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Young pitchers...the good and the bad

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Young pitchers...the good and the bad

Postby King Of Kings » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:08 pm

Here is a list of twenty young pitchers (25years old or less), to target in middle-to-late rounds and who could be studs or duds depending on few factors.

MATT GARZA

Good: He dominated the minors and should have learned the lesson from last year
Bad: He may not get a spot in the rotation and the numbers could very well be similar to last year's stats.

JOSH JOHNSON

Good: He impressed last year and this season the Marlins should be even better giving him maybe even more wins.
Bad: His WHIP wasn't great and could face a second year slump

ANIBAL SANCHEZ

Good: Another Marlin, same point. The team should give him even more runs to work with. Dominant as a rookie.
Bad: There are injury concerns. Second year slump to fear again.

SCOTT OLSEN

Good: Lot of Strikeouts and he should have again a good number of wins like last season
Bad: Not as dominant as his two teammates, ERA and WHIP aren't great.

MATT CAIN

Good: He is a strikeout pitcher, could get 200 with a full season
Bad: His ERA isn't great and the Giants' offense is bad so losses will come

JUSTIN VERLANDER

Good: The Tigers should give him a high number of wins
Bad: He was bad in the second part of the season

JEREMY SOWERS

Good: He showed a good poise and posted two shutouts...dominant at times
Bad: He is not a strikeout pitcher and that could cause problems. Batters usually adjust to a second year pitcher. Slump?

CHAD BILLINGSLEY

Good: He knows how to get out of jams
Bad: He usually puts himself in a jam...1.67 WHIP is awful

IAN SNELL

Good: 14 wins and 169 strikeouts last season, should be even more this year.
Bad: Terrible ERA (4.74) and WHIP (1.46), playing with the Pirates should see his share of losses

ZACH DUKE

Good: He was marvelous two years ago and decent last year after the all-star
Bad: He was terrible in the first part of the season and again, Pirates means losses

CHUCK JAMES

Good: The guy looked fantastic at times
Bad: Second half was worse than first part of the season. The teams in the Braves' division are starting to get better and better.

RICH HARDEN (Harden makes the list only because he will probably slip few rounds because of his injury history)

Good: A phenom when healthy
Bad: There's a good chance (99%) he won't stay healthy more than few games

ZACK GREINKE

Good: He was terrific as a rookie and he has the stuff to be an ace
Bad: He plays with the Royals and no one knows if he is effectively back after the depression that hit him last year

RICH HILL

Good: Unbelievable post All-Stars numbers...the guy can pitch.
Bad: What if the numbers will be more like the ones he had in the first part of the season?

ADAM WAINWRIGHT

Good: Otstanding stats as the team's closer. Playoff experience should help.
Bad: Starting in the majors is a totally different thing...can he get the job done?

JOHN MAINE

Good: He had a terrific year and the Mets' offense should give him wins
Bad: Second year slump behind the corner?

ERVIN SANTANA

Good: He will win games
Bad: The Angels' bats are not that great and his ERA is over 4.00

JERED WEAVER

Good: As for his teammate Santana, Weaver will win his share of games. He was outstanding in his rookie season, terrific WHIP, unbelievable ERA, good strikeout numbers.
Bad: Possible secon year slump. People will overpay for him, he could somehow disappoint the high expectations surrounding him

TIM LINCECUM

Good: Silly stuff, the guy will dominate
Bad: He will start the years in the minors, no one knows when he'llbe called up. Is he worth a roster spot early?

PHILIP HUGHES

Good: He is doing great in the minors, will do the same once called up. The Yankees would give him lot of wins too.
Bad: Will he get called up this season? Is he worth a spot from the start?


Ok the list is over....20 young arms who cold help you win the title this year. Please note that Cole Hamels, Scott Kazmir and Felix Hernandez are not included in this list because they will likely get drafted early. Also, Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo and Luke Hochevar are not included in the list because they likely won't be a fact this year.

