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Postby Tokugawa » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:48 pm

Thanks for the feedback. So late in a draft who is the better option, Chavez, Chad Tracy or perhaps even Beltre (who had a pretty good second half)
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Postby Havok1517 » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:52 pm

If he's healthy, of course he rebounds majorly.
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Postby kimchi_chigae » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:00 pm

cordscords wrote:.270 - .280, 25-30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB


Optimistic man. ;-D

If this were 2003, I could see him put up those numbers, but unfortunately I don't think that is Chavez anymore.

I can see him improving his AVG from last year, but don't expect him to hit around .280. I'd be surprised if he reaches .275. As for the power, definitely not 30HRs, especially if he misses any time.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:01 pm

kimchi_chigae wrote:
cordscords wrote:.270 - .280, 25-30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB


Optimistic man. ;-D

If this were 2003, I could see him put up those numbers, but unfortunately I don't think that is Chavez anymore.

I can see him improving his AVG from last year, but don't expect him to hit around .280. I'd be surprised if he reaches .275. As for the power, definitely not 30HRs, especially if he misses any time.


He was on fire until he got hurt last year. He'll hit 30+ easily if he is healthy with a decent BA.
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Postby StlSluggers » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:07 pm

The guy's BA and ISO have dropped nearly every year since 2001 (2003 is the minor exception).

Granted, his BABIP was a little low last year, but I'd tread very, very carefully. Nothing in his numbers scream, "Rebound!"
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Postby cordscords » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:11 pm

Yoda wrote:
kimchi_chigae wrote:
cordscords wrote:.270 - .280, 25-30 HR, 100 RBI, 90 R, 5 SB


Optimistic man. ;-D

If this were 2003, I could see him put up those numbers, but unfortunately I don't think that is Chavez anymore.

I can see him improving his AVG from last year, but don't expect him to hit around .280. I'd be surprised if he reaches .275. As for the power, definitely not 30HRs, especially if he misses any time.


He was on fire until he got hurt last year. He'll hit 30+ easily if he is healthy with a decent BA.


The last time he cracked 30 dingers was 2002, and he's played the whole season 2 out of the last 4 years. He won't hit 30+ easily.

And I don't think I'm being optomistic. Those are the stats he was averaging over the last few years before his down season. He's 29, he battled injuries, and suffered some bad luck (.262 BABIP). Chavez still has a long and productive career ahead of him.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:27 pm

cordscords wrote:
The last time he cracked 30 dingers was 2002, and he's played the whole season 2 out of the last 4 years. He won't hit 30+ easily.


Well, he hit 29 in 03. It's not 30 but close enough.

Last 3 years HR/AB:
22/485
27/625
29/475

Except for 05, which was a disappointing season, looks like he was easily on track for 30 given enough ABs so I'll stick to what I said before. If healthy, he'll hit 30 easily.
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