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Young Pitchers, HIGH upside, more than normal?

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Do you guys think

This is like ever other year
6
26%
There are more than usual
16
70%
There are less than usual.
1
4%
 
Total votes : 23

Postby Another Blown Save » Mon Feb 05, 2007 8:11 pm

pokeyjoe wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:I think it pretty much stays the same every year.
In 06 there were plenty of "sleeper" pitchers. It's just that at the end of the year, many of these so called "sleepers" end up being busts.

These are some of the pitchers that I remember being hyped pre-06.
Rich Harden (bust)
Felix Hernandez (bust)
Ben Sheets (bust)
Brandon Webb (stud)
John Lackey (stud)
Daniel Cabrera (bust)
Noah Lowry (bust)
Zach Duke (bust)
Francisco Liriano (stud)
Chris Young (stud)
etc.


You can add a few more to that.

Hamels (eh...breaking even I guess)
Jered Weaver (stud)

Well to be fair, I don't think too many people had Hamels or Jered Weaver on their cheat sheets during the 06 draft (at least, I know I didn't)
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Postby Havok1517 » Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:07 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:I think it pretty much stays the same every year.
In 06 there were plenty of "sleeper" pitchers. It's just that at the end of the year, many of these so called "sleepers" end up being busts.

These are some of the pitchers that I remember being hyped pre-06.
Rich Harden (bust)
Felix Hernandez (bust)
Ben Sheets (bust)
Brandon Webb (stud)
John Lackey (stud)
Daniel Cabrera (bust)
Noah Lowry (bust)
Zach Duke (bust)
Francisco Liriano (stud)
Chris Young (stud)
etc.


Are you labeling these guys busts or studs already? Or are you just applying it the season prior to the hype? If you are labeling them wow, what a short-sighted "what are you doing for me now" post. A lot of these guys are in their early 20's and all are under 30. Pretty pompous. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY to early to call any of these guys bust or studs, lol. Liriano was good for about half of a year and is out for the entire 2007 season while recovering elbow surgery and he's a stud! HAHA
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Postby Another Blown Save » Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:17 pm

Havok1517 wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:I think it pretty much stays the same every year.
In 06 there were plenty of "sleeper" pitchers. It's just that at the end of the year, many of these so called "sleepers" end up being busts.

These are some of the pitchers that I remember being hyped pre-06.
Rich Harden (bust)
Felix Hernandez (bust)
Ben Sheets (bust)
Brandon Webb (stud)
John Lackey (stud)
Daniel Cabrera (bust)
Noah Lowry (bust)
Zach Duke (bust)
Francisco Liriano (stud)
Chris Young (stud)
etc.


Are you labeling these guys busts or studs already? Or are you just applying it the season prior to the hype? If you are labeling them wow, what a short-sighted "what are you doing for me now" post. A lot of these guys are in their early 20's and all are under 30. Pretty pompous. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY to early to call any of these guys bust or studs, lol. Liriano was good for about half of a year and is out for the entire 2007 season while recovering elbow surgery and he's a stud! HAHA

No, the main point of my post was that every year there are similar numbers of "sleeper" pitchers that people like to target.

I believe that only reason why people think there were less "sleeper" pitchers in the past (or more this year) is because many of these "sleeper" pitchers tend to end up being bust.

Take Felix for example. Many people were high on him after his phenomenal rookie season and many thought that 06 would be a breakout year for him. Similar goes for guys like Duke, Lowry, Cliff Lee, Cain, etc. But in the end, only few of these pitchers end up living up to their expectations (Webb, Lackey, etc.).
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Postby eftda » Mon Feb 05, 2007 10:34 pm

Another Blown Save wrote:
pokeyjoe wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:I think it pretty much stays the same every year.
In 06 there were plenty of "sleeper" pitchers. It's just that at the end of the year, many of these so called "sleepers" end up being busts.

These are some of the pitchers that I remember being hyped pre-06.
Rich Harden (bust)
Felix Hernandez (bust)
Ben Sheets (bust)
Brandon Webb (stud)
John Lackey (stud)
Daniel Cabrera (bust)
Noah Lowry (bust)
Zach Duke (bust)
Francisco Liriano (stud)
Chris Young (stud)
etc.


You can add a few more to that.

Hamels (eh...breaking even I guess)
Jered Weaver (stud)

Well to be fair, I don't think too many people had Hamels or Jered Weaver on their cheat sheets during the 06 draft (at least, I know I didn't)


Weaver was on my sheet for 06 ;-) I won't tell you who i have for my 08. B-) All i can say is: stud in the A's farm system. Anywho, you can add Cain to that list ad call him a stud. You can also label Patterson as a 06 bust.
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Postby Ender » Tue Feb 06, 2007 1:47 pm

Most of the pitchers he listed as busts got hurt which really isn't the same thing. I agree though its pretty much a normal amount. Every year there are a handful of rookie/2nd year pitchers everyone is all excited about, some get hurt, some suck and some end up carrying teams to fantasy championships.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Feb 06, 2007 5:36 pm

Ender wrote:Most of the pitchers he listed as busts got hurt which really isn't the same thing. I agree though its pretty much a normal amount. Every year there are a handful of rookie/2nd year pitchers everyone is all excited about, some get hurt, some suck and some end up carrying teams to fantasy championships.


A little OT but Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus just came out with an interesting number on pitcher injuries. Half of all pitchers get hurt at some point during a three year window. !+)
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Postby Yoda » Tue Feb 06, 2007 5:37 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Ender wrote:Most of the pitchers he listed as busts got hurt which really isn't the same thing. I agree though its pretty much a normal amount. Every year there are a handful of rookie/2nd year pitchers everyone is all excited about, some get hurt, some suck and some end up carrying teams to fantasy championships.


A little OT but Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus just came out with an interesting number on pitcher injuries. Half of all pitchers get hurt at some point during a three year window. !+)


Interesting. I thought that figure would be higher.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Feb 06, 2007 5:46 pm

Yoda wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:
Ender wrote:Most of the pitchers he listed as busts got hurt which really isn't the same thing. I agree though its pretty much a normal amount. Every year there are a handful of rookie/2nd year pitchers everyone is all excited about, some get hurt, some suck and some end up carrying teams to fantasy championships.


A little OT but Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus just came out with an interesting number on pitcher injuries. Half of all pitchers get hurt at some point during a three year window. !+)


Interesting. I thought that figure would be higher.


I was a bit surprised it was that high myself at first. However the definition of 'injured at some point' is simply that the team put the player on the DL. Teams will DL guys now if he's going to miss more than a week so after looking at that it's not too bad of a number.
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Postby pokeyjoe » Tue Feb 06, 2007 6:34 pm

I said Hamels was breaking even but now that I look at it his numbers were quite good. My mistake.
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Postby Rhydderch » Wed Feb 07, 2007 4:01 pm

I'd like to hear a statistic on something like the top 30 ranked pitchers (obviously there'd be some disagreement) and how they performed and the top 100 hitters and how they performed.

This would be a tough thing to do, but if it just considered ranking it would be interesting. I.e. last year most people had AROD first, but his end rankings were low so he underperformed (not taking away the fact he had a great year but people were expecting more).

If you knew pitchers had a tendency to underperform (by injuring or underperforming) you could shape your team by taking hitters and then taking random pitchers at the end.
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