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How do you convert projections to rankings?

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Postby jfg » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:51 am

TheRock wrote:mlb.com

Check the values off to the right near the bottom of the page. I plugged them in a spreadsheet with my projections and they gave me darn near what I would have expected to see. Only for 5x5. For other formats you're going to have to run std deviations.


I say this all the time but that focuses way too much on SB. It's one category and doesn't deserve double the attention. In my opinion it deserves no attention and championships can be won easier forgetting about them in head to head and can be worried about at a later time in roto.
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Postby TheRock » Thu Feb 08, 2007 1:44 am

jfg wrote:
TheRock wrote:mlb.com

Check the values off to the right near the bottom of the page. I plugged them in a spreadsheet with my projections and they gave me darn near what I would have expected to see. Only for 5x5. For other formats you're going to have to run std deviations.


I say this all the time but that focuses way too much on SB. It's one category and doesn't deserve double the attention. In my opinion it deserves no attention and championships can be won easier forgetting about them in head to head and can be worried about at a later time in roto.


Not really what the formula is saying, but point taken. The formulas they give are just normalizing the numbers. I.e., a typical roto team will score on order of 900 or so runs and rbi's, but the steals and HR races will be won by 200 and some.

Seriously, plug their numbers in Excel with your projections and see what you get. It's not bad, and likely close to what you're using.

But I agree with you on steals. Forget them in H2H and don't go nuts chasing them in roto.
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Postby number9 » Thu Feb 08, 2007 2:45 am

I'm tempted to more or less go with the PrOPS and xFIP rankings from last year for players who are assured of starting jobs this year, with a few adjustments made manually to the rankings to compensate for age/breakout/injuries, etc. (Don't plan on spending as much time in analysis for this year's drafts..)
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/
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Postby McCarroll21 » Thu Feb 08, 2007 5:58 am

Thanks guys. I used z-scores to do it and came out with what I would expect. After getting a z-score, I multiplied all of them to better show tiers since the gap would be larger.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Thu Feb 08, 2007 10:51 am

Here's an old post I made with my system. Since then, a lot of people have refined the system a little bit better, but it does explain the methods pretty in-depth, and you should at least be able to use this to figure out what kind of formulas to put into excel:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=24577

Here's another one that's ostensibly about relievers, but gives some explanation of the methods:

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=39496&highlight=calculations


Again, some of my methods have been improved on by other members. It's a combination of the fact that 4 years have passed (and a lot of progress can be made in 4 years), and that a lot of people have researched the methods that are used by more professional fantasy sites (i.e. well-funded sites where people get paid to do this stuff), which I didn't have access to when I started those threads. I'm actually surprised that the pros use some of the same methods as I figured out independently.

Anyway, I've been changing the way I do my statistics, but this year's sheet isn't quite ready yet, so no new info to post.
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Postby Cooner » Thu Feb 08, 2007 3:25 pm

there is only one answer... VORP

Do some searching and you'll find several other threads discussing it...
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Postby Wyatt » Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:06 am

Hey can someone post a simple formula to plug into excel? If you don't want to post at least send me a message. I looked at the one on MLB & not sure how you turn AVG , ERA , & WHIP into a number. Any help would be appreciated.
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Postby Ender » Fri Feb 09, 2007 11:56 am

Just to give a counter argument, I don't think VORP is a good method for ranking players. You don't want to know how good your players are compared to a FA, you want to know how good they are compared to the players on other peoples team. That is why I look at standard deviation of points based on position and add it into my rankings.

It sort of creates its own tier ranking for players instead of just upping every 2B by a certain amount. Utley is incredibly valuable because of how much better he is than the other 2B but once you get down to the 4th or 5th best 2B they really aren't a lot different than the 10th or 11th so any VORP method is going to do a bad job ranking 2B compared to other positions in my opinion.
Last edited by Ender on Fri Feb 09, 2007 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby J35J » Fri Feb 09, 2007 12:15 pm

Wyatt wrote:Hey can someone post a simple formula to plug into excel? If you don't want to post at least send me a message. I looked at the one on MLB & not sure how you turn AVG , ERA , & WHIP into a number. Any help would be appreciated.



You've got mail...... errr PM ;-D



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Postby Wyatt » Fri Feb 09, 2007 3:22 pm

Thanks Anybody else care to share
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