Beltre Syndrome

[Yoda]

Some interesting choices so far...

Dye is a very good one. I can't imagine he will be a top 15 player again. Should hit for 30+ HRs but I expect a big dropoff as well.

I think Atkins will disappoint also but not to Beltre's level.

I am going to throw Hanley Ramirez out there. I think he is a great talent but will see a noticeable dropoff in production.

[J35J]

I was going to say Hanley as well.

Uggla would be another



Gut feeling more than anything else..... I kinda think B. Webb will fall back a decent amount this year.



Jason

[Amazinz]

Most of us know too well: the rise and fall of Beltre. So who will be the biggest goat of 07?

Though not because he doesn't possess the tools, but Jose Reyes could end up being a goat if his hammy issues pop up this year. Especially for someone who invests a #2, #3, or #4 pick on him after one full year injury free.

Actually it's 2 full seasons. Reyes has played 300+ games without the hamstring injuries that plagued him early in his career.

[thedude]

Three words: Gary Mattews Jr.

[DevilDriver]

I like the Morneau pick as well

I'd also go with Jose Reyes




Jason

I agree with both points, although I don't see Reyes having a goat season, just one where he falls short of most people's expectations (closer to '05 numbers).

[RugbyD]

Big new contract? check

History of injury? check

Perceived to be lazy? check

Aramis Ramierez ladies and gents.

big disagreement here. while th 3 conditions listed are definitely present, you leave the most important one out. ARam has been consistently succesful whereas Beltre was consistently marginal except for one year. Given that player performance is generally assumed to be mean-reverting, Aramis will be just fine and Beltre will be sucky again.

[Another Blown Save]

I guess I'll be the first one to mention Mr. Alfonso Soriano.

[thedude]

I guess I'll be the first one to mention Mr. Alfonso Soriano.

I am avoiding him early this year.

[Pogotheostrich]

I guess I'll be the first one to mention Mr. Alfonso Soriano.

I think he'll be a disappointment to all those expecting him to repeat or better last year but I don't think he collapses like Beltre did.

[Fade2White12]

I think Morneau's Avg and 130 RBI last season may be a bit high, but I hardly think he'll be a goat. He always was a top prospect, and was simply one year late on his breakout season. He might lost 15 points BA and 10 RBI, but I think he will increase his Run totals as well as equal or surpass his HRs.

My vote is for Howard and Webb