Point System based on Runs Estimation Methods

[The Loveable Losers]

I've always been intrigued about the possibility of creating a points league based off of some of the runs estimation methods out there. Have pitchers and hitters both rewarded in the exact same categories - things like outs, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, bb + hbp, intentional walks, sb's, cs, gidp and k's. You would also need to add in runs scored on an out and runners advancing on an out so as to not penalize players that move up runners (especially bringing them home) when they make an out. For pitchers you use the exact same categories but flipped around - it would be based on how many of those things they allow.

By doing this you're creating a point system that simply rewards players for doing the things that lead to run creation and in an amount appropriate to the positive or negative effect that event has on the chances to score a run. It's then completely separate from the number of runners on base, situation, etc. All that matters is the performance of each player in the vacuum of each individual plate appearance.

Anyone know if any of the stat services out there would support a wacky point system that has the following categories both for pitchers and for hitters?

OUTS -0.1002
SNGL 0.4753
DOUB 0.6266
TRIP 0.9965
HRUN 1.4375
BB+HP 0.3421
IBB 0.1474
SB 0.0826
CS -0.2834
GDP -0.4371
RAO 0.0097 (credit to batter when runners advance on their out)
RSO 0.6794 (credit to batter when runners score on their out)
K -0.1040

I simplified the runs estimator survey there to remove some of the baserunner driven stuff. Basically the points system would have those exact categories with those exact weights for both pitchers and hitters with the pitchers getting the negative value of all of those categories when they allow/induce those things to happen.

[StlSluggers]

Ever looked into Mendoza Baseball?

[The Loveable Losers]

Yeah, they're doing pretty much the same thing on the hitting side. The point values are a tiny bit different (although not by that much) but it's the same concept. They don't do the same thing on the pitching end though and I wonder why...they cop out and go with simple Runs Allowed and Innings Pitched as their only categories for pitchers.

[StlSluggers]

I completely agree. For as scientific as their hitting side is, I was very surprised by the lack of depth in their pitching system and the seemingly arbitrary multipliers applied to their RP designations.

BTW, I don't recognize RAO and RSO. What do they stand for?

[The Loveable Losers]

BTW, I don't recognize RAO and RSO. What do they stand for?

Runs advancing on an out and runs scored on an out. Since the system I linked is trying to predict runs based on every factor involved it includes some things that aren't completely hitting driven (including errors). Some of them I didn't want to pull over because they don't fit for a fantasy baseball points league very well. Unfortunately you almost have to bring RAO and RSO over since doing otherwise leaves out the positive effect of sacrifice flies as well as penalizing people for things such as sacrifice bunts. I suppose you could change the outs category to something like AB-H though and get close to the same result since most (but not all) of those runner advancing plays credit the hitter with a sacrifice and by extension don't count as an at bat.

[StlSluggers]

A few questions, LL:

1. Mendoza seems to be pretty similar to Jarvis' numbers, but Mendoza is updated annually. Do you think the differences between their numbers are simply due to that?
2. How can a system claim to be independent of runners on base if it includes stats where runners do and don't score, particularly RSO? That seems like a runner would have to be on base for it to work.
3. Is it necessarily appropriate to penalize/reward a pitcher for SB/CS results?

[The Loveable Losers]

A few questions, LL:

1. Mendoza seems to be pretty similar to Jarvis' numbers, but Mendoza is updated annually. Do you think the differences between their numbers are simply due to that?
2. How can a system claim to be independent of runners on base if it includes stats where runners do and don't score, particularly RSO? That seems like a runner would have to be on base for it to work.
3. Is it necessarily appropriate to penalize/reward a pitcher for SB/CS results?

On the first point it's very possible that it's simply a recalibration. For anyone that doesn't know these numbers aren't some magical number that rules baseball...they're simply derived from a season or several seasons' statistics to show what effect each event has on scoring.

The second point is definitely valid. If you go purely with the statistics that lead to run creation RSO and RAO have to be included to give back some or all of the credit that the batter loses due to the out they recorded. It would certainly be an option though to use AB-H as a replacement for the outs category which then removes the need for RSO and RAO since the batter is not being penalized for sacrifice hits. What you lose is the tracking of batters that make 'productive outs' (hitting behind the runner at second base to move them to third when they're batting with no one out for example) but we're not trying to be perfect here...just close. In the interest of removing some of the external noise I'd probably choose to go AB-H instead of outs and then ignore RSO and RAO.

On the third point you could certainly leave those categories out. I'd love to see the system completely symmetrical though and the pitcher definitely plays a role in stolen bases/caught stealing against. For me the categorical symmetry trumps the fact that some stolen bases come against the catcher and some against the pitcher. Considering that stolen bases are often a break-even proposition anyways I don't think it will skew too much in the system.

[The Loveable Losers]

Just wanted to bump this with a new question.

I haven't been able to find one but does anyone know of a free stat service that gives the following categories for both hitters AND pitchers?

Outs, Singles, Doubles, Triples, Home Runs, BB+HBP, IBB, SB, CS, GIDP, K

I've boiled the rules down to just using those categories but I really want to have the categories identical with both pitchers and with hitters. That way your pitching staff is basically taking runs away from your team via negative points for run creation events allowed while your hitters are adding runs to your team via positive points for run creation events and the team with the highest overall point total wins. The only artificial rule I'd have to add (which is actually a fairly natural rule if you think about it in terms of regular baseball) is a minimum ip per week of 63ip (9 innings per day, 7 days a week). This is in there since your pitchers deduct points from you and basically is intended to simulate a full game each day from your hitters along with a full game each day on average from your pitchers. You'd have to make sure to allow enough pitching slots to meet this ip requirement but beyond that it takes care of itself beyond that.

[bigh0rt]

I need to get in a league like th is with the two of you.

[StlSluggers]

I would actually pay for a service that provided that, if necessary.