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My new mock....

Postby casem2k2 » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:20 pm

Roto Mixed 5X5. 12 teams. i had 2nd pick. What is your opinion of my team?

C: Pierzynski R. Hernandez
1B: Pujols
2B: B. Roberts
3B: Zimmerman Upton
SS: Tejada Peralta
OF: Manny Podsednik Ibanez Duffy Willingham Hermida

P: Peavy Lackey Sheets Escobar E.Santana J.Johnson Jennings Billingsley Tankersley
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Postby BigLebowski » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:54 pm

You had 2nd pick and got Pujols? Who went #1
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:54 pm

I projected this team using Rotowire's projections and my Excel projection tool based on GTWMA's work with examining loads of 12 team standard leagues to find the percentile's for each statistic. If this isn't a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league your mileage may vary.

#'s R: 868 HR: 233 RBI: 853 SB: 136 AVE: 295
%tile R: 70 HR: 70 RBI: 70 SB: 80 AVE: 100
Points R: 9 HR: 9 RBI: 9 SB: 10 AVE: 12 Offense: 44 - 49

#'s W: 89 SV: 4 K: 1088 ERA: 3.63 WHIP: 1.265
%tile W: 70 SV: 0 K: 70 ERA: 80 WHIP: 60
Points W: 9 SV: 1 K: 9 ERA: 10 WHIP: 8 Pitching: 32 - 37

Total Points: 76 - 86

You're strong acrossed the board here. If you're punting saves in a h2h league that makes a bit more sense...in a roto you'd have to really scramble for saves to make things up. Otherwise you've given yourself a good shot at winning 9/10 categories a week in a h2h league. It's a solid all-around team.
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Postby jlm53089 » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:53 pm

The Loveable Losers wrote:I projected this team using Rotowire's projections and my Excel projection tool based on GTWMA's work with examining loads of 12 team standard leagues to find the percentile's for each statistic. If this isn't a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league your mileage may vary.

#'s R: 868 HR: 233 RBI: 853 SB: 136 AVE: 295
%tile R: 70 HR: 70 RBI: 70 SB: 80 AVE: 100
Points R: 9 HR: 9 RBI: 9 SB: 10 AVE: 12 Offense: 44 - 49

#'s W: 89 SV: 4 K: 1088 ERA: 3.63 WHIP: 1.265
%tile W: 70 SV: 0 K: 70 ERA: 80 WHIP: 60
Points W: 9 SV: 1 K: 9 ERA: 10 WHIP: 8 Pitching: 32 - 37

Total Points: 76 - 86

You're strong acrossed the board here. If you're punting saves in a h2h league that makes a bit more sense...in a roto you'd have to really scramble for saves to make things up. Otherwise you've given yourself a good shot at winning 9/10 categories a week in a h2h league. It's a solid all-around team.


how the hell did you make that formula?
it is ingenious. and you have major kudos.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Jan 31, 2007 10:12 pm

jlm53089 wrote:
The Loveable Losers wrote:I projected this team using Rotowire's projections and my Excel projection tool based on GTWMA's work with examining loads of 12 team standard leagues to find the percentile's for each statistic. If this isn't a standard 12 team 5x5 roto league your mileage may vary.

#'s R: 868 HR: 233 RBI: 853 SB: 136 AVE: 295
%tile R: 70 HR: 70 RBI: 70 SB: 80 AVE: 100
Points R: 9 HR: 9 RBI: 9 SB: 10 AVE: 12 Offense: 44 - 49

#'s W: 89 SV: 4 K: 1088 ERA: 3.63 WHIP: 1.265
%tile W: 70 SV: 0 K: 70 ERA: 80 WHIP: 60
Points W: 9 SV: 1 K: 9 ERA: 10 WHIP: 8 Pitching: 32 - 37

Total Points: 76 - 86

You're strong acrossed the board here. If you're punting saves in a h2h league that makes a bit more sense...in a roto you'd have to really scramble for saves to make things up. Otherwise you've given yourself a good shot at winning 9/10 categories a week in a h2h league. It's a solid all-around team.


how the hell did you make that formula?
it is ingenious. and you have major kudos.


Actually, it's not much of a formula at all. GoToWarMissAgnes ran a thread a year or two ago where he collected about 200+ results from different 12 team 5x5 yahoo-style roto leagues. Then he took the results and figured out the 90th, 80th, 70th, etc percentiles for the league. I simply take the projections from Rotowire (and now Baseball Prospectus this year) and compute the team totals based on those projections. Then I see where they fit in (80th percentile for example), multiply that by the total possible points and voila, projected standings. It really wasn't all that hard...just time consuming to get the spreadsheet quick and easy for me to use.
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Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Feb 13, 2007 8:54 pm

Can you share your Excel tool?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Feb 13, 2007 9:15 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Can you share your Excel tool?


I'd have to cut the projections out since they're not mine to give away but I'll see what I can do about getting a zipped copy of the Excel file without the projections up on my web site later tonight.
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Tue Feb 13, 2007 10:44 pm

Here it is:

http://www.llfbb.com/template.zip

I left the layout of the data from BP and Rotowire there. I had to do some pre-processing to get it into a format that I liked but the layout that I left in should show anyone that wants to use this how to do that part. Make sure to look through the formula fields just to get a feel for how I approached things (especially the playing time). I normally project for 162 games played at all positions but catcher and for 1250ip on the pitching side and adjust the games played to make that happen. Since BP didn't include games played I had to cheat a bit and borrow Rotowire's games played to make BP work.

If anyone has any questions on using this feel free to shoot me an email at mailto:theloveablelosers@spasalon.com.
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wow!

Postby benmc5 » Wed Feb 14, 2007 11:01 am

impressive is all i have to say! i love excel and this is awesome! well done, and thanks for sharing...!

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Re: wow!

Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Feb 14, 2007 11:23 am

benmc5 wrote:impressive is all i have to say! i love excel and this is awesome! well done, and thanks for sharing...!

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I'm a big-time Excel junky. I look for any reason I can find to mess around with it whether it be baseball, work or just keeping track of finances. They've got an amazing program with a huge amount of depth to it - I feel like even after several years I'm still learning new things about it every day.
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