Time to hear your opinions ;-D
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:24 pm

Matt Garza :-? Good rep, but no outstanding pitch

Josh Johnson ;-D Decent rep, great division and park to pitch in

Anibal Sanchez :-? -honestly don't know enough to comment

Scott Olsen ;-D ;-D ;-D -I have a sig bet already. He will be a star.

Matt Cain ;-D ;-D -W could be troubling, but otherwise would be very good.

Verlander :-t -Don't think he's going in the mid round at all, and I don't like the value where he's drafted

Sowers :-t -Finess lefties in the AL Central=bad news. I like Sowers, but it will take a while.

Billingsley ;-D -really just a gut feeling but I believe he can be pretty good

Snell :-t -Ws are fluky, ERA was okay last year, room to improve but not really anything to get too excited about

Duke ;-D -I wouldn't over reach for it but a good value pick if late enough

Chuck James :-? -really indifferent about him, he'll be okay...

Harden :-? -I don't have a crystal ball on his health and I don't believe he'll fall that far in drafts

Greinke :-? -he's not worth drafting in standard redraft. Simply because he doesn't have a rotation spot now. The potential is still there but you can find a lot of potentials on WW.

Hill :-? -I liked him a lot when he was struggling, now that everyones so high on him I'm not so sure anymore. He's the type of pitcher who would give up a lot of HRs. Overall a good fantasy #3, nothing more.

Wainwright :-? -I don't know enough about him to comment

John Maine :-? -expect some decline on ERA and WHIP, but overall a solid end rotation type in fantasy.

Ervin Santana :-t -2 straight years and I don't see much progress. This COULD be the year, but so could last year.

Jered Weaver ;-D -I'm surprised he doesn't get as much hype as the Cole Hamels or the Matt Cains of the world. He was excellent last year, he was excellent in the minors. He can pitch. Aside from having some trouble with HR, he'll be excellent, not Cy Young excellent. But #2 or one of the best #3 fantasy SP excellent.

Tim Lincecum :-? -I love him, see sig. But there's no definite time table on him and unless the league is big, I wouldn't waste a roster spot on him.

Hughes :-? -See Lincecum
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Re: Young pitchers...the good and the bad

Postby mak1277 » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:29 pm

King Of Kings wrote:JOSH JOHNSON

Good: He impressed last year and this season the Marlins should be even better giving him maybe even more wins.
Bad: His WHIP wasn't great and could face a second year slump

ANIBAL SANCHEZ

Good: Another Marlin, same point. The team should give him even more runs to work with. Dominant as a rookie.
Bad: There are injury concerns. Second year slump to fear again.

SCOTT OLSEN

Good: Lot of Strikeouts and he should have again a good number of wins like last season
Bad: Not as dominant as his two teammates, ERA and WHIP aren't great.


First, I wouldn't necessarily assume that the Marlins will be better this year than last. In fact, I'd be more comfortable wagering on fewer wins than last year, vs. more. Second, I personally will take Olsen over the other two. I'm not sure how he is "not as dominant" as the other two. From last year, Olsen had the best K/9 ratio (8.27) when compared to Johnson (7.62) and Sanchez (5.67).

King Of Kings wrote:CHAD BILLINGSLEY

Good: He knows how to get out of jams
Bad: He usually puts himself in a jam...1.67 WHIP is awful


My biggest worry is that he won't even make the opening day rotation.

King Of Kings wrote:Also, Homer Bailey, Yovani Gallardo and Luke Hochevar are not included in the list because they likely won't be a fact this year.


