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Help for keeper league draft strategy

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Postby Lofunzo » Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:22 am

wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:Ask Doctego. :-D

I hope that you are the same guy from another site.

Seriously, StL is the guy to ask. Tell him that JTWood asked you to PM him about your points league.


He is ..
suckerpuncher is the commish in the H2HWS German league ;-D


I figured but wanted to be safe. Do I get credits for referrals?? :-B


of course .. :-)
I have a few of these yellow T-Shirts I had made up recently, and if ya get us 12 'Jersey Boys' oorr girls, and I'll send ya one.

hows that?


Not sure. The Jersey guys are pretty lazy. :-o


yes I am learning that :-?


Apparently, the Cali guys are the same with the cutting of posts. :-D

If you notice anything in particular, let me know. I know most of them personally. At least I think I do. :-o
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Postby wrveres » Sun Feb 11, 2007 4:58 am

Lofunzo wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:
wrveres wrote:
Lofunzo wrote:Ask Doctego. :-D

I hope that you are the same guy from another site.

Seriously, StL is the guy to ask. Tell him that JTWood asked you to PM him about your points league.


He is ..
suckerpuncher is the commish in the H2HWS German league ;-D


I figured but wanted to be safe. Do I get credits for referrals?? :-B


of course .. :-)
I have a few of these yellow T-Shirts I had made up recently, and if ya get us 12 'Jersey Boys' oorr girls, and I'll send ya one.

hows that?


Not sure. The Jersey guys are pretty lazy. :-o


yes I am learning that :-?


Apparently, the Cali guys are the same with the cutting of posts. :-D

If you notice anything in particular, let me know. I know most of them personally. At least I think I do. :-o


Last edited by Lofunzo on 02/11/07 03:05:07, edited 1 time in total. ;-7
No, nothing in particular.

I do have a ton of difficulty believing that there is only 5 guys in Jersey that like baseball though ..
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Postby wrveres » Sun Feb 11, 2007 5:24 am

we just totally hi-jacked this thread ..


sorry :-o

sluggers, please give this man some love.
I know zip about 'points' leagues ..
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Postby ukrneal » Sun Feb 11, 2007 7:04 am

The first thing you need to do is take players and plug them into the setup to see how the numbers come out. Then you can tweak as necessary.

At a glance, it seems like there may be too many negatives for a starting pitcher making them worth less. Hard to tell with so many extra categories. But that is really the hardest part to get right anyway.

Closers may also have less value. But that is something that will become clear when you see how players would have fared the past year or so.
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Postby suckerpuncher » Sun Feb 11, 2007 8:30 am

Thanks for your input so far.

I also forgot to mention that there is a max IP of 60 per week. If you use more than 60 you get -3 points for each additional IP.


@ukrneal
I'll try that but like you said no site got all the cats.

@Lofunzo
I know you're Doc over there. Your avatar is pretty unique. ;-)

@wr
Together with the Austrian and the Swiss guy I think I got 24 people. Do I get 2 T-Shirts? :-D

@JTWood
Please, if you have any useful insights let me know. It takes a lot to make me go crazy. :-b


Before I PM STL Sluggers I just want to make sure that this one is the right guy: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ile&u=4885
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Postby ukrneal » Sun Feb 11, 2007 8:53 am

suckerpuncher wrote:Thanks for your input so far.

I also forgot to mention that there is a max IP of 60 per week. If you use more than 60 you get -3 points for each additional IP.


@ukrneal
I'll try that but like you said no site got all the cats.

@Lofunzo
I know you're Doc over there. Your avatar is pretty unique. ;-)

@wr
Together with the Austrian and the Swiss guy I think I got 24 people. Do I get 2 T-Shirts? :-D

@JTWood
Please, if you have any useful insights let me know. It takes a lot to make me go crazy. :-b


Before I PM STL Sluggers I just want to make sure that this one is the right guy: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ile&u=4885


But one of them will have all the key stats. And if you search hard enough, you may even find the ones you are missing too. It's a pain in the butt, I know, but with points it is the only way to know. And if you don't have a couple of them, it won't change things drastically for the most part. For example, no one balked so much as to totally change their value more than a position or two. Incidentally, the lehman database may have most if not all of this stuff.

