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Make Your Case: Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday

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Postby The Loveable Losers » Wed Jan 31, 2007 5:05 pm

I would probably go with Bay unless the Pirates really do decide to bat him 5th then I'd go Holliday. Before reading this thread I would have gone Holliday even with Bay hitting 3rd but reading it reminded me of one general rule I like to keep in mind. Batting average tends to fluctuate a lot more than the other stats from projections. A guy that derives a lot of his value from average has a larger chance that he'll disappoint and under-perform his expected value than a guy that gets his value from his hr/sb and to a lesser extent from r/rbi. Since Bay has the edge in leagues that don't count obp or avg either one I'd go Bay then simply because it's such a narrow margin to begin with.
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Postby George_Foreman » Wed Jan 31, 2007 5:17 pm

While I wouldn't expect Holliday to repeat his BA with his periferrals from last year, what I would expect is for him to improve his periferrals a bit. In the minors, his K/BB rate was closer to 1.5 or 2 than to the 2.5 he posted last year.

So if he improves that a bit, he can certainly be a .300 hitter... just don't bank on .320. ;-D
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Postby acsguitar » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:01 pm

I've watched Holliday play a bunch of times in person (I generally sit as close as possible)

He loves hitting 1st pitch and he did a great job in the begging of the year with this.

However, pitchers started to catch on and he seemed to start swinging at more junk on the first pitch.

However, he adapated and started hitting well again.

Holliday is a very very good hitter and he is huge. He looks like a tight end up close.

He can also put up 15-20 SB's if given the chance.

Truthfully I think he puts up 40 hr's this year

Personally I like Holliday but I'm a homer :)
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Postby Ender » Thu Feb 01, 2007 12:10 am

The pecota projections out now are very iffy because they aren't fixed for fantasy playtime, if you want to quote pecota you have to do it with rate stats or wait until they release the next set of stats which will have better playtime projections.

That being said I'll take Holliday. Bay was crappy most of the year last year and just had a couple hot streaks keeping up his stats, Holliday was more consistant and I think the rockies have a better offense than the pirates.
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Postby mak1277 » Thu Feb 01, 2007 10:38 am

Ender wrote:The pecota projections out now are very iffy because they aren't fixed for fantasy playtime, if you want to quote pecota you have to do it with rate stats or wait until they release the next set of stats which will have better playtime projections.

That being said I'll take Holliday. Bay was crappy most of the year last year and just had a couple hot streaks keeping up his stats, Holliday was more consistant and I think the rockies have a better offense than the pirates.


I think for full-time guys like Bay and Holliday, the PECOTA plate appearance numbers are pretty comparable and probably not way off what will actually happen barring injury.

It's not like we need depth charts to figure out these two will be every day starters.
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Postby Secret Avatar » Thu Feb 01, 2007 2:41 pm

I like Holliday. I think he's a better hitter with more power potential. He's a year younger. Plus, he hits in a much more favorable home park and in a stronger lineup. What's not to like?

With regard to his BA, I fully expect it to be 300+ in 2007. Although Holliday does not take many walks, he makes excellent contact when he swings. He had 110 K in 2006. That relatively low (for a slugger) rate is consistent with a 300 hitter. Also, check his monthly spits. From 2005-06, two full seasons, he has hit less than 279 only TWICE and most of his splits are well in excess of 300. I see no reason to think he won't continue the 300+ trend into 2007.

By contrast, Bay takes more walks but makes far less contact when he swings (156 K in 2006) which will put a ceiling on his BA. For OBA leagues, Bay might be more attractive, but in BA leagues Holliday should continue to have a solid 15+ point advantage.

Also, its not really fair to saw Holliday has had only one good year. He's been slugging since he returned from injury in the second half of 2005. He posted a monstrous line after the ASB in 2005: 318-15-64-42-8. He continued that clobbering into 2006. I see no reason why he won't continue. Indeed, I expect further development as he approaches his peak power years. I think 310-40-125 is there for the taking.
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Postby Area51's » Thu Feb 01, 2007 9:56 pm

my .02

I like Holiday better for 07, and heres a few reasons why:

Cons on Bay: His contact rate has dropped down to low 70's, and I watched a ton of his games last year, and when he was going bad, it was really bad. ALso, talk about him being dropped to 5th, and not a lot of great OBP guys in front of him. LaRoche helps probably for protection, but not if that gets him dropped to 5th. Bay doesn't run like I thought he might (30 sb!) but he seems like he could steal a lot more. Somehow I don't think Jim Tracy is too good for him.

Pros on Holiday: Contact rate is better, has better players around him (at least regarding Helton and Atkins.) Helton's OBP and Atkins improving a lot should help. Don't know what to say about Coors and the humidor as the stats are all over the board last year (crazy September). Love both of these guys, but Bay slips a little in my mind from last year.
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Postby RJ24VC15 » Fri Feb 02, 2007 6:30 pm

I'd rather Bay, I think he is undervalued a bit, where Holliday is a little overvalued.
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Postby tluchak » Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:11 am

JB is a better hitter no doubt. Switch them out and Bay puts up Berklike numbers easy. Holliday is the perfect Rockie. Those stats pulled earlier are telling. A guy that usually would ahve a lower average but makes good contact with power and hits 30 points higher because of the park. I had him early 05 at 3 bucks and swapped him low for Helton to make a playoff run. Those guys have flip flopped since then. My luck. Anyways - I expect Bay to lose the extremes (early 05 was haipulling out frustrating and last year he went through a few disappearing acts) due to the emergence of Freddy the Freeloader and Adam "Cockroach" Laroche - so I take Bay even money every time, but if you can get Holliday for 5 bucks or so cheaper its close.
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Postby ayebatter » Sat Feb 03, 2007 1:17 am

Don't be surprised when at the end of the season their power & speed numbers are almost identical with Holliday about 20 points higher in average.
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