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Make Your Case: Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday

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Postby The Cow » Wed Jan 31, 2007 1:04 am

Today I would take Bay, tomorrow maybe Holliday. Very slight edge to Bay.

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Postby gostanford07 » Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:18 am

For whatever it's worth, I think it's interesting to note the following stats from PECOTA:

Holliday's Breakout and Improve rates are 24% and 61% respectively, whie Bay's are 5% and 21%. Also, Bay has a 36% collapse rate compare to just 7% for Holliday. Granted, all of these numbers are based on the two or three previous years so Holliday has more room to improve compared to Bay but I still think it's interesting to note the differences.
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Postby RynMan » Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:38 am

gostanford07 wrote:For whatever it's worth, I think it's interesting to note the following stats from PECOTA:

Holliday's Breakout and Improve rates are 24% and 61% respectively, whie Bay's are 5% and 21%. Also, Bay has a 36% collapse rate compare to just 7% for Holliday. Granted, all of these numbers are based on the two or three previous years so Holliday has more room to improve compared to Bay but I still think it's interesting to note the differences.


Both guys are getting to the typical peak season age, so it doesn't surprise me that Bay is lower as he is the older of the two. I would be surprised to see Holliday have similar Breakout, Improve, and Collapse rates as Bay in a year or two. Tough to breakout or improve once you have reached the approximate age that players have their best years.
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Postby RynMan » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:02 am

I don't think it is reasonable to expect Holliday to repeat the average again. Here's why.

He strikes out quite alot, and walks very little. So he doesn't have great command of the strike zone.

I ran a query through the Lahman Database. These were figures on Holliday from 2006:

602 AB
.326 AVG
2.34 K: BB ratio
5.47 AB/K

The query had the following conditions:

- More than 300 AB in one season
- Seasons between 1996 and 2006 (11 years)
- Batting average over .300
- K: BB ratio greater than 2.3
- AB per K rate less than 5.5

The list narrowed down to a grand total of 29 players.

Only 29 players in the last 11 years have hit over .300 with those peripherals.

If I restrict the query to players who hit .320 or better with those peripherals or worse, the list narrows down to 5 players.

1998 Eric Davis
1998 Mo Vaugh
2003 Jose Guillen
2003 Javy Lopez
2006 Matt Holliday

Unless he changes his approach at the plate, I wouldn't be expecting a .320+ average again. He would be the first player in 11 years to do it.
Last edited by RynMan on Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Postby dannahann » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:12 am

The averaged projections of the mainstream fantasy sources out to date back up just how close they're percieved. The give a very slight nod to Holliday:
HOLLIDAY - 591AB / 31HR / 11SB / 108R / 111RBI / 319AV / 942OPS
BAY - 550AB / 34HR / 11SB / 102R / 106RBI / 290AV / 932OPS
What's also interesting is just how tightly those two statlines match with 3 other OF of about the same age:
VLAD - 563AB / 33HR / 12SB / 95R / 111RBI / 323AV / 922OPS
C LEE - 583AB / 33HR / 13SB / 91R / 103RBI / 286AV / 845OPS
VWELLS - 594AB / 30HR / 13SB / 95R / 102RBI / 289AV / 849OPS
Real close if you exclude OPS as most leagues do.
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Postby jfg » Wed Jan 31, 2007 4:17 am

RynMan wrote:I don't think it is reasonable to expect Holliday to repeat the average again. Here's why.

He strikes out quite alot, and walks very little. So he doesn't have great command of the strike zone.

I ran a query through the Lahman Database. These were figures on Holliday from 2006:

602 AB
.326 AVG
2.34 K: BB ratio
5.47 AB/K

The query had the following conditions:

- More than 300 AB in one season
- Seasons between 1996 and 2006 (11 years)
- Batting average over .300
- K: BB ratio greater than 2.3
- AB per K rate less than 5.5

The list narrowed down to a grand total of 29 players.

Only 29 players in the last 11 years have hit over .300 with those peripherals.

If I restrict the query to players who hit .320 or better with those peripherals or worse, the list narrows down to 5 players.

1998 Eric Davis
1998 Mo Vaugh
2003 Jose Guillen
2003 Javy Lopez
2006 Matt Holliday

Unless he changes his approach at the plate, I wouldn't be expecting a .320+ average again. He would be the first player in 11 years to do it.


Thats great work.

So what do you think we should expect for average?
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Postby RynMan » Wed Jan 31, 2007 7:12 am

jfg wrote:Thats great work.

So what do you think we should expect for average?


I ran the query for all players with 300+ AB in those 11 years, with roughly similar peripherals. Average BA For the group of 20 similar players was .286. I think if you factor in that he plays in Coors, is getting better and should probably see his plate discipline improve, .295-.305 sounds about right.
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Postby Doughhead » Wed Jan 31, 2007 2:37 pm

RynMan wrote:
jfg wrote:Thats great work.

So what do you think we should expect for average?


I ran the query for all players with 300+ AB in those 11 years, with roughly similar peripherals. Average BA For the group of 20 similar players was .286. I think if you factor in that he plays in Coors, is getting better and should probably see his plate discipline improve, .295-.305 sounds about right.


Great stuff.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:01 pm

jfg wrote:
RynMan wrote:I don't think it is reasonable to expect Holliday to repeat the average again. Here's why.

He strikes out quite alot, and walks very little. So he doesn't have great command of the strike zone.

I ran a query through the Lahman Database. These were figures on Holliday from 2006:

602 AB
.326 AVG
2.34 K: BB ratio
5.47 AB/K

The query had the following conditions:

- More than 300 AB in one season
- Seasons between 1996 and 2006 (11 years)
- Batting average over .300
- K: BB ratio greater than 2.3
- AB per K rate less than 5.5

The list narrowed down to a grand total of 29 players.

Only 29 players in the last 11 years have hit over .300 with those peripherals.

If I restrict the query to players who hit .320 or better with those peripherals or worse, the list narrows down to 5 players.

1998 Eric Davis
1998 Mo Vaugh
2003 Jose Guillen
2003 Javy Lopez
2006 Matt Holliday

Unless he changes his approach at the plate, I wouldn't be expecting a .320+ average again. He would be the first player in 11 years to do it.


Thats great work.

So what do you think we should expect for average?


Yeah nice work. I think it's really 50/50 that he improves or regresses.
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Postby J35J » Wed Jan 31, 2007 3:20 pm

Well, not much more explaining needs to be done. I'll just offer my opinion and leave it at that.

They are #9 and #10 in my redraft rankings for OFers

I'd take Bay just slightly ahead of Holliday based on him having a slightly longer track record and a better eye at the plate. Couldn't go wrong either way though, IMO.



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