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Do or Dye?

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Do or Dye?

Postby Doughhead » Mon Feb 12, 2007 10:02 pm

Obviously, Jermaine Dye's ridiculous breakout season at 32 caught everyone by surprise. Some may have suspected that a healthy Dye would have been able to put up a solid season, but nothing that he had done in the past prepared us for a season that was truly great across the board. If the White Sox had made the playoffs, there is almost no question that Dye would have been AL MVP.

So the question is, was Dye's 2006 a spectacular aberration or the beginning of something big--that rare player who finds a way to stay healthy and maximize his talents for the first time well into his 30s? Most people are being very cautious about Dye going into 07. A repeat of his numbers would make him a first round slam dunk. But in most drafts, he is going in the 4th or later. Are people being too skeptical or is Dye really unlikely to approach his 06 numbers? Has anyone done a statistical analysis that helps explain his unexpected monster season and gives a hint as to the future?
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Postby Pogotheostrich » Mon Feb 12, 2007 10:37 pm

Next to no chance he repeats 2006

38 points over his career BA
46 points over his career OBP
136 points over his career SLG
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Postby fiz » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:07 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:Next to no chance he repeats 2006

38 points over his career BA
46 points over his career OBP
136 points over his career SLG


agreed. i just don't see him living up to where he's being picked these days, in the 4th or 5th round.
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Postby Doughhead » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:14 pm

So what is a reasonable projection? .280/90/30/100/5?
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Postby fiz » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:15 pm

Doughhead wrote:So what is a reasonable projection? .280/90/30/100/5?


that's close, but that would even surprise me. whether its an injury or just lack of production, there's something about him that just makes me not a believer...
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Postby 05worldserieschamps » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:36 pm

I don't think that Dye will be able to put up "MVP" numbers again, but I certainly think he will be better than most believe. He set his Career high in only 3 offensive categories. HR-44(previous 2 best were 33-31) RBI-120 (previous best were 119-118) and SLG-.622 (.561-.526) I think that after he really felt at home with the White Sox and won the WS and the WS MVP, he really built up confidence and comfort on the South Side. I also think with that solid lineup he has around him, his RBI and R totals should be the same. Also, he was just deadly clutch last year. And after seeing so many Sox games and our bullpen blowing the game only to be saved by Dye, I think he was the clutchest player in baseball last season. Ortiz is amazing in big situations, but Dye was just a lock for a big hit in late innings.

I look for him to be more around:

.310 AVG/34 HR/118 RBI/101 R/6 SB

A small decline in every category, but I still feel confident he can lead our team and be the most dominant offensive threat.

But I think one player that can be overlooked is Konerko. I think he will be better than Dye.

.318/42 HR/123 RBI/ 98 R/3 SB

If you look, since 2004, he has gotten better. (HR #'s dropped last year, but 40 and 41 before that). His average has bumped alot and he is just a team leader.
Is pushing for President Obama to pass a law requiring all citizens to be Chicago White Sox fans and make October 1st "White Sox Day" where we all dress as our favorite player. It maybe socialist, but I don't care.
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Postby 05worldserieschamps » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:37 pm

I dont think he will have a problem production wise, but I do understand injury concerns.
Is pushing for President Obama to pass a law requiring all citizens to be Chicago White Sox fans and make October 1st "White Sox Day" where we all dress as our favorite player. It maybe socialist, but I don't care.
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Postby fiz » Mon Feb 12, 2007 11:42 pm

05worldserieschamps wrote:I don't think that Dye will be able to put up "MVP" numbers again, but I certainly think he will be better than most believe. He set his Career high in only 3 offensive categories. HR-44(previous 2 best were 33-31) RBI-120 (previous best were 119-118) and SLG-.622 (.561-.526) I think that after he really felt at home with the White Sox and won the WS and the WS MVP, he really built up confidence and comfort on the South Side. I also think with that solid lineup he has around him, his RBI and R totals should be the same. Also, he was just deadly clutch last year. And after seeing so many Sox games and our bullpen blowing the game only to be saved by Dye, I think he was the clutchest player in baseball last season. Ortiz is amazing in big situations, but Dye was just a lock for a big hit in late innings.

I look for him to be more around:

.310 AVG/34 HR/118 RBI/101 R/6 SB

A small decline in every category, but I still feel confident he can lead our team and be the most dominant offensive threat.

But I think one player that can be overlooked is [b]Konerko. I think he will be better than Dye.[/b]

.318/42 HR/123 RBI/ 98 R/3 SB

If you look, since 2004, he has gotten better. (HR #'s dropped last year, but 40 and 41 before that). His average has bumped alot and he is just a team leader.


i absolutely agree - konerko is a consistenly underrated 1b
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Postby The Jury » Tue Feb 13, 2007 1:37 am

Anyone draw any comparisons to Derrek Lee here? They both were firmly established as good hitters with good pop, but clearly below the elite level of baseball sluggers. I still can't make myself believe it's true, but Derrek Lee may have climbed up a rung, and I never saw that coming at all. Same with Jermaine Dye - I can't see him climbing into the next group, but the words from his bat will speak much louder than my words will in the end.
[quote:4fef447375="Geek"]The odds of the AL MVP coming from the American League are looking pretty good.[/quote]
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Postby KHI » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:48 am

Also Luis Gonzalez 2001..
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