And if you want to start with 10-12 players as a test, just take a few players from last year to see how it comes out.
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Postby JTWood » Sun Feb 11, 2007 9:43 am

suckerpuncher wrote:@JTWood
Please, if you have any useful insights let me know. It takes a lot to make me go crazy. :-b


Before I PM STL Sluggers I just want to make sure that this one is the right guy: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ile&u=4885

I'm both JTWood and StlSluggers. They were just playing with you.

I'll chime in sometime tonight.
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Postby suckerpuncher » Sun Feb 11, 2007 10:48 am

JTWood wrote:
suckerpuncher wrote:@JTWood
Please, if you have any useful insights let me know. It takes a lot to make me go crazy. :-b


Before I PM STL Sluggers I just want to make sure that this one is the right guy: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ile&u=4885

I'm both JTWood and StlSluggers. They were just playing with you.

I'll chime in sometime tonight.


I didn't know that.
Doc, you fooled me again. 8-o

Anyway, I can't wait to hear from you. :-)
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Postby StlSluggers » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:02 pm

Before I answer, let me place the caveat that I couldn't account for every little quirk of that system. The pieces I missed, though, were minimal and will not measureably alter this analysis.

Your scoring system seems to favor hitters by a good deal until you account for the fact that you start 9 hitters and only 7 pitchers. At that point, the system tends to be balanced, favoring hitters by only a small margin. That difference grows again, though, because you are forced to start 3 RPs, and your system does not value them too highly. In the end, if you have to pick, hitters are generally the way to go here.

Strategy
Regarding hitters, your league has two things that definitely impact player values: SB-CS & no AB or SO penalty.

You can draft along normal thinking because these categories won't massively alter anything. However, when it comes to deciding between two players, don't rule out guys that strike out a lot but have power (e.g. Adam Dunn). Also, lean towards guys that get you a few SBs while not getting caught. 20 SBs will do nothing for you in this league if the player gets caught 20 times, too. Most importantly, though, when deciding between two players, pick the player who is projected to get more playing time. Without AB penalties, guys with lower averages can still contribute if they're getting more playing time.

Regarding pitchers, let's look at relative value. The top 48 RPs, which is exactly enough to fill your 16 rosters, averaged 264 points over the year. The top 64 SPs averaged 494 points over that same time. Both set of players had the same standard deviations in terms of total points. So... If I told you that you were two investments with the same risk but one could pay you nearly twice as much, which would you take? Good answer.

Conclusion
There really won't be a lot of difference between how you would draft for this league compared to other leagues. Draft reliable hitters early. They will product more points. However, take Johan in a heartbeat if he slips to 7th overall. He's worth 1-1/2 starters or 3 relievers!

After getting a few good hitters, start drafting high-K pitchers before moving on to relievers. My draft in this league would look like a pitcher sandwich with the bread being hitters. The nice part about having a deeper hitting requirement is that low-tier hitters are often indistinguishable from their WW counterparts. You should be able to grab quite a few guys pretty late to fill that 9th spot in your hitting lineup.

Good luck!
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Postby Snakes Gould » Mon Feb 12, 2007 5:10 pm

JTWood wrote:
suckerpuncher wrote:@JTWood
Please, if you have any useful insights let me know. It takes a lot to make me go crazy. :-b


Before I PM STL Sluggers I just want to make sure that this one is the right guy: http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/foru ... ile&u=4885

I'm both JTWood and StlSluggers. They were just playing with you.

I'll chime in sometime tonight.


wait....why are you both??? :-? :-? :-? :-?
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