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Make Your Case: Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday

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Postby acsguitar » Sat Feb 03, 2007 3:01 am

RJ24VC15 wrote:I'd rather Bay, I think he is undervalued a bit, where Holliday is a little overvalued.


So we are back to square one eh :-D
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Postby The Artful Dodger » Sat Feb 03, 2007 8:08 pm

This reminds me of early last season when I traded Holliday straight up for Bay just before Bay had that explosive surge, but felt that this deal could level off by the end of the season...surely, it did.

I think statistically, Bay and Holliday could wind up being the same player, but the approaches at the plate are a bit different. As noted before, Bay takes his share of walks whereas Holliday had shown signs as a hacker, but the contact rate for Holliday was exceptional. Holliday projects to be a for-average hitter, with a .330 BA being on the high end, but I'd safely put him down for .300. In a debate such as this where one has the edge in valuation based on BA, puts a case of valuation in flux. I don't believe either has peaked.

I believe the case of differentiation in lineup protection is marginal. Obviously if Bay hits 5th and behind Laroche, his valuation takes a bit of a dip, but Holliday gets a slight nod in lineup protection mostly because of the promise of the likes of Helton, Tulowitzki, and Hawpe behind him.

If I had to choose one, I'd say Holliday by a nose, but wouldn't be surprised at the least bit if they both are statistically similar.
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Postby Mercer Boy » Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:05 pm

RynMan wrote:
mak1277 wrote:3) Protection - If Bay hits 5th for the Pirates, then he won't really benefit from the LaRoche acquisition. If LaRoche hits behind him though, I think a bump in stats is going to be the result.


Bay hitting 5th? Who is hitting 3 then?


Right now, the "genius" Jim Tracy plans on this batting order:

Duffy
J. Wilson (:-t)
Sanchez
LaRoche
Bay
Nady
Paulino
Castillo
Pitcher

Apparently he believes in Jack Wilson's ability to hit .300 again...something I do not aspire to. That moves Bay down to 5th. Why he'd want to limit Bay's AB's during the year completely dumbfounds me. I would much rather have Freddy batting 2nd with Bay in the 3 hole followed by LaRoche. It would protect Bay and LaRoche and generate plenty of AB's for our best hitters.

But what do I know...I'm just a Pirates fan...not that I could run the team better than Dave Littlefield or Tracy... :-?
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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:21 pm

Mercer Boy wrote:But what do I know...I'm just a Pirates fan...not that I could run the team better than Dave Littlefield or Tracy... :-?


Actually having a pulse and brain waves qualifies you to run the team better than Littlefield and Tracy. I'm not saying their incompetent but the track record doesn't look very good.
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Postby josebach » Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:38 pm

I've got to go with Holliday. BA was the deciding factor.

For the H2H guys... 15 out of 27 games in September are home games including all 6 games the first week of the fantasy playoffs (9/3-9/9). In addition, the remaining 3 weeks of the playoffs all have at least one home series.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Feb 07, 2007 5:40 pm

josebach wrote: In addition, the remaining 3 weeks of the playoffs all have at least one home series.


That's great info. I always check these things before the draft.
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Postby theBigHouse » Thu Feb 08, 2007 12:39 am

josebach wrote:I've got to go with Holliday. BA was the deciding factor.

For the H2H guys... 15 out of 27 games in September are home games including all 6 games the first week of the fantasy playoffs (9/3-9/9). In addition, the remaining 3 weeks of the playoffs all have at least one home series.



Thanks! I've had Holliday one slot ahead of Bay in my rankings for a while now but reading this thread had me up in the air again. However, your post just convinced me to leave things as they are...

(I'm in a H2H OPS league)
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Postby RynMan » Thu Feb 08, 2007 8:18 am

The Loveable Losers wrote:
Mercer Boy wrote:But what do I know...I'm just a Pirates fan...not that I could run the team better than Dave Littlefield or Tracy... :-?


Actually having a pulse and brain waves qualifies you to run the team better than Littlefield and Tracy. I'm not saying their incompetent but the track record doesn't look very good.


:-b
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Postby Ender » Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:29 am

My vote is Holliday. I just don't see Bay stealing enough to give him the edge and I think that lineup is still going to be below average.
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Postby AcidRock23 » Sat Mar 03, 2007 11:36 am

RJ24VC15 wrote:I'd rather Bay, I think he is undervalued a bit, where Holliday is a little overvalued.


I was thinking this too. I had Bay last year and was a little bit frustrated early on but I think that he should be available quite a bit cheaper (or later...) than Holliday. Since I suspect that they will end up pretty close, cheaper = better to me.
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