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Make Your Case: Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday

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Make Your Case: Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday

Postby Doughhead » Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:41 pm

As a guy who drafted Bay in 2005, the year he emerged as an elite outfielder, I like what he brings.

As an east coast guy, I don't get a lot of exposure to Colorado--but Holliday seems to be a real favourite of those that know him well.

Put away your beer goggles and get out your prognosticating goggles--which of these guys is the better fantasy option for 2007?
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Postby RynMan » Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:51 pm

Nice thread - should see some good discussion!

It's very close in my mind. At first I thought Holliday no question, but the more I think about it, the more I like Bay. I think he has more power, will steal more, and has a massive advantage over Holliday in that he controls the strikezone very well (100+ walks). I also don't think Holliday is a .330 hitter.

Tough to predict contextual stats like R and RBI, but a guy who draws walks, has speed, and hits for power should figure to do well in both - the difference between the PIT and COL lineups isn't great enough to suggest Holliday should outperform him there either.

The two points I like about Holliday is that he is 2 years younger, and plays in Colorado.

I still say Bay, he has had more very good years, and overall I think is the better player.
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Postby mak1277 » Tue Jan 30, 2007 10:56 pm

I really think these two guys are really close.

Bay, 28 yrs. old
(2-year averages)
105.5 runs, 33.5 HRs, 105 RBIs, 16 SB's, 944.5 OPS

(2007 PECOTA)
106 runs, 34 HRs, 102 RBIs, 12 SBs, 931 OPS

Holliday, 27 yrs. old
(1.5 year averages)
101.5 runs, 32 HRs, 121 RBIs, 13 SBs, 949 OPS

(2007 PECOTA)
104 runs, 28 HRs, 99 RBIs, 13 SBs, 941 OPS

I think your draft day decision comes down to a few things:

1) Categories - I'd take Holliday in a batting average league, and I'd probably take Bay in an OPS league, because of the number of times he walks.

2) Speed - Do you believe in Bay's stolen base numbers in '05 or '06? Personally, I think that he'll run a little more in 2007 than he did last year, but it may not be enough to turn the corner.

3) Protection - If Bay hits 5th for the Pirates, then he won't really benefit from the LaRoche acquisition. If LaRoche hits behind him though, I think a bump in stats is going to be the result.

4) Coin flip - Not to cop out, but these guys should probably be drafted back to back, unless you really have a gut feeling one way or the other.
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Postby cordscords » Tue Jan 30, 2007 11:24 pm

The 2 are really close, but I'll take Bay because he's put up the #'s a little bit longer than Holliday has.
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Postby j24jags » Tue Jan 30, 2007 11:31 pm

cordscords wrote:The 2 are really close, but I'll take Bay because he's put up the #'s a little bit longer than Holliday has.

Yea, they will definitely be drafted within a couple of picks of each other, but since Bay has been excellent for 2 years and Holliday just for one and a half, Bay gets the slight edge. Obviously you could argue the Coors/protection factors and go the other way. I just think Bay is a SLIGHTLY safer pick.
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Postby RynMan » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:25 am

mak1277 wrote:3) Protection - If Bay hits 5th for the Pirates, then he won't really benefit from the LaRoche acquisition. If LaRoche hits behind him though, I think a bump in stats is going to be the result.


Bay hitting 5th? Who is hitting 3 then?
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Postby jfg » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:39 am

Those PECOTA numbers seem pretty low for Holliday. Zips have him at about 28 homers as well. I think he's going to hit at least 35 maybe more. Add the superior average and I think he could be top 5 by year end. Bay will help you in all cats but won't be elite in any. I'll take the guy who is elite in at least one cat with the potential this year to be elite in all but one.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:43 am

I think they are pretty close. Considering how quickly Holliday developed into a top hitter, I'd probably take Bay based on historical stats. Bay was always a very high prospect and performed well in MiLB and MLB. I have fears that Holliday will pull Aubrey Huff but hopefully not this year.
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Postby jfg » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:50 am

Yoda wrote:I think they are pretty close. Considering how quickly Holliday developed into a top hitter, I'd probably take Bay based on historical stats. Bay was always a very high prospect and performed well in MiLB and MLB. I have fears that Holliday will pull Aubrey Huff but hopefully not this year.


Holliday has a short track record but most projection sites expected that of Holliday last year. Pecota projected him around a top 40 player last year. It's not like nobody was expecting it. I don't think we should expect a downfall.
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Postby Yoda » Wed Jan 31, 2007 12:59 am

jfg wrote:
Yoda wrote:I think they are pretty close. Considering how quickly Holliday developed into a top hitter, I'd probably take Bay based on historical stats. Bay was always a very high prospect and performed well in MiLB and MLB. I have fears that Holliday will pull Aubrey Huff but hopefully not this year.


Holliday has a short track record but most projection sites expected that of Holliday last year. Pecota projected him around a top 40 player last year. It's not like nobody was expecting it. I don't think we should expect a downfall.


I really hope you are right as he is one of my keepers. His minor league stats are less than spectacular. I am pretty high as he's done nothing but produce in MLB but still very skeptical how long he can keep it up.
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