I'm not sure how you can say Bailey won't be a factor. Sure, he's going to start in AAA, but I think he's just as likely as Lincecum (for example) to be a major contributor in the Bigs this year.
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Postby mak1277 » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:32 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:Snell :-t -Ws are fluky, ERA was okay last year, room to improve but not really anything to get too excited about

Duke ;-D -I wouldn't over reach for it but a good value pick if late enough


Snell is the guy that could be an ace....not Duke. Especially for fantasy, I don't like Duke at all. He has the same ERA/WHIP problems as Snell, without the upside of a great K/9 ratio (8.2 for Snell, 4.9 for Duke).
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:34 pm

PlayingWithFire wrote:Matt Garza :-? Good rep, but no outstanding pitch

Josh Johnson ;-D Decent rep, great division and park to pitch in

Anibal Sanchez :-? -honestly don't know enough to comment

Scott Olsen ;-D ;-D ;-D -I have a sig bet already. He will be a star.

Matt Cain ;-D ;-D -W could be troubling, but otherwise would be very good.

Verlander :-t -Don't think he's going in the mid round at all, and I don't like the value where he's drafted

Sowers :-t -Finess lefties in the AL Central=bad news. I like Sowers, but it will take a while.

Billingsley ;-D -really just a gut feeling but I believe he can be pretty good

Snell :-t -Ws are fluky, ERA was okay last year, room to improve but not really anything to get too excited about

Duke ;-D -I wouldn't over reach for it but a good value pick if late enough

Chuck James :-? -really indifferent about him, he'll be okay...

Harden :-? -I don't have a crystal ball on his health and I don't believe he'll fall that far in drafts

Greinke :-? -he's not worth drafting in standard redraft. Simply because he doesn't have a rotation spot now. The potential is still there but you can find a lot of potentials on WW.

Hill :-? -I liked him a lot when he was struggling, now that everyones so high on him I'm not so sure anymore. He's the type of pitcher who would give up a lot of HRs. Overall a good fantasy #3, nothing more.

Wainwright :-? -I don't know enough about him to comment

John Maine :-? -expect some decline on ERA and WHIP, but overall a solid end rotation type in fantasy.

Ervin Santana :-t -2 straight years and I don't see much progress. This COULD be the year, but so could last year.

Jered Weaver ;-D -I'm surprised he doesn't get as much hype as the Cole Hamels or the Matt Cains of the world. He was excellent last year, he was excellent in the minors. He can pitch. Aside from having some trouble with HR, he'll be excellent, not Cy Young excellent. But #2 or one of the best #3 fantasy SP excellent.

Tim Lincecum :-? -I love him, see sig. But there's no definite time table on him and unless the league is big, I wouldn't waste a roster spot on him.

Hughes :-? -See Lincecum


Ervin was cruising last year until he got injured. Still, he improved from 05 and I think he will be a pretty good sleeper this year.
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Postby PlayingWithFire » Wed Feb 07, 2007 7:35 pm

am I wrong to think Hong-Chih Kuo could do something pretty impressive this year?(but has about the same chance of completely falling apart.)
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Postby Pirates4Life » Wed Feb 07, 2007 8:18 pm

By midseason, people are going to realize that Tom Gorzelanny belongs on a list like this one.
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Postby King Of Kings » Thu Feb 08, 2007 3:07 am

How about Jason Hirsh? Don't know much about him...could he be any good?
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Postby Pedantic » Thu Feb 08, 2007 8:48 am

PlayingWithFire wrote:Matt Garza :-? Good rep, but no outstanding pitch


Fastball?

Kuo isn't even in the Dodgers' rotation, AFAIK. He'll be hard-pressed to find any room during the season, too. Even if he did manage to find a few innings, his upside for the next year is still rather limited.
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Postby J35J » Thu Feb 08, 2007 11:46 am

PlayingWithFire wrote:Matt Garza :-? Good rep, but no outstanding pitch



Actually all of his pitches are outstanding or has the potential to be, the problem is he can't throw them for strikes or doesn't know "when or where" to throw them.

.....I guess that makes his pitches less than outstanding if he can't locate :-b but his pure stuff is quite good, IMO!

I don't think he will do much this year but I can see a nice season out of him in '08.

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