Cole Hamels- Better K/9 will get more wins. He has so much potential, as he showed last season. His curveball is unbelievable.
This is from CBS Sportsline:
The Phillies found some pitching in the form of the long-time phenom who finally kicked his freak injury woes (he once broke his hand in a Bull Durham-like bar fight). The rookie was one of the best stories in a year of rookies and enters 2007 assured of a rotation spot for a potential contender with a solid lineup to back him. You have to stay cautious of Hamels' lightly tested arm, but if he can stay healthy for a full season in the big leagues, you might have a superstar Fantasy ace on your hands.
Cain "should", if healthy, get 200+ innings this year.
Hamels will probably be taken a little slower this year because of his injured past and the lack of innings he has thrown the last few years. Less innings means less stats (W and SO totals) I'd expect 170-180 innings IF healthy.
I think they are both equally talented, but for this year I'm going to go with Cain because I know he is at a point where he can take on a decent work load (190+ IP the last 2 seasons) and to my knowledge hasn't had any significant injuries to worry about.
.... oh yeah, Cain has an easier division to deal with and a better home pitchers park!
Give me Cain in '07........ you'll have to get back to me in regards to '08 and beyond
Man, this is a close one. I have a feeling it would depend on the makeup of my team at that point and what I plan on doing the rest of the way out. I think Cain is the more "safe" pick, as other pointed out. I lean towards Hamels overall though. That 145 K in 132 IP last year is impressive. Even if Hamels only goes ~180 IP, that projects out to ~198 K. He's on a better team (in my opinion), and has more upside (again, in my opinion).
But, like I said, if I had already drafted, say, Ben Sheets, I would probably take Cain between the two to be a little safer. It's so close I think I would play it situationally.
I'll take Hamels by a hair. I think that even though he won't log as many innings, he'll post better era/whip and a slightly better K/BB. (less K's though) W-L could be a wash, and has a lot of other factors involved.