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Am I crazy for thinking HAFNER belongs mid first round?

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Postby Pogotheostrich » Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:53 pm

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the HBP as freak injuries. Also Hafner has had chronic problems with his right elbow.
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Postby Rhydderch » Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:54 pm

No one has asked this, but its so important. What league are you in and how many teams.

Two points I'd like to make are

1. Position elgibility. Everyone has mentioned this, but its nice to have flexibility here. Your league has a ton of playing positions, so if theres 12 teams (since your talking mid first round this seems right)your waiver wire is going to be bare. It be easy if you lost a first baseman, to plug in a utility guy then grab the best available hitter.

2. Hafner does lose games every year to interleague play

I still put Pujos, Reyes, Soriano, Santana, AROD, Howard, Utley, Crawford (SB will be a premium), Miggy, Beltran, Vlad (esp. if you have RF spot as opposed to just OF) and David Wright ahead of him. I'd also take Berkman just because he has multiple eligibilty.
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Postby EugeneStyles » Wed Feb 07, 2007 2:56 pm

DevilDriver wrote:
EugeneStyles wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:I think the only thing keeping him out of the first round is his position eligibility and health concern.


I don't know about that... I think that's two things.


Thing about Hafner - in a league with only one Util slot, he cuts down on your flexibility a lot, and really alters what you can do in the rest of the draft. Assuming he's healthy, though, he's definitely worth it. Late 1st round or early 2nd doesn't seem excessive for him. Personally, I like the flexibility of the Util slot and am unlikely to take him unless he's still hanging around in the late 2nd round.

Position eligibility involves the same thing you mentioned.


??? I didn't say that it didn't...
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Postby DevilDriver » Wed Feb 07, 2007 3:01 pm

EugeneStyles wrote:
DevilDriver wrote:
EugeneStyles wrote:
chadlincoln wrote:I think the only thing keeping him out of the first round is his position eligibility and health concern.


I don't know about that... I think that's two things.

Thing about Hafner - in a league with only one Util slot, he cuts down on your flexibility a lot, and really alters what you can do in the rest of the draft. Assuming he's healthy, though, he's definitely worth it. Late 1st round or early 2nd doesn't seem excessive for him. Personally, I like the flexibility of the Util slot and am unlikely to take him unless he's still hanging around in the late 2nd round.

Position eligibility involves the same thing you mentioned.


??? I didn't say that it didn't...

I thought that's what you meant with the first part... I probably misinterpreted it then. !+)
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Postby EugeneStyles » Wed Feb 07, 2007 3:28 pm

DevilDriver wrote:
EugeneStyles wrote:??? I didn't say that it didn't...

I thought that's what you meant with the first part... I probably misinterpreted it then. !+)


Oh... No, I just meant that I don't think that the "only thing" keeping him down was two things. It's a logical impossibility. !+)
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Postby DK » Wed Feb 07, 2007 3:35 pm

Basically the reasons stated in here are why he's not a first-rounder.

In terms of production, he is top 5-10. But you can't bank on him to play more than 140-145 games, so you're going to lose production based on that.

To put it in extreme terms, it's like if a player hits 65 home runs and 125 per 162 games, but has a strict religious belief that working after July 15th is equivalent to lining yourself up with Satan, the production you'll get out of him is not going to be equivalent to 65-125 over 162 (which is easy first-round), you'll get 30-70 over 90 games (which would go in the third, fourth or fifth most likely).

That and the position eligibility bumps him down to the second round IMO.
If he played first base and 155 games a year, he'd be a no-doubt first rounder. But it's not all about raw production; playing time is a big factor as well.
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Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:51 pm

The original poster indicated that he has 3 Utility spots... but a lot of the people who said he wasn't worth a 1st rounder used DH position eligibility as a rationale... so with MORE than one Utility spot available, does that move Hafner up to the 1st round in most people's minds? I've been debating the same thing myself as I pick 11th out of 12 in my draft (with only Howard and Utley being kept and not available), and its close... right now I'm inclined to say he is worth a 1st rounder in that case.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:04 pm

I think he is a first rounder. His numbers the last two years suggest that he is a first rounder.

People are putting a lot of stock in his health which I think is overblown. Position argument is pretty weak since he is a legit .300, 35 HR guy and most leagues have a utility position that you need to fill anyway. You lose some flexibility but who cares if the guy is reliable and will give you that kind of production in your lineup?

Anyway, I think people will put him somewhere in the 2nd round due to his health history and position but he will produce like a 1st rounder.
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Postby bigwords » Wed Feb 07, 2007 7:02 pm

Out of curiosity, can somebody make the case for me that Travis Hafner deserves to be drafted higher or bid for more money than David Ortiz. Pronk is two years younger. That's about the only advantage I can think of at the moment. But I'm willing to keep an open mind.
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Postby The_Met_Threat » Wed Feb 07, 2007 7:14 pm

Firstly, the health concerns are all overblown. He has a chronic elbow problem that effects his throwing arm (right arm), and has no effect on his hitting whatsoever. The past two seasons he hasnt reached 140+ games because of being hit by pitches aka freak accidents. I think he could easily come up with 150 this year, and its even possible he gets the 5 starts at 1b during inter league play (he got 4 last year).

However, to the recent post, i think you gotta go with Ortiz rather than Hafner in a draft. Ortiz has Manny protecting him and also driving him in. Also has a better park. They're very close though.
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