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The SS Hong-chih Kuo

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The SS Hong-chih Kuo

Postby KHI » Tue Feb 13, 2007 7:25 am

Another 'supersleeper' ( I've seen him not drafted on many 12/14 teams lists), who can become 'seaworthy' ( :*) ) if a few things pan out.

A 24 year old from Taiwan, he posted a 3.01 Era, 10.7 K9 (35 k's in 29.1 innings), 2.1 BB9 (5:1 K/BB), (gave up 1 homer) going 1-1 with 4/5 quality starts, to end the season last year.

His cons are that he's has 2 Tommy John surguries when he's been in the minors;
he has comparably small amount of time spent in the minors (con if you feel he isn't proven, pro if you feel he can only get better), he has control issues, and He is competing with Billingsley for a starting spot.

Last year as a reliever he had a 5.34 era, 10.7 K9 (36 in 30.1 innings), 7.7 BB9, (1.38:1 K/BB), (gave up 2 homers) going 0-4 with no saves.

Pro's are the he plays in Dodger stadium, he will be given a chance in ST to fight for the spot ( I have read that Colletti would be against having Billingsley start from the pen early, and there's always a chance ..something could happen to Wolf), he is a consistent K machine in the majors, and his minor league numbers (below) are VERY comparable to some of the top minors/ 'works in progress' that get talked about at the cafe. I'll pass on a Ollie on the final round and pick up Kuo instead.



Image
(http://www.thebaseballcube.com btw ;-D )


I didn't see the bottom link when I first posted this (and I'd like to think if Ollie can have 30 plus threads on leftovers Kuo can have 3)

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=240972&

Ollie minor WHIP (avg): 1.32
Cabrera minor WHIP : 1.36
.1 higher

Peavy: 1.11
Myers: 1.23

Kuo can be compared to these guys who had similar 1st app AAA experiences
Webb: 1.33
Zambrano: 1.34


I don't like comparing Kuo to Cabrera since Cabrera plays inthe AL in one of the best htting divisions in baseball. And also it would mean his numbers get worse this year...

Also, I have read Kuo has been working on a breaking ball to add to his pitches
Last edited by KHI on Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby greenandgold » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:08 am

I like this guy too, but his health is suspect. Check out this article (Baseball Analysts) http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/01/categorizing_pi_1.php

Kuo had a 44.3 gb% and 27.52 k/bf last year as a reliever which is above average in both cats (good sign). I don't think he will beat out Bills for a SP spot but if injuries or bad pitching push someone out of the rotation he could be back in and do well. For people who like to use SP/RP pitchers he is definitely a good pick in the last round.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:48 am

He's one of my end-game sleepers. ;-D
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Postby KHI » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:09 am

good stuff and nice site there greenand gold;
Is there a list like that for starters?

I was looking at HR/9 stats for 2006 and Randy Wolf is the 5th worst in the MLB with 50 innings max; Kuo is in the top 10 (#9), Wolf is bottom 10 (9th worst)

Also Ollie's HR/9 in the minor's was higher than all the pitchers I mention on the bottom of that post: .79, and has avg of 1.43 with .97 his career year.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:52 am

He has too much question marks right now. He's not assured of a rotation spot(in fact, I bet he doesn't get one opening day). And he's just had so little of a track record because of injuries.

also, a changeup from him would help. Anyway, I don't think he plays SS ;-)
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Postby greenandgold » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:26 am

KHI wrote:good stuff and nice site there greenand gold;
Is there a list like that for starters?

I was looking at HR/9 stats for 2006 and Randy Wolf is the 5th worst in the MLB with 50 innings max; Kuo is in the top 10 (#9), Wolf is bottom 10 (9th worst)

Also Ollie's HR/9 in the minor's was higher than all the pitchers I mention on the bottom of that post: .79, and has avg of 1.43 with .97 his career year.


Here is the starts article:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/20 ... ing_pi.php

He does minor leage pitchers as well, just look at the links on the LHS of the page.
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Postby Element » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:47 am

A trade of Brad Penny could be in order too, opening up a spot for him. Kuo is most likley to report to AAA to build up arm strength. With his injury history, the Dodgers want him being very careful.
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:53 am

Durability is the biggest concern. Right now I think he is topping out at 5-6 innings a game. Pushing him to do more is just asking for trouble. Nice flier though.
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Postby xeifrank » Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:41 pm

The guy is gathering quite a following already.

http://GuoMania.blogspot.com/

A good write-up about how Guo's stats as a starter last year compared to the very elite pitchers in both leagues.

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Postby KHI » Wed Feb 14, 2007 8:27 am

Yoda wrote:Durability is the biggest concern. Right now I think he is topping out at 5-6 innings a game. Pushing him to do more is just asking for trouble. Nice flier though.

:-? what do you base this on? He went 7 innings in one of his starts, and he was pulled in two 5 inning outings for giving up 5 runs and 8 hits 3 runs during a playoff race. Plus isn't it normal to start pitchers with low innings and move to higher, like Liriano last year? I also think he shouldn't be pushed, but 2 tommy's are the biggest concern. Do you have more info on his durability?
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