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Postby 05worldserieschamps » Tue Feb 13, 2007 10:58 am

Thanks, that was a big help. But since VORP isn't the best way to do that, what is?? Is there a certain stats besides the normal AVG, OBP, OPS, HR, RBI, SB, ect. that would be an effective tool?
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 13, 2007 11:08 am

Ender wrote:I disagree, VORP is flawed to begin with from a fantasy perspective. You simply are not concerned with how valuable your players are compared to a FA, you are concerned with how valuable your players are compared to the other teams players.


And, if every player is compared to replacement players, then you have, in the difference between each player's VORP, a measure that compares each player to the other team's players.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:56 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:I disagree, VORP is flawed to begin with from a fantasy perspective. You simply are not concerned with how valuable your players are compared to a FA, you are concerned with how valuable your players are compared to the other teams players.


And, if every player is compared to replacement players, then you have, in the difference between each player's VORP, a measure that compares each player to the other team's players.


Yes but you are deciding how valuable 2B is compared to SS based on how good the FA players at the position are, I don't understand how that makes sense.

What I do is I take the STD Deviation of all the 2B and the STD deviation of all the SS's and use that for my position scarcity formula.

Stating it as simply as I can, if you wanted to know how scarce 2B were before drafting would you look at the top 14 players at the position and decide from that info or would you look at the 15th-17th best players... thats exactly what VORP is doing, just looking at the 15-17th best guys.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 13, 2007 2:57 pm

Ender wrote:Yes but you are deciding how valuable 2B is compared to SS based on how good the FA players at the position are, I don't understand how that makes sense.

What I do is I take the STD Deviation of all the 2B and the STD deviation of all the SS's and use that for my position scarcity formula.

Stating it as simply as I can, if you wanted to know how scarce 2B were before drafting would you look at the top 14 players at the position and decide from that info or would you look at the 15th-17th best players... thats exactly what VORP is doing, just looking at the 15-17th best guys.


No, you are not. In VORP, you are comparing EVERY player (from 1-14 in your example) to the players just below that (15-?, depending on how you want to do it). Thus, you are looking at the value for all the likely pool, not just the 15th-17th.

The fact is that both of these are useful pieces of information and they parallel the discussion in real baseball on the importance of comparing players to replacement versus average. I think VORP is more useful, because I can actually do both using that measure, while with your approach, you cannot work backwards to the replacement level issue.
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Postby thinkspin » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:29 pm

Ender wrote:What I do is I take the STD Deviation of all the 2B and the STD deviation of all the SS's and use that for my position scarcity formula.

Stating it as simply as I can, if you wanted to know how scarce 2B were before drafting would you look at the top 14 players at the position and decide from that info or would you look at the 15th-17th best players... thats exactly what VORP is doing, just looking at the 15-17th best guys.


Ender,
Your STD Deviation formula should include only the players that should be DRAFTED, not ALL at a Position. I hope this is what you meant.

Really, it should be two passes through the Population. First pass is to determine the Drafted playes and the second pass is to determine the Value of the Drafted players against each other.

This is what VORP is trying to do in one pass.

Either way, they both sound like decent measures of player value...
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Postby Ender » Wed Feb 14, 2007 9:29 am

Yeah I only include the drafted field, players who aren't being drafted have no meaning because their projections are most likely not accurate. Either someone steps up and posts big numbers (Uggla etc) or their playtime increases (DeRosa etc), so using FA level players for anything is dubious at best.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 14, 2007 3:40 pm

Ender wrote:Yeah I only include the drafted field, players who aren't being drafted have no meaning because their projections are most likely not accurate. Either someone steps up and posts big numbers (Uggla etc) or their playtime increases (DeRosa etc), so using FA level players for anything is dubious at best.


There's no evidence I've seen that suggests the 15th and higher players are projected less accurately than the 1st through 14th.
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Postby Ender » Wed Feb 14, 2007 5:48 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:Yeah I only include the drafted field, players who aren't being drafted have no meaning because their projections are most likely not accurate. Either someone steps up and posts big numbers (Uggla etc) or their playtime increases (DeRosa etc), so using FA level players for anything is dubious at best.


There's no evidence I've seen that suggests the 15th and higher players are projected less accurately than the 1st through 14th.


Of course they are, the less of a track record a player has the lower he's drafted and the less accurate his projections are. There aren't all that many players who play full time yet don't make a roster, the majority of the 2nd tier guys are part timers even if its 400 AB style part time.

Now that doesn't have anything to do with why VORP is useless, thats just why I wouldn't include them in my STD Dev calculations.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Feb 14, 2007 7:16 pm

Ender wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Ender wrote:Yeah I only include the drafted field, players who aren't being drafted have no meaning because their projections are most likely not accurate. Either someone steps up and posts big numbers (Uggla etc) or their playtime increases (DeRosa etc), so using FA level players for anything is dubious at best.


There's no evidence I've seen that suggests the 15th and higher players are projected less accurately than the 1st through 14th.


Of course they are, the less of a track record a player has the lower he's drafted and the less accurate his projections are. There aren't all that many players who play full time yet don't make a roster, the majority of the 2nd tier guys are part timers even if its 400 AB style part time.

Now that doesn't have anything to do with why VORP is useless, thats just why I wouldn't include them in my STD Dev calculations.


Argument by assertion isn't convincing. The 15th ranked player is the average major leaguer at that position, roughly, not a part-timer. Last year the 15th ranked players were:

at 1B: Nick Johnson
2B: Mike Lowell
3B: Freddy Sanchez
SS: Freddy Sanchez
C: Johnny Estrada
OF (46th ranked): Scott Posednik

Every one of those players, except Estrada, had 500+ ABs.

The 15th-20th players don't have less of a track record and aren't part-timers.
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Postby Ender » Thu Feb 15, 2007 7:33 pm

Yes because Nick Johnson who gets hurt every year, Freddy Sanchez who had never played a full season, Estrada who was hurt the yaer before and terrible and Lowell who was coming off a horrible year are as easy to predict as early rounds.

Now your just being obtuse for arguments sake. Of course the later round players are harder to predict accurately than the earlier round. Also you can't just look at where players ranked in hind sight, you have to look at where they ranked before last year and what they ended up doing. I gaurentee you the average person is less sure of their predictions for the 15-25th best players at a position than they are for the top 10.

Using thundermatt's rankings as an example...

http://thundermatt.blogspot.com/2007/02 ... lah-1.html

15th player on each list.

C-Gerald Laird - I can't predict him with any certainty at all.

1B- Todd Helton - This is a bit easier because 1B is so deep

2B - Ray Durham - Not an easy case, does 20+ HR guy show up or injured half the year guy

3B - Edwin Encarnacion - A 2nd year player who was hurt last year and has lost playtime time because of his fielding.. not an easy read.

SS - Stephen Drew - Rookie with no clue as to how much playtime he'll get.

OF - Ryan Freel - ok he's an easy read, but Chris Young is next and he certainly is not.

RP - Brad Lidge - could get between 5 and 45 saves, completely up in the air.

Later round picks are usually young high upside guys with playtime issues, injury concerned vets and guys coming off of bad years. These are the hardest types of players to project accurately.
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