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Make Your Case: A. Ramirez vs. G. Atkins

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Postby slomo007 » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:55 am

Mookie4ever wrote:I have nothing against Atkins but I think that ARam is going to be a beast this year. Look at the Cubs projected lineup:

1. Alfonso Soriano CF
2. Mark DeRosa 2B
3. Derrek Lee 1B
4. Aramis Ramirez 3B
5. Michael Barrett C
6. Jacque Jones RF
7. Matt Murton LF
8. Cesar Izturis SS


From last year you add Soriano and a healthy Lee batting in front of him. Plus I believe that Murton will develop into a quality major league hitter this year and will move up in the order providing better protection for ARam. A quality hitter like ARam hitting in the cleanup spot in this lineup could end up leading the NL in RBI this year.

I predict that ARam will finish the year as the top NL 3rd baseman this year, in front of even MCab and Wright.


Maybe it was just a fluke, but Aram seems to do better when he is the main guy in the lineup. At least last year that seemed to be the case...but of course that could be due to small sample size...and probably is.
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Postby Redlegs » Thu Mar 08, 2007 12:21 pm

so what round do you start drafting either of them?
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Postby JakeTrain72 » Thu Mar 08, 2007 5:34 pm

I think you should look at these guys in the third. I also am still sticking with ARam over Atkins. I am a white Sox fan, but I think the Cubs will rake and Aramis is going to be the biggest benefactor of increased production. Sori's numbers might slightly regress this season and DLee is coming off a lost year due to a wrist and is now farther from his triple crown numbers. But Aramis is the fixture that has been surrounded by improved talent, not too mention the pitching in the NL Central vs. NL West is not as good. Carp, Oswalt and Sheets are about as good as it gets, but you dont face those guys everyday. From top to bottom I think SD/LA/ARI/SF has better pitching than MIL/STL/HOU/CIN/PIT. Atkins isn't far behind, but ARam is in front to me.
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Postby pat1999 » Thu Mar 08, 2007 10:48 pm

i take aramis over atkins simply because that lineup is stacked and he has been putting up the numbers over a longer period of time then atkins

but i dont really want to draft a 3b early because its so deep and u can get guys like chavez,blalock,mora,huff,tracy,crede really late in drafts
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Postby AcidRock23 » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:16 pm

Redlegs wrote:so what round do you start drafting either of them?


ESPN ADP for ARam= 31.5 and Atkins= 191.9, so you can get Atkins waaaay later. I am a huge ARam fan but I have to think that a different pick in the second or third round (we are about 50% Cubs fans in our league, one nutball is already saying he's going to get all the Cubs he can at the auction...) but to me, I'd rather have a different player in the #2/ #3 spot. I would not personally be able to pass on ARam were he there at the end of the second or early third round but I would want to have the willpower to wait for Atkins, maybe grab a stud SP or something like that in the 2/3 round and go for Atkins a bit later. Sacrifice a whiff of power at 3rd for a much better whateveryouget in the second over the similar player later on. I have ignored draft strategy so far, as we are doing an auction but I think that similar principles apply there.
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Postby Yoda » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:17 pm

AcidRock23 wrote:
Redlegs wrote:so what round do you start drafting either of them?


ESPN ADP for ARam= 31.5 and Atkins= 191.9, so you can get Atkins waaaay later. I am a huge ARam fan but I have to think that a different pick in the second or third round (we are about 50% Cubs fans in our league, one nutball is already saying he's going to get all the Cubs he can at the auction...) but to me, I'd rather have a different player in the #2/ #3 spot. I would not personally be able to pass on ARam were he there at the end of the second or early third round but I would want to have the willpower to wait for Atkins, maybe grab a stud SP or something like that in the 2/3 round and go for Atkins a bit later. Sacrifice a whiff of power at 3rd for a much better whateveryouget in the second over the similar player later on. I have ignored draft strategy so far, as we are doing an auction but I think that similar principles apply there.


Not sure where you are getting your ADP but I've done about half dozen drafts and Atkins is going nowhere near 191.9. He's going right around when Aramis is going but that's just based on my personal experience thus far.
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Postby Jackie Treehorn » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:19 pm

ukrneal wrote:I don't entirely understand people here. I understand that Aram could be considered a safer choice. I dont agree, but I understand.

What I don't understand is how Atkins is risky. Many are saying he doesn't have a track record. So why would you take Howard or Reyes or Wright over him (Aram)? These guys have no more track record than Atkins. Why aren't they risky? I can't imagine anyone here taking Atkins or Aram before either of those three (or others like Morneau, Utley, Sizemore, etc.).

Why is Atkins penalized for having ONLY a two-year track record and the others I listed are not? It seems like there is an inconsistency in approach.

Perhaps it's because he is in a small market and doesn't get the attention? I never believed in that, but maybe it does have an effect.


This here dude makes a pretty freakin' good point. Why is Reyes a unanimous top 5? He of the bad hamstring and one year dominance, while the argument of "he only did it for one year, show me more" applies to Atkins.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Thu Mar 08, 2007 11:20 pm

I'm going to wimp out on this one. It depends on what your team needs at that point in the draft. If you're looking to boost your average and runs then you go Atkins. If hr/rbi are more important to you then go Ramirez. Their value is virtually identical so it all depends on your team needs. I decided I was going to build a team that could withstand me taking the chance on Adam Dunn this year so I took Atkins. :-b
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Re: ...

Postby Ender » Fri Mar 09, 2007 1:03 am

Jackie Treehorn wrote:
ukrneal wrote:I don't entirely understand people here. I understand that Aram could be considered a safer choice. I dont agree, but I understand.

What I don't understand is how Atkins is risky. Many are saying he doesn't have a track record. So why would you take Howard or Reyes or Wright over him (Aram)? These guys have no more track record than Atkins. Why aren't they risky? I can't imagine anyone here taking Atkins or Aram before either of those three (or others like Morneau, Utley, Sizemore, etc.).

Why is Atkins penalized for having ONLY a two-year track record and the others I listed are not? It seems like there is an inconsistency in approach.

Perhaps it's because he is in a small market and doesn't get the attention? I never believed in that, but maybe it does have an effect.


This here dude makes a pretty freakin' good point. Why is Reyes a unanimous top 5? He of the bad hamstring and one year dominance, while the argument of "he only did it for one year, show me more" applies to Atkins.


Well in 2005 Reyes earned $29 and Atkins earned $17. There is a pretty huge gap between these guys. Reyes has had a year of 2nd round value followed by a year of 1st round and is at a scarce position. Atkins has had half a year worth anything so far.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Fri Mar 09, 2007 8:08 am

Yoda wrote:
AcidRock23 wrote:Not sure where you are getting your ADP but I've done about half dozen drafts and Atkins is going nowhere near 191.9. He's going right around when Aramis is going but that's just based on my personal experience thus far.



ESPN:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6014

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=7145

I was pretty suprised my that as well and, just from this, would question any use of the ESPN ADP as a meaningful statistic.

At the same time, I have not really seen any source projecting Atkins higher than Ramirez from which I still think that it's safe to say that he can be had a bit later/ cheaper which allows other options in the 2nd round or with your $$$$. OTOH, picking ARam may be indicative of a 3B run and Atkins my fly off right after him, instead of getting around to the next round. It's still cheaper though... :-?
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