Make Your Case: Matt Cain vs. Cole Hamels

[TurdFerguson]

Cain for me. Their ceilings seem pretty equal to me.Park and division would be the deciding factor.

[Element]

I'm taking Hamels. I don't think you can go wrong with either, but Hamels ratios in the 2nd half last year blew me away. His changeup is one of the best in the league and despite an average 90 mph fastball, he can log tremendous strikeout numbers. He'll have a better offense behind him which should result in more wins. Because of injuries, Cain is the safer pick, but you don't win your league by being safe. Plus, even if Hamels only pitches 160 innings, they will be stellar innings. Someone will be in your rotation when he isn't. So really, it's Hamels + DL Fill In. I don't mind taking injury prone players for that very reason.

[ukrneal]

Another thing that I see working in favor of Hamels is that he has far less mileage on his arm due to the time he missed in the minors with various injuries. I know it may sound crazy but I think the lighter workload Hamels had to carry will help him stay healthier in the future.

As for Hamels tiring out, he pitched 180 IP and got much stronger at the end. I don't see why that should even be a concern at this point.

Again, this is like being asked to choose my favorite child for me. I love them both but unless you are in a keeper, I would go with Hamels for 07.

Young pitchers who pitch an entire season for the first time (like Verlander) typically tire in August and their numbers worsen. If he had a lighter workload than usual, then while his injury risk may be lesser, the risk he can't handle 200+ innings at the MLB in hot, humid August and the pressure of September is higher. It doesn't mean he will succumb, but only 132 innings were at the MLB level. That still leaves him succeptible to lack of physical and mental strength later in the season. It's not a reason to avoid him, just something that will make his numbers worse than most are predicting.

Cain has gone through two full seasons and this won't be an issue for him.

[Yoda]

Another thing that I see working in favor of Hamels is that he has far less mileage on his arm due to the time he missed in the minors with various injuries. I know it may sound crazy but I think the lighter workload Hamels had to carry will help him stay healthier in the future.

As for Hamels tiring out, he pitched 180 IP and got much stronger at the end. I don't see why that should even be a concern at this point.

Again, this is like being asked to choose my favorite child for me. I love them both but unless you are in a keeper, I would go with Hamels for 07.

Young pitchers who pitch an entire season for the first time (like Verlander) typically tire in August and their numbers worsen. If he had a lighter workload than usual, then while his injury risk may be lesser, the risk he can't handle 200+ innings at the MLB in hot, humid August and the pressure of September is higher. It doesn't mean he will succumb, but only 132 innings were at the MLB level. That still leaves him succeptible to lack of physical and mental strength later in the season. It's not a reason to avoid him, just something that will make his numbers worse than most are predicting.

Cain has gone through two full seasons and this won't be an issue for him.

I hear you but considering Hamels' best two months came in Aug and Sep by far, I don't see how you can argue he will tire next season. He missed maybe 3 starts at the most during the season and then cruised after that.

If you want to go with Cain, then I can't argue with you but I don't think Hamels tiring is a good reason.