think about...[/quote]

It's also interesting to note the depth--or at least the lack of deviation (less than OF)--at third base. With Pujols Chipper-ified, 3b is somewhat deep.[/quote]

Keep in mind with SS and 2b as well that possibly the two best players overall play these spots in A-Rod and Soriano. Take them out and you'll find much the same. I agree that SS can hardly be classified as scarce anymore, so that position shouldn't really be included in this discussion.

And I don't know why anyone would reach at 2b, 3b, and catcher anyway. You can just sit there and wait until much later and you usually can pick something quite serviceable. I picked Lopez in the 19th round in my main league as a backup (later cut him too after a bad start) and he was the top ranked catcher this season. Marcus Giles I picked in the 20th as a backup(cut him too for the same reason as Lopez. Is there any wonder why I didn't win it this year?) and he ended up 4th at 2b. And I picked up Blalock as a FA right before the start of the season (I kept onto him until I traded him later.). There just isn't enough out there to be doing it. Kent, Boone, Posada, Piazza, Lowell -- fine players all, but not much superior than what's behind them. Go ahead and spend your early picks on these types, it makes my job a lot easier.
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Re: Arlo

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Nov 06, 2003 4:48 pm

Arlo wrote:Interesting that SS still has the highest standard deviation in spite of several shortstops performing better than expected this season. Definitely something to think about...


Transmogrifier wrote:It's also interesting to note the depth--or at least the lack of deviation (less than OF)--at third base. With Pujols Chipper-ified, 3b is somewhat deep.


Both of these are do to the top tier really producing. A-Rod 39.76, Renteria 32.95 and Nomar 31.58 with a 19.38 average. Pujols 46.56 with a 17.96 average